Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

Another view at the pattern from the euro. Normally we see 1050+ hp's and aren't supported so they are erroneous. However the models at the 500mb levels support their outcomes at the surface. The black line depicts wall to wall sub-arctic blocking, which is the high pressure factory.

[Snowman67]

There is hope on the horizon (for me). Temps up near 80 degrees a week from today. Unfortunately, a cold front follows the warm up, dropping Houston down near freezing on Christmas Eve morning. Warm-up on Christmas Day, though:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zdec13.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zdec13.gif

Is there an archive of these temp forecasts that one can access? I'd love to go back and see how accurate these temp forecasts are beyond 10 days.

No, there's no archive. But I can tell you that out to 10 days the answer would be "not very accurate". Pretty good out to 4-5 days, though. There's a tutorial here on the forum that will guide you through the preparation of one of these graphics. Takes only about 2-3 minutes once you get the hang of it.

Thanks. I'm getting stuck at the point that I have to paste the data into the Excel Worksheet. When I click on the link you provided (where column F should have the "0" in it), it doesn't open...

[Cyclenall]

I get my model data here though there are other excellent sources: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html

While we're on the topic of Allen's site, do you know what is going on with it recently? The images for the GFS and Euro got really large and are of a higher resolution all of a sudden which is good for details but bad for seeing the whole image at once (in a loop). Its a headache to use the loops now. Then one the main page when I try to click on different categories for the Euro and GFS, its always the 00z GFS for every category...major glitch. I can't access anything in those pages except the 00z GFS. I have some links so I can still view the loops of the Euro and GFS at the 500 mb level, 1 2m temperature GFS loop, and that's it.

P.S. I hope that 1050 mb high that's modeled ends up over Nova Scotia instead, funnel the warm gulf air up here instead.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Um woah.... This could be epic if it plays out. How big was the high in Feb. 2011? That high will be positioned perfectly for us in SE Texas.

[Ntxw]

Um woah.... This could be epic if it plays out. How big was the high in Feb. 2011? That high will be positioned perfectly for us in SE Texas.

Feb 2011 was a 1052mb high over Montana/North Dakota

[northjaxpro]

If the Euro 10-day long range comes close to verifying and that 1050 mb Arctic High that model is progging moves southward, could we have a deja vu situation with a set-up similar to the historic Dec. 1989 cold outbreak that shattered all kinds of records across the central and eastern U.S.? During that event, a massive 1052 mb Arctic High dropped south out of Canada right into the Central U.S. Plains and, of course we all know the rest of that story......

[DonWrk]

I like the sounds of that last post!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Best get Wxman 57 out of the country soon.

[iorange55]

We always get so excited when the models advertise such a cold air mass coming down. Usually, it's never the "record breaking" cold we all hope for...but it's usually still a good shot of cold air.

I just hope we get some precip with the cold this time around. I'd love another White Christmas!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

We always get so excited when the models advertise such a cold air mass coming down. Usually, it's never the "record breaking" cold we all hope for...but it's usually still a good shot of cold air.

I just hope we get some precip with the cold this time around. I'd love another White Christmas!

I'd like you folks to have a white Christmas too but am praying the -40's/-50's aren't to be seen in those model runs for my traveling children's sake, my nerve's sake and yours (if anything that nasty develops up there and drops you folks will be spending Christmas day with a blow torch, or blow dryer, in your hands.....re those pipes that need wrapping of yours.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Dec 22 the low in Inuvik is forecasted to be -42C or F (close enough).....it can STAY up there!!!

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose had a blurb at the end of his blog today:

"Trending Much Colder? Today’s forecast solutions call for the development of a deep trough of low pressure over eastern Canada and the northeastern US late next week, continuing into next weekend and into Christmas. This trough, combined with a developing ridge of high pressure along the West Coast, is expected to create a pattern that will be favorable for developing very cold air into the eastern half of the US, including Texas. Today’s forecast solutions call for the first wave of cold air to move across Texas next Thursday, followed by progressively colder air next weekend and the early part of the next week. There are indications this may end up being arctic air with temperatures even colder than what we experienced earlier this week. Details are still not all that clear but a trend toward much colder weather is there. Stay tuned for more details in Friday’s report."

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

let me introduce you to the real Old Man Winter (not the usual image one sees but this one is so much more realistic):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Krampus_at_Perchtenlauf_Klagenfurt.jpg

and I see someone else agrees http://rkfitness.typepad.com/blog/2011/01/tomorrows-wod-pistol-and-l-pullups.html

Its the sharp bite that is so memorable.

Fittingly enough he is a close buddy of Saint Nick (in the Old World).

[northjaxpro]

Eventually, some of all that very cold arctic air has to get dislodged southward into the U.S. It has just sat up there for nearly a month over western Canada and Alaska. Things can change with the models out 10 days, but if ridging sets up along the West Coast or if heights rise farther north to the Gulf of Alaska, that will definitely increase the possibility of having the arctic express head southward into the lower 48 leading into Christmas. It will definitely be interesting to monitor this for sure in the coming days.

[somethingfunny]

I get my model data here though there are other excellent sources: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html

While we're on the topic of Allen's site, do you know what is going on with it recently? The images for the GFS and Euro got really large and are of a higher resolution all of a sudden which is good for details but bad for seeing the whole image at once (in a loop). Its a headache to use the loops now. Then one the main page when I try to click on different categories for the Euro and GFS, its always the 00z GFS for every category...major glitch. I can't access anything in those pages except the 00z GFS. I have some links so I can still view the loops of the Euro and GFS at the 500 mb level, 1 2m temperature GFS loop, and that's it.

P.S. I hope that 1050 mb high that's modeled ends up over Nova Scotia instead, funnel the warm gulf air up here instead.

I've noticed the same thing, although I have a pretty big PC monitor so it hasn't caused any problems for me. You can use Ctrl and + or - to zoom in or out on the browser window though (Ctrl0 to reset the zoom). I've used that trick to zoom in on the details those 12-panel ensemble screens.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Asking for anything close to 1989 might be a bit much lol. Look at that 1052 high over Nebraska. Incredibly dense. That front brought snow and all time record lows for us here. Not sure the mechanics behind that front but apparently, 1989 had some massive arctic blasts.

[Ntxw]

1989 had a lot of immense cold air in the low levels, it was very shallow. Same highs isn't always equal the amount of cold, depends on source region.

Canadian is slower with it but is advertising 1050+ high pressures too to the north.

[Ntxw]

0z Euro says NO! Mild Christmas eve for you Texas! No -EPO on it

[somethingfunny]

0z GFS is just silly.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

0z GFS is just silly.

Velcome to my nightmare