ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

interesting map..
http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/2844/fjj.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

from pretty good consensus to the spreading out of the GFS ensembles....happens everytime.. the thing to take away from these is the west bend...

[Stormlover2012]

Cmc has been so bad this year lol, just go opposite with cmc so that means la or texas lol

[adam0983]

Is anyone expecting that Tropical Storm Chantal will be upgraded to 50 MPH on the next advisory it is looking the best it has all day. The outflow in all quadrants looks great. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[Tireman4]

Cmc has been so bad this year lol, just go opposite with cmc so that means la or texas lol

Oh great, we do not want it.....LOL

[chaser1]

It looks like the LLC is racing away from the convection. Somehow I get a 2004 Earl vibe coming from this. Have to see if it can keep convection close.

Well, yes and no. Looking at several satellite presentations, I'd guess the center to be around 10.9N and 52.4W. I have a feeling that the low level and mid level centers are not quite co-located and with the surface low running ahead (westward) as you implied. It appears to me that the mid level is tilted a little to the ESE of the low level center. I guess this would imply some "net shear" but from the west. Whats odd to me is that in most cases that I can recall that a low latitude system is "flying" to the west, this is indicative of a big surge in the Easterly trades. Seems to me that most often this impact a net shear that would force the convection to move west of the low level center and thus sometimes leaving a low level swirl to be east of the convection.

Perhaps just further proof that given the surrounding SAL conditions surrounding Chantal, this might limit some ongoing convective bursting, and thus leave it a bit more vulnerable to the low/moderate westerly shear that might well exist near and just ahead of the storm. If Chantal can get past any diurnal pulsing of convection or develop a bigger CDO, than that would likely mitigate the upper level winds causing the low level center to perhaps be less vertically co-located with its mid level center.

[wxman57]

I'm measuring 11.6N/52.5W as of 1715Z (30 min ago).

[AtlanticWind]

Is anyone expecting that Tropical Storm Chantal will be upgraded to 50 MPH on the next advisory it is looking the best it has all day. The outflow in quadrants looks great. Just an opinion not a forecast.

Could be , they may wait for recon to get there.

[meriland23]

In your guys' opinions, you think this will reach hurricane strength before PR? or at all? or do you think it wont have time.

[ROCK]

I'm measuring 11.6N/52.5W as of 1715Z (30 min ago).

I was eyeballing it off a sat view...not bad I must say...

Looks like your wish for a slow July didnt work out so well...

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rgb.html

Looking much better now.

[Tireman4]

I'm measuring 11.6N/52.5W as of 1715Z (30 min ago).

I was eyeballing it off a sat view...not bad I must say...

Looks like your wish for a slow July didnt work out so well...

Nope, he will be working OVATIME!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

In your guys' opinions, you think this will reach hurricane strength before PR? or at all? or do you think it wont have time.

Doubt it. Not enough time and she is moving too fast.

Also, post # 4,000!!!!! They say the first 4k is the hardest!

[adam0983]

No one can predict intensity you can only predict the track of storms. Hurricane Charley went from a category 2 to a category 4 in 2 hours. I remember Hurricane Katrina went from a tropical storm to category 5 in 1 day. Anything is possible with storms. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

In your guys' opinions, you think this will reach hurricane strength before PR? or at all? or do you think it wont have time.

not likely.. some shear will be affecting by that time and the fast pace should keep it from be able to stack vertically. I would go with around 60 to 70 maybe if the shear is not as high

[Alyono]

will be interesting to see if recon closes off a center. This is moving so fast that it may not be closed on the south side

[sponger]

Wasn't JB saying a few weeks ago to watch for a system to impact Florida between Orlando and Miami in the mid July timeframe (I think he said Jul 12th).

At the time I thought he was crazy...the fact that it has some chance of actually happening now is unbelievable.

July is usually a very quite month for tropical threats for Florida when you look at climatology.[/quote]

You are correct sir; he was actually referencing the Brazilian model (which until then I did not know even existed) which had a tropical cyclone hitting Florida on July 12th.[/quote]

"that's insane". What are the odds? Hey, if South or Central Florida even has Chantal come across as a depression, he gets points for that in my book! Brazilian model, huh? Alright...., anyone out there have any "intel" on any other Peruvian, Baltic States, or Ghana forecast tools? [/quote]

I thought the GFS was the Ghana Forecast system. Ghana knows how to build at atmospheric forecast model!

[chaser1]

I'm measuring 11.6N/52.5W as of 1715Z (30 min ago).

11.6N ?? Here, I would have thought nearly .5 degree south of that point. I had thought that no specific mission was scheduled yet for today. What time is recon scheduled to be in the system?

[wxman57]

I'd be surprised if recon found a 50 mph storm, as the center remains exposed to the NW of the convection. Strongest squalls are located on the south and southeast side. With the storm moving westward at over 20 mph I wouldn't expect 50 mph west winds down there. Conditions really don't look too favorable for strengthening until the storm passes west of the DR, which is why I'm doubtful it will be weakening as it moves into the Bahamas.

[Evil Jeremy]

will be interesting to see if recon closes off a center. This is moving so fast that it may not be closed on the south side

Sounds like you're operating under the assumption that the storm isn't closed off at the moment. Is that right?

[Aric Dunn]

I'd be surprised if recon found a 50 mph storm, as the center remains exposed to the NW of the convection. Strongest squalls are located on the south and southeast side. With the storm moving westward at over 20 mph I wouldn't expect 50 mph west winds down there. Conditions really don't look too favorable for strengthening until the storm passes west of the DR, which is why I'm doubtful it will be weakening as it moves into the Bahamas.

yeah, though DR and cuba will likely keep it in check. may not even survive the crossing being that its a small system. though you cant rule it out of course.. there are exceptions.. jeanne comes to mind...