ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#841 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:52 pm

Notice it is moving due west between hr 48-69
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re:

#842 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:54 pm

meriland23 wrote:GFS 00z 69hr

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

high look strong to north at 69 hour
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#843 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:55 pm

GFS 00z 84hr

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#844 Postby tailgater » Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:56 pm

still has a trough over the east coast protecting us, should start bending right. Probably a fish but close to the Islands
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#845 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:59 pm

If this is similar to 18z, should start bending at about 170 hr
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#846 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:59 pm

tailgater wrote:still has a trough over the east coast protecting us, should start bending right. Probably a fish but close to the Islands

that too early to say
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#847 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:00 pm

GFS 00Z 99hr

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

#848 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:02 pm

That trough is just sitting there. Is it weakening and lifting out though at 99 hrs? The ridge seems pretty stubborn but I may not be looking at this correctly.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#849 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:05 pm

GFS 00Z 114 HR

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#850 Postby tailgater » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:06 pm

111hrs. and it's still stuck on 20W
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#851 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:07 pm

tailgater wrote:111hrs. and it's still stuck on 20W


I think you meant 20N
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact blp

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#852 Postby blp » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:09 pm

The high looks stronger on this run.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#853 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:10 pm

This is the 18z run image for hour 120.. which is the same time as 00zs 114hr image (above).. you can see the difference Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#854 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:11 pm

GFS 00Z 126 HR

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

#855 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:13 pm

Seems to be quite a difference in the scope of that High pressure between 114 hours and 126 hours. Is the GFS right or is it simply under-doing ridge strength beyond 120 hrs?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#856 Postby tailgater » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:14 pm

GFS 138 out, a little different look from what Meriland is posting.
Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#857 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:16 pm

GFS 00Z 144 HR

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#858 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:18 pm

I may not even pay ANY attention to the GFS

The GFS is being changed at 12Z tomorrow. Ran on the super computer with a few minor tweaks. It seems that the new GFS has an open wave, at least as of 18Z

of course, it is possible that the new GFS is a load of dung

Here are a couple of images from the new GFS

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

shows a MUCH faster track and an open wave
Last edited by Alyono on Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#859 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:19 pm

GFS 00Z 156 HR

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#860 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:20 pm

The ridge seems to be building a bit over Dorian at 144 but I could be misinterpreting it though
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest