ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

GFS track seems a little hard to believe but the eventual landfall is easy to buy into though I think 93L or PTC #3 may still have a trick up it's sleeve.

[wxman22]

Gfs has shifted a good bit west makes landfall around the sabine river it shows possible heavy rain into the area wrapping around the west side of the low as it moves inland fwiw.

[Stormcenter]

Seems a little too far north now for that IMO but we shall see.

The NHC track is now on the east edge of the 00Z Guidance.

Yep. Expect more westward shifts in the track tomorrow. Think this storm could track close to Houston late Wednesday/early Thursday.

[Steve]

Landfall about 51 hours at 989mb between Galveston Bay and the TX/LA border. (32km) That's basically Chambers and Jefferson Counties, Texas - Winnie, Port Arthur, Beaumont. Nederland areas of Texas then further east in cities like Orange, TX and Holly Beach/Cameron/Hackberry in Louisiana if anyone still lives down that way after Rita and Ike.

Yes, we do still live "down this way" after Rita and Ike as well as Gustav. Our trees still have significant eastward curvatures and most of the eastward leaning utility poles were replaced. LOL I lost my home in Rita so this is stressful although the intensity is no where near that of Rita at this point. Flooding is a major concern given our already saturated soil due to days of relentless rain last week and some again today.

I didn't think you were all the way down there. Abbeville? Looks like you guys all over SWLA will get the East side. GFS actually gives me a break and more wants to pound SE MS with the feeder moisture. They can have that.

[Blinhart]

Can someone post the composite radar from the area.. its far enough south to be in range

None of the Mex radars that are close enough are operational, from what I saw at work earlier.

Not really much to see on the US Composite yet, but here ya go....

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php

Here is TV-3 in Lafayette, La. interactive
http://www.katc.com/category/290697/int ... ormtracker

[hurricanehunter69]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html my bet for landfall with this thing is slightly west of Morgan City Louisiana.

[Jagno]

Landfall about 51 hours at 989mb between Galveston Bay and the TX/LA border. (32km) That's basically Chambers and Jefferson Counties, Texas - Winnie, Port Arthur, Beaumont. Nederland areas of Texas then further east in cities like Orange, TX and Holly Beach/Cameron/Hackberry in Louisiana if anyone still lives down that way after Rita and Ike.

Yes, we do still live "down this way" after Rita and Ike as well as Gustav. Our trees still have significant eastward curvatures and most of the eastward leaning utility poles were replaced. LOL I lost my home in Rita so this is stressful although the intensity is no where near that of Rita at this point. Flooding is a major concern given our already saturated soil due to days of relentless rain last week and some again today.

I didn't think you were all the way down there. Abbeville? Looks like you guys all over SWLA will get the East side. GFS actually gives me a break and more wants to pound SE MS with the feeder moisture. They can have that.

I'm in SW Louisiana, near the Calcasieu-Cameron line and much to close to the GOM and Sabine this week. LOL

[CrazyC83]

I do believe in addition to the track change, warnings will need to be expanded westward.

[Steve]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html my bet for landfall with this thing is slightly west of Morgan City Louisiana.

It should be 125-150 miles west of there IMHO. If you watch on that WV the ULL moving south with that piece of energy that's coming off the continent tonight, TPC3 is going to pinwheel more west at some point and possibly even loop a couple more times. Best odds are Chambers County then either side, then up toward Sabine River then maybe the extreme SW corner of LA. Just my opinion but I think coming in just SE of Port Arthur looks legit.

[Blinhart]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html my bet for landfall with this thing is slightly west of Morgan City Louisiana.

What makes you say it will make landfall that far East????

All models are now saying anywhere from Corpus Christi to Sabine Pass. I can understand if you said Cameron or just west of Vermillion Bay, but I don't see west of Morgan City. I know most storms make a small turn East right before landfall, but not that much. It would have to basically go due North the time from where it is right now to make it where you say it will make landfall.

[Blinhart]

Yes, we do still live "down this way" after Rita and Ike as well as Gustav. Our trees still have significant eastward curvatures and most of the eastward leaning utility poles were replaced. LOL I lost my home in Rita so this is stressful although the intensity is no where near that of Rita at this point. Flooding is a major concern given our already saturated soil due to days of relentless rain last week and some again today.

I didn't think you were all the way down there. Abbeville? Looks like you guys all over SWLA will get the East side. GFS actually gives me a break and more wants to pound SE MS with the feeder moisture. They can have that.

I'm in SW Louisiana, near the Calcasieu-Cameron line and much to close to the GOM and Sabine this week. LOL

So that would be Hackberry area.

[Steve]

Euro thumbs up

Exactly. A barely closed system crossing the middle of the Yucatan and washing out in the Bay of Campeche. And that was just a couple of days ago. Preach on brother. :power fist:
-------------------------------
GFS worst rainfall is Jackson County, MS and Mobile County, AL with targeted rainfall amounts in the teens of inches. Press "play arrow.".
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=198

[Steve]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

Canadian laying the smackdown across the whole MS Coast with "teens" as well as Mobile County, AL. Canadian ends up landfalling in Cameron Parish right near the TX border.

[Alyono]

UKMET via http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.06.2017 0 24.5N 89.1W 1002 34
1200UTC 20.06.2017 12 25.6N 90.4W 1000 39
0000UTC 21.06.2017 24 26.0N 91.2W 998 39
1200UTC 21.06.2017 36 26.7N 92.9W 997 33
0000UTC 22.06.2017 48 28.0N 93.7W 996 37
1200UTC 22.06.2017 60 30.5N 94.4W 996 33
0000UTC 23.06.2017 72 31.9N 95.4W 996 25
1200UTC 23.06.2017 84 33.4N 94.0W 1000 26
0000UTC 24.06.2017 96 CEASED TRACKING

[Steve]

GFS Parallel chooses to concentrate the rain a little farther east around Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Counties, Florida. So GFS SE MS/SW AL, CMC MS/AL Coasts, GFS Parallel NW FL.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=298

[La Breeze]

Landfall about 51 hours at 989mb between Galveston Bay and the TX/LA border. (32km) That's basically Chambers and Jefferson Counties, Texas - Winnie, Port Arthur, Beaumont. Nederland areas of Texas then further east in cities like Orange, TX and Holly Beach/Cameron/Hackberry in Louisiana if anyone still lives down that way after Rita and Ike.

Yes, we do still live "down this way" after Rita and Ike as well as Gustav. Our trees still have significant eastward curvatures and most of the eastward leaning utility poles were replaced. LOL I lost my home in Rita so this is stressful although the intensity is no where near that of Rita at this point. Flooding is a major concern given our already saturated soil due to days of relentless rain last week and some again today.

Jagno, I'm in the Kaplan area and I'm also a bit nervous about the flooding possibility - I know that it's not what we experienced with Rita, but still concerning. What do you think will be the most severe impacts for us?

[Blinhart]

For those that are not from around here, we are already pretty saturated and most of the rivers and bayous are either at the flood level or just below it, and with a tidal rise of 1 to 3 feet, this will only exasperate the flooding with the 5 to 20 inches (depending if you are stuck under a train or not) of rain.

[Steve]

For those that are not from around here, we are already pretty saturated and most of the rivers and bayous are either at the flood level or just below it, and with a tidal rise of 1 to 3 feet, this will only exasperate the flooding with the 5 to 20 inches (depending if you are stuck under a train or not) of rain.

Pain is coming. Looks like we'll be into the rain before 10am here.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[Steve]

Convection is firing off on the northern end of the trough. Center is presumably south of there a degree or two. Joe B was kind of a **** in proclaiming earlier that TPC3 was never moving north...it evolved North. Yeah Joe. We all get that. You don't have to take cheesy shots at the people who do the best work on the planet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rgb-animated.gif

[Hammy]

Can someone post the composite radar from the area.. its far enough south to be in range

None of the Mex radars that are close enough are operational, from what I saw at work earlier.

Not really much to see on the US Composite yet, but here ya go....

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php

Any reason in particular they don't show the long-range radars on this map?