ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

A longer and more zoomed in loop. Can see a circulation develop quite clearly during the day.

[GCANE]

Judging by the signature of the latest convection along the wave axis, shear is pretty much down to zero.

[tarheelprogrammer]

UKMET now developing this in the Gulf

Image?

go to this site

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

12Z UK at day 7 has a gradually intensifying system that appears to be TX bound

Yeah, thanks for that link. I feel like this system has a better shot of becoming Don over the wave near Africa.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This system is making a run for the name Don again, and could reach it before Florida. Does anyone know if shear is forecasted to stay low in its path?

[AtlanticWind]

Just had my first look since early this morning,does seem like a circulation is starting to become defined around 22 n and 62.5 w

[RL3AO]

This system is making a run for the name Don again, and could reach it before Florida. Does anyone know if shear is forecasted to stay low in its path?

Shear becomes non-existent by tomorrow morning.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This system is making a run for the name Don again, and could reach it before Florida. Does anyone know if shear is forecasted to stay low in its path?

Shear becomes non-existent by tomorrow morning.

What about when it gets into the Gulf of Mexico?

[northjaxpro]

A longer and more zoomed in loop. Can see a circulation develop quite clearly during the day.

yes I agree you can definitely see what looks like a circulation on the outer edge of that convection on satellite imagery that just developed in the last couple of hours. Definitely this system is trying to get his act together and this is definitely something to NHC should look into mentioning in the next tropical Outlook or even tagging as an invest again, if not early in the evening, at least by early Monday morning at the least.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Another quick question. Has any storm in recent memory did this? Where the models showed it dying, and they killed it off. Only to have to name later on? In other words have the models ever failed with something like this this close in?

[Aric Dunn]

Another quick question. Has any storm in recent memory did this? Where the models showed it dying, and they killed it off. Only to have to name later on? In other words have the models ever failed with something like this this close in?

many many many.. lol

models are pretty terrible still these days with cyclogenisis.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like it could be finding a sweet spot for development.

I have seen the models struggle with small systems like this before.

[CyclonicFury]

Another quick question. Has any storm in recent memory did this? Where the models showed it dying, and they killed it off. Only to have to name later on? In other words have the models ever failed with something like this this close in?

Julia last year was an example, to an extent. Models never really developed it and it was not classified until right before Florida. Dorian 2013 is another example - I don't think models forecast its regeneration well. Regeneration is often poorly forecast by models.

[northjaxpro]

This has been one tenacious system. It hung in there, fought off the dry air and shear to reach this point. Now, it is entering much better upper level conditions for re-development. I will not say that it has come back from its death bed because the remnants have always remained a trackable entity. I do think we never really lost any semblance of a circulation, even during the worst times for this system Friday and yesterday.

[GCANE]

Another quick question. Has any storm in recent memory did this? Where the models showed it dying, and they killed it off. Only to have to name later on? In other words have the models ever failed with something like this this close in?

Happens every year.
TC genesis on the SW side of a ULL is an old fact that goes back to the 60s when papers were written about it.

[SouthDadeFish]

It looks much better than yesterday, but still disorganized. I'm surprised the NHC hasn't at least mentioned the possibility of redevelopment in the TWO. It still has a ways to go, but I would put the odds greater than 0%.

[AtlanticWind]

Stronger on the GFS at 24 hours

[northjaxpro]

Given the latest trends, I am expecting a bit different mention from NHC about TD 4 remnants sometime soon SouthDadeFish.

[Kingarabian]

Based on the 12z EPS, the 00z Euro is going to redevelop this into at least a TS, i'm sure of it.

EPS members are split though.

First group has more development, showing a robust TC and are showing a full re-curve east of Florida rather than it coming over Florida.

2nd group keeps it weak thus moving WNW over Florida and into the EGOM.

Edit: I can only count 10 ensembles of the 51 showing development though so the odds are still stacked against in a way, but with these recent development I will only imagine that more EPS members will show development. Those 10 members are generally showing a TS.

1 Ensemble has what appears to be a cat 3 into Houston, Texas. Imagine that.

[GCANE]

Quite a number of overshooting tops just south of the CoC at dusk.

[GCANE]

Also seeing a high rain-rate cell beginning to fire off in the deep convection.