ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#841 Postby CM2 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:28 pm

HurricaneEnzo wrote:East blob also has a nice moisture feed coming its way from the South. Team East blob :flag:

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... t=vis-swir

The moisture is only there to feed the west blob.
GO WEST BLOB!
:team:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#842 Postby msbee » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:33 pm

nativefloridian wrote:
msbee wrote:thanks for everyone's analyses and opinions and updates.
But now I have a question. I have a cockatoo outside in a big aviary. think I should put him in his small cage and bring him into the house tonight? when will the wind and rain start on St. Maarten? #thingsIworryabout :lol:


Ms. Bee, out of an abundance of caution I would bring your lovely bird inside for the evening. I have 2 macaws and I wouldn't leave them out in inclement weather. :)

thank you
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#843 Postby msbee » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:34 pm

CM2 wrote:
msbee wrote:thanks for everyone's analyses and opinions and updates.
But now I have a question. I have a cockatoo outside in a big aviary. think I should put him in his small cage and bring him into the house tonight? when will the wind and rain start on St. Maarten? #thingsIworryabout :lol:

According to most models, around 24 hours from now. I would just bring him in tomorrow morning

thank you
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#844 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:38 pm

I think the western one will end up dominant. New convection firing in the western vort is bubbling and staying largely in the same place relative to the storm’s movement while practically all the convection in the eastern vort is streaming NE. I think it will be harder for the eastern vort to close off with a north wind and a west wind than it will be for the western vort to close off with a south wind.
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#845 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:39 pm

CM2 wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:East blob also has a nice moisture feed coming its way from the South. Team East blob :flag:

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... t=vis-swir

The moisture is only there to feed the west blob.
GO WEST BLOB!
:team:


Hey Dr Strangelove.

Maybe we should start an East Blob, West Blob thread. :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#846 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:39 pm

Edit: Double post
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#847 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:40 pm

Sorry, can't help myself

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#848 Postby CM2 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:42 pm

OuterBanker wrote:
CM2 wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:East blob also has a nice moisture feed coming its way from the South. Team East blob :flag:

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... t=vis-swir

The moisture is only there to feed the west blob.
GO WEST BLOB!
:team:


Hey Dr Strangelove.

Maybe we should start an East Blob, West Blob thread. :ggreen:

That would be funny but I think that would be taking things too seriously at that point. Might as well keep it as banter with in the thread because more than likely only one of these develops.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#849 Postby curtadams » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:48 pm

GCANE wrote:Sorry, can't help myself

https://i.imgur.com/Hhn2mLG.jpg

Is its weakness "shear" pantyhose?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#850 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:48 pm

Looking like two separate features.
Image

Its a toss up, they both survive 8-)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#851 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:49 pm

Some pretty good convection firing off to the North of the west blob. I think I would put my money on a new center forming up around 14N and 57W or 58W as it moves off to the WNW. I'm very curious to see how the frictional effects of the islands will help tighten this thing up.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#852 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:51 pm

Convection is waning in west blobs circulation as it dives for SA. It's all over except the crying. Still time for you to join me on team east blob.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#853 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:52 pm

It definitely has consolidated to the eastern creeper blob thing.


It also has that “look”.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#854 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:53 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Just my opinion, but I was thinking something more like this. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/c6ddd6f21a60bd2f2544ad8b8e379cc1.jpg

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Personally, this has been my thinking for the last couple of days. A lot of hand-cringing about this model and that model while mega-blob continues to chug on to the west. Until we have one (or possibly two?) better defined surface vortex, then it's just unreasonable to assume models are initializing this correctly. I can't see this storm passing east of the Mona Passage, but believe this could well approach D.R. or Haiti from the southeast
It just comes down to how long it will take AND where consolidation finally occurs
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#855 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:53 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Looking like two separate features.
http://tropicwatch.info/ptc9072820201430.gif

Its a toss up, they both survive 8-)

Look at the outflow boundary shooting ne toward the eastern vort. I’m definitely sticking with west blob
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#856 Postby CM2 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:53 pm

HurricaneEnzo wrote:Convection is waning in west blobs circulation as it dives for SA. It's all over except the crying. Still time for you to join me on team east blob.

There is new convection coming in as it is heading due west. Do not dare say it's over, west blob has come back many times before and it shall win once again!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#857 Postby MGC » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:54 pm

GCANE wrote:Sorry, can't help myself

https://i.imgur.com/Hhn2mLG.jpg


Wait till it comes ozzing out of the Leeward Islands like it ozzed out the movie theater!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#858 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:55 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#859 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:55 pm

They turned east.
I hope they have enough gas.
Taking forever to map the wind field.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#860 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:55 pm

Still very disorganized and apparently an MLC in the Western blob dropping WSW. This needs another day or so.
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