ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

New MLC forming? It looks like a shock wave is emanating out of that convection burst right at 15ºN, most likely the beginning of the predicted intensification period I'd have to think

https://media.giphy.com/media/Z6jK5KCgkcCOGzsRPk/giphy.gif

I mentioned the lightning at 14.9 N last night.
Recon is making a run west at 14.93 N now I think they found a 1002 vortex in there earlier?
I also forecast the Euro to shift W over Tampa Bay as a major and it looks like 968 for the 00Z.

Edit to add:

06Z GFS has 1030 MB high centered over WPMA shifted MH track west of -85 from 00Zi.

No surprises South Florida was under the track forecast yesterday morning and we learned about the benefits of the new inverter technology. I'm jealous, won't run on the l;ate season 78 octane gasoline though like my old L head. I think Gums is on to something there with the propane conversion kit.

[St0rmTh0r]

seen plenty of storms blow up into monsters in this part of the world in just 12 hours. I'd be preparing for the worst. better safe than sorry.

[cane5]

At this point South Florida cannot be ruled out. If that trough digs down deeper it could bring the storm right near there it’s absolutely too soon to know especially if it slows down.

[Iceresistance]

Extrapolated pressure is already lower than the NHC estimates, I don't like this trend at all.

[Keldeo1997]

Extrapolated pressure is already lower than the NHC estimates, I don't like this trend at all.

And there's no center to be found

[Iceresistance]

Extrapolated pressure is already lower than the NHC estimates, I don't like this trend at all.

And there's no center to be found

I don't think it's been located yet or they got there.

[Keldeo1997]

Well boy's I think we got stacked system now

[Iceresistance]

This is worryingly problematic, Ian likely has an absolutely tiny core and recon can't find it.

[Nimbus]

Extrapolated pressure is already lower than the NHC estimates, I don't like this trend at all.

And there's no center to be found

I don't think it's been located yet or they got there.

The models might have to initialize with a mid level center near 14.5 N,-75.5 W?

[Iceresistance]

And there's no center to be found

I don't think it's been located yet or they got there.

The models might have to initialize with a mid level center near 14.5 N,-75.5 W?

Recon is really trying to find it, I strongly doubt it dissipated because the convection is getting more organized.

[Iceresistance]

The only thing I can say is 'Uh oh'.


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Uh-oh-on-Ian.gif

[cane5]

For the most part September storms emanate off Africa and fights through Dominica and Haiti and finds a window in the high pressure ridge that weakens and finds itself in the Carolinas. That happens in combo with a crossing trough. Or it stays South and charges up the gulf stream and hits Key West the rarity is Andrew where the high did not weaken. I am less confident that those metrics apply to a late storm in the Caribbean with any clear historic trends. How troughs work in the Caribbean has less predictable historic values aka Wilma that was influenced strongly with cold low front and or trough.

[Chemmers]

Looks like it is expanding quick in all four quadrants

[Iceresistance]

Recon has still yet to find the CoC, I'm getting nervous.

[cycloneye]

Looks like they are going to fix the center from the southwest.

[jlauderdal]

Recon has still yet to find the CoC, I'm getting nervous.

Why all the nervousness? The system is going through structural changes as expected in this time frame, they will find a center if one exists, if it doesn't then the system has become decoupled, and the forecast will be adjusted accordingly.

[Keldeo1997]

found it I think

[ObsessedMiami]

At this point South Florida cannot be ruled out. If that trough digs down deeper it could bring the storm right near there it’s absolutely too soon to know especially if it slows down.

Who is ruling out South Florida?

[Ivanhater]

If the center is indeed down around 13.3 N, that is very far south

[Iceresistance]

Recon has still yet to find the CoC, I'm getting nervous.

Why all the nervousness? The system is going through structural changes as expected in this time frame, they will find a center if one exists, if it doesn't then the system has become decoupled, and the forecast will be adjusted accordingly.

They may have found the center, I feel better now. (Sorry of the nervousness, I got ahead of myself )

But they have yet to sample the center of all the convection, which could mean that this center is dying off if there is a CoC in there.