Texas Summer 2023

[Ntxw]

I ran some numbers and unfortunately, on my part, the hot summer was missed due to over reliance on ENSO phase and not weighing enough on the PDO. It seems, in terms of temperature, there is a better correlation to the long PDO with summer heat than immediate ENSO statistics.

There is a reason 1998, 2011, 2022, 2023 are nestled in the big heat wave years within larger -PDO eras.

[South Texas Storms]

Thanks for sharing the death ridge with Louisiana this year . In Lafayette we have had our hottest June and July's on record. We've tied and now today will break out streak of temps above 100 (8) and no end in sight for another work so we will absolutely smash that record. 100 degree temps are about as common as winter precipitation this close to the Gulf so that shows how anamolous this pattern is. The heat index is routinely above 115 every day, you can't really do anything outside. A severe drought has also rapidly developed this summer. Is it just me or has this weather adversely affected your overall mood?

Sorry about that

But yeah, this crappy weather has definitely affected my mood in a bad way. Just sucks to start sweating the moment you walk outside for months on end. Fall can't get here soon enough.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the first signs of relief are just outside the 10 day period, at least with regard to precip returning. Gfs starting to show this more consistently now with other models and ensembles hinting at it too.

[Ntxw]

Thanks for sharing the death ridge with Louisiana this year . In Lafayette we have had our hottest June and July's on record. We've tied and now today will break out streak of temps above 100 (8) and no end in sight for another work so we will absolutely smash that record. 100 degree temps are about as common as winter precipitation this close to the Gulf so that shows how anamolous this pattern is. The heat index is routinely above 115 every day, you can't really do anything outside. A severe drought has also rapidly developed this summer. Is it just me or has this weather adversely affected your overall mood?

Sorry about that

But yeah, this crappy weather has definitely affected my mood in a bad way. Just sucks to start sweating the moment you walk outside for months on end. Fall can't get here soon enough.

What's really annoying is the cooling trough actually is occurring for much of the US! It just can't get past the Red River into the state.

[weatherdude1108]

Not sure how to post pic, but on the 12Z GFS Sunday August 20th, it shows temps of 113 in Northern Minnesota and North Dakota(?). Only 99-100 in Central TX at same time.

[cheezyWXguy]

Woah the 12 euro is showing an actual front surging south at the end of the 10 day period.

[Cpv17]

Woah the 12 euro is showing an actual front surging south at the end of the 10 day period.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/TkkYVvB/ec-front.png [/url]

I’m not even asking for a front. I’m just asking for temps in the 90’s instead of 100’s with at least a 20-30% chance of rain each day. I’m not asking for much. Sure I’d like one but I’m not gonna be greedy.

[cheezyWXguy]

Woah the 12 euro is showing an actual front surging south at the end of the 10 day period.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/TkkYVvB/ec-front.png [/url]

I’m not even asking for a front. I’m just asking for temps in the 90’s instead of 100’s with at least a 20-30% chance of rain each day. I’m not asking for much. Sure I’d like one but I’m not gonna be greedy.

Agreed. Even if something like that were to verify, it would probably be enough to knock us down to seasonal norms and give us some rain chances, but probably not much more.

Not gonna hold my breath yet, but I have some hope that this might signal the start of the stair-stepping down from peak heat. It’s also also around the same timeframe that the gfs starts bumping up the rain chances some

[bubba hotep]

If seen some pretty compelling arguments that water vapor from the Hunga Tonga eruption is really messing with the upper atmosphere. It was an unprecedented event, and I don't think anyone knows what the impacts will be over the next 3-5 years. We may be stuck with this heat until things can balance back out.

[Iceresistance]

Expecting some Overnight storms, NWS thinks that there are going to be storm chances for me until Wednesday, and again starting Thursday night.

If only the Cockroach Death Ridge was further west...

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1688361817364668416

[Brent]

No 100s in sight here and a TV met in both Tulsa and OKC is posting today about a below normal second half of August. Maybe there's hope for yall. I mean average is still well into the 90s

[South Texas Storms]

Welp the Euro Ensembles keep our hot and dry pattern going for the next 2 weeks...

Canadian and GFS Ensembles are more promising at least. I just want this summer to end!

[SoupBone]

Y'all know who to blame this on, right? There's this guy, let's call him QZman58. He likes this heat so he builds these walls that keep all cool air to the north. He laughs at us when we discuss winter weather, and during the summer, he cranks up the furnace so he can do his triathlons and Ironman events.

[cstrunk]

I wouldn't be surprised if there's no real relief this month. It is August, after all. Fire danger is quickly becoming a bigger concern... especially as weeks of 100F+ and no rain continue...

[Edwards Limestone]

I wouldn't be surprised if there's no real relief this month. It is August, after all. Fire danger is quickly becoming a bigger concern... especially as weeks of 100F+ and no rain continue...

Yup, unfortunately climatology says July and August are the driest months in my area and this year seems to be following/amplifying the averages for each month. I'd say August will be likely be pretty much as bad as July and mid-September rains will finally bring some short-term relief.

The Hill Country is an absolute tinderbox...especially in my area (central Comal Co.) and to the north and west. It's ugly out there.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1688589059328020480

[Brent]

We briefly hit the 60s this morning here.

[gpsnowman]

We briefly hit the 60s this morning here.

Sounds wonderful. Still under 100 at DFW at this hour. Cloud cover has helped keep the temp down but with an increase in humidity. Fair trade-off.......maybe?

[Edwards Limestone]

SOI is tanking.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[weatherdude1108]

SOI is tanking.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

That's good for us, right (can't remember the SOI numbers)?