Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Jevo]

OK Let's see. Not that anybody was arguing with my speculations or anything. I thought I would check myself to see how my specu-cast is verifying

Yesterday about this time I said:

1. It would start moving soon because of the ridge to the west.
2. I said it would move mostly North then NE for say 24-36 hrs
3. I said it would get close to the GA coast.
4. After 36 hrs ( maybe more) it would track into near MB in SC
5. No Loop, just wobble/drift/zag along the general course

So far:

#1 = verified
#2 = 24 hrs OK lets see what next 12 brings
#3 = Looking promising one way or another
#4 = Have to wait, but still plausible
#5 = All the models, pros, NHC, and everybody else says different....might be getting ready to eat crow on that

Loop looks like it will happen, but I may have just been stubborn on the more eastern track and loop back. I see it more of a slow down, drift and turn. It looks that way to me because Ophelia is moving so slow the trough will keep moving past and she won't get blocked so much as turned. I am past where I know anything about how these things behave when trapped. I will apply the same logic as to a trapped lion, and be careful because they are much more dangerous trapped.


Link to yesterday's post page below,
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=73697&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=480

hmmmm somebody call the NHC tell em to fire those Kooks.. Benson is on the way...... just kidding not bad for a specucast

[krisj]

Tallbunch,
What are the locals saying about this on HHI? My parents are down there and are acting like it is no big deal.
We have a tournament there next weekend. Ophelia should be done and over with by then, but I wonder about power and all that.
Just curious what the mood was there today.

Here in Charleston the grocery store didn't even have their normal hurricane supplies up front. There isn't much talk about Ophelia that I hear around town.

[FlSteel]

Jacksonville is in the cone but not in the track, the track says savannah/Charleston so are we ok Jacksonville now with the track above us? Also, 12Z CMC is weird, it moves the storm Northeast away from Fla the SW towards Fla

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Until this storm is north of my latitude here in Jax, it is a concern. Even then, I made most of my preps two days ago. My opinion is better early than not even having a chance.

[tallbunch]

Tallbunch,
What are the locals saying about this on HHI? My parents are down there and are acting like it is no big deal.
We have a tournament there next weekend. Ophelia should be done and over with by then, but I wonder about power and all that.
Just curious what the mood was there today.

Here in Charleston the grocery store didn't even have their normal hurricane supplies up front. There isn't much talk about Ophelia that I hear around town.

Not many people know there is even a storm out there. THe news radio just says its heading east. I went to the grocery store on my lunch break and no one was buying water or anything. People will stay unless a hurricane 3 is out there aiming for us. Right now, no big deal to anyone. They always seem to miss us so no one pays much attention to the tropics anymore. I called just called my sister and she had no idea that there was a storm out there and she lives directly on the beach.

[feederband]

Does look like its heading due east right now..I'm starting to think that maybe it will loop....

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kjax.shtml

[cinlfla]

It looks south of east to me I just posted this in another thread.

[Nimbus]

She has been picking up strength this afternoon and wobbled east some.
The ridge that is supposed to build and bring her south is still to her west.

There is a strange upper level cyclone feature visible in the water vapor imagery racing north up the 70 degree longitude line. Could mean the ridge to the east of ophelia will be eroded on the western side soon.

Will Ophelia be north of the 31 degree latitude line by the end of the weekend?

[spinfan4eva]

Does look like its heading due east right now..I'm starting to think that maybe it will loop....

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kjax.shtml

It needs to move Northeast to avoid Fla in its loop. Though loops are loops and I could be wrong but it looks like a due east movement will mean a leftward track

[cjrciadt]

The models are so teany tiny that you cant tell none do a loop except the GFDL now.

[huricanwatcher]

looks more like a huge loop as compared to what was expected (to me anyhow)

[SouthFloridawx]

[jdray]

that would be an east movement for sure there.

[spinfan4eva]

Is it going to sea and been caught by trough? Its speeding up! Maybe no threat to the US

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

...OPHELIA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...COULD BECOME A THREAT TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST...

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z FRI SEP 09 2005

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 78.2W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 78.2W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 78.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.6N 78.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.3N 77.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 31.6N 78.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.0N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 78.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT OPHELIA HAS A CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY
MEASURED 983 MB...72-KNOT WINDS AT 700 MB...A FEW 62-KNOT WINDS
MEASURED BY THE SFMR AND A 10-N MI DIAMETER CIRCULAR EYE. FOR
ACADEMICS...PERHAPS IT IS NECESSARY TO HAVE ONE OR TWO MORE KNOTS
TO MAKE A OPHELIA A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE
OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY...SO OPHELIA IS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE NOW.
THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE A LITTLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
OPHELIA...ONCE THE HURRICANE BEGINS ITS WESTWARD TURN. A GRADUAL
STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED...BUT OPHELIA IS KEPT AS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE. HOWEVER...TO ERR BY ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE...DUE TO OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING RAPID
INTENSITY CHANGE.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS
AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO STOP AND THEN TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO
DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF EACH MODEL IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY
OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA. WE ARE PUTTING ALL THE BETS IN
THE FORMATION OF THE HIGH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
TURN TOWARD THE U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT
GOING AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS THE GFDL AND NOT AS FAR NORTH AND
EAST AS THE GFS. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 30.0N 78.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 30.6N 78.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 31.3N 77.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 31.5N 77.7W 75 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 31.6N 78.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 33.0N 80.5W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[HURAKAN]

OPHELIA BACK ON TRACK, BY THE WAY, NO LOOP!?!?!?!?

[Brent]

Is it going to sea and been caught by trough? Its speeding up! Maybe no threat to the US

NHC doesn't think so... has it turning westward tomorrow.

[baygirl_1]

Well, as this might possibly be a Savannah threat, it's a heck of a weekend for the Savannah College of Art and Design students to be moving back in to their dorms. My nephew is moving back in this weekend. They have a hurricane plan in place-- quite a detailed one with bus evacuation plans-- so no big worries for his family. But, I think I'll give him a call on his cell phone to give him a heads up.
Anyone on here from Savannah? If so, what's the local news saying?

[SouthFloridawx]

Is it going to sea and been caught by trough? Its speeding up! Maybe no threat to the US

NHC doesn't think so... has it turning westward tomorrow.

hey brent do you think she is moving more east?