99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Brent]

Yawn? I am doing the happy dance if this storm decides to disappear...

I mean yawn as in boring to watch... it either needs to develop or go away. None of this indecisive stuff.

[vaffie]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I really really wish they hadn't cancelled that recon flight today! Now, the models will still be useless for another 3-4 model runs. And if the NHC98e, the LBAR, and the BAM models (http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_99.gif) have any clue whatsoever, it will be within 1-200 miles of the Gulf coast no matter whether it goes due north, northwest or west--that's Monday! Yikes.

[CHRISTY]

FLAREING UP!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

CHRISTY, that little blow-up of convection near Belize appears to have a rotation somewhat. Anyone else notice that?

[EFrancis]

We're now approaching four dozen pages for a wave. Guys, this isn't Congress.

I'm not quite sure if this will develope or not, but, I think it'd be a good idea for recon to go in this afternoon just to have a look and see what's going on.

[EFrancis]

CHRISTY, that little blow-up of convection near Belize appears to have a rotation somewhat. Anyone else notice that?

I notice that, now that you point it out.

[SouthFloridawx]

hey guys what is the opposite of congress?

[MiamiensisWx]

I notice that, now that you point it out.

It looks somewhat interesting, although convection is limited. Why? While INVEST.99L is broad and still disorganized (although it is getting good flare-ups of convection), the small, seemingly spinning area of convection near Belize looks better organized. It may not survive because it is close to land, however. Anyone else notice that also?

[CHRISTY]

i think a recon plane should investigate these feature this afternoon! it looks to like a rotation near that big blow of thunderstorms? the question is were is this blow of thunderstorms moving seems to be in a wnw fashion! opinions!

[MiamiensisWx]

i think a recon plane should investigate these feature this afternoon! it looks to like a rotation near that big blow of thunderstorms? the question is were is this blow of thunderstorms moving seems to be in a wnw fashion! opinions!

There might easily be a rotation with INVEST.99L; however, shear is still strong to it's west and northwest from the ULL over Florida.

[Starburst]

I must say though that it does have more convection than it did late last night and it does appear the be getting that new embryo look on the sat picture above this post.

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks like a lobster.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Remember how bad Katrina looked for so long? Then when it did start to get its act together, it rapidly intensified. Because of the location of 99L, I would be quite concerned at rapid intensification here too. There hasn't been a storm to stir things up in quite a while and those waters are still boiling down there!

[Aimless]

hey guys what is the opposite of congress?

Progress

[skysummit]

Look at the lower clouds. They're definately rotating under that convection.

[storms in NC]

FLAREING UP!!!

You need to remember that dearing the day they will flare up and then at night you will see it fade away just to rebuild the next day.

[no advance]

Seems to have that look. Visables loop to me looks like early stage of a td.

[gatorcane]

models?

[cycloneye]

568
NOUS42 KNHC 281530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
1130 AM EDT WED 28 SEP 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-123

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARRIBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 29/1500Z A. 30/0500Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST B. AFXXX 0219A CYCLONE
C. 29/1045Z C. 30/0030Z
D. 17.0N 84.0W D. 18.ON 85.5W
E. 29/1400 TO 29/1800Z E. 30/0400 TO 30/0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A FIX AT 30/1800Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.



Here is what the squadron has in the plan today for tommorow and thursday.

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOW ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 20N.
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 15N. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION POSITIONS HAVE JUMPED
AROUND A BIT THIS MORNING REGARDING THIS SURFACE LOW CENTER.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 73W NEAR HAITI AND 81W APPROACHING
THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING UNDER THE RIDGE WHICH IS BETWEEN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN FLORIDA COASTAL
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND THE NEXT BIG ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING
IF NECESSARY. RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.


2 PM Special Feature Discussion.