ATL: IKE Discussion

[smw1981]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.

Fairly good news for Houston, not so good news for the area that just got slapped by Gustav (since they would be on the east side...) Lots of rain in a rain soaked area...

I think what you meant to say is would be fairly good news for Houston. As it is now we need another shift or two up the coast to be east of Houston.

Haha, yes. I meant that if Houston was on the west side, it would be good news for them and not such good news for the people who just got hit with Gustav.

[HarlequinBoy]

If that steering is right it will have to move generally NW.....Thats why I havn't changed my map for landfall yet....

Where is your map? I'd like to see it.


Thanks!

Maybe hes speaking of this one.


viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103095

Okay, cool.

[thetruesms]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.


Are you sure?

It's my opinion. I wouldn't be shocked if it hit Cameron Parish, LA, at this point. We'll see. I'm watching the same thing as everyone else and I'm forming thoughts just like the rest.

Cameron is in the cone...

Indeed. I would personally be surprised to see it happen, but at the same time, it wouldn't be like it came out of absolutely nowhere

[HurricaneHunter914]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.


Are you sure?

It's my opinion. I wouldn't be shocked if it hit Cameron Parish, LA, at this point. We'll see. I'm watching the same thing as everyone else and I'm forming thoughts just like the rest.

Cameron is in the cone...

We're almost two days away from landfall. To hit LA, all of the models would need to make a major shift east. Then again, Ike was supposed to hit the Carolinas a few days earlier, so we'll see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the fact that the outter eye wall appears to be finally winning the war...I expect some strengthing as it tightens up...

Wind forecast 12am est

Now 85 knots
6 90 knots
12 100 knots
24 110 knots
36 115 knots
48 120 knots
60 75 knots inland
72 50 knots inland
96 35 knots inland
120 20 knots remant low

Based on ship data showing under 10 knots of upper level shear over the next 2-3 days...With good to very good outflow, we are expecting a higher level of strengthing then the nhc. I feel once this finally gets going it could go a little stronger then the nhc thinking. Of course another suprize like 20 knots of shear or dry air could change all this....

[MBryant]

Lamar University just notified their students that classes were canceled for the rest of the week.

[smw1981]

I posted this a few pages back, but Sean may not be far off according to Don Sutherland...

"For what it is worth, the 9/11 0z runs of the hurricane models (excluding the GFDL, which is not yet available) continued to feature a shift farther to the north. A number of models brings Ike onshore in north Texas, quite close to the border with Louisiana." - Don Sutherland's PM forecast tonight

Edited to say that I got this out of the Tropical Analysis Forum from his PM forecast (I think it is number 20 but I'm not completely positive about that!)

[teal61]

No shortage of opinions here for sure....I think I will stick with the pros now. Facts, not opinions or wishes. This is becoming more serious by the minutes and no one needs to make decisions based on uneducated opinions.

And yes I live near Houston. And no the idea of no electricity for a week or more does not appeal to me so don't even go there.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the fact that the outter eye wall appears to be finally winning the war...I expect some strengthing as it tightens up...

Wind forecast 12am est

Now 85 knots
6 90 knots
12 100 knots
24 110 knots
36 115 knots
48 120 knots
60 75 knots inland
72 50 knots inland
96 35 knots inland
120 20 knots remant low

Based on ship data showing under 10 knots of upper level shear over the next 2-3 days...With good to very good outflow, we are expecting a higher level of strengthing then the nhc. I feel once this finally gets going it could go a little stronger then the nhc thinking. Of course another suprize like 20 knots of shear or dry air could change all this....

Where would you put landfall Matt?

[soonertwister]

The cardinal rule for tropical systems that are projected to be major hurricanes, when you are anywhere within the cone within three days of landfall:

PREPARE FOR THE WORST, AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

[dwg71]

trough is approaching 4 corners region, no signs of letting up. how far east can ike go.

a couple of runs and GFDl could be the southern outlier. eerily similar to Rita, same timing.

[Stormcenter]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.

Fairly good news for Houston, not so good news for the area that just got slapped by Gustav (since they would be on the east side...) Lots of rain in a rain soaked area...

Uh...you guys, this is just his opinion. The NHC has said nothing to indicate this is a done deal. The middle of the cone is left of Houston.

You must mean Houston will be on the east side unless you are not
following the NHC's advisory.

[jdjaguar]

pressure down to 940.5

[Sean in New Orleans]

Remember This:

[Stormcenter]

Houston will probably be on the West side of this hurricane, but, very close, so, the worst weather will probably be around Beaumont, IMO.


Are you sure?

It's my opinion. I wouldn't be shocked if it hit Cameron Parish, LA, at this point. We'll see. I'm watching the same thing as everyone else and I'm forming thoughts just like the rest.

Please be raedy to eat some NHC crow on Saturday if that's not the case.

[smw1981]

No shortage of opinions here for sure....I think I will stick with the pros now. Facts, not opinions or wishes. This is becoming more serious by the minutes and no one needs to make decisions based on uneducated opinions.

And yes I live near Houston. And no the idea of no electricity for a week or more does not appeal to me so don't even go there.

I agree, as that will definitely be no fun, but I think it is kind of scary that the pro mets aren't in exact agreement at this point of where LF will be. I think pretty much anywhere in the cone is fair game at this point, and the cone could still shift (which way, I don't know) according to the pro mets on this board. Good luck for whatever you have to endure though!

[Stormcenter]

Remember This:

Ike is not Rita right now and for all we know may never be.

But I can understand trying to compare the two and their tracks.

[ELF62]

Remember to check the bouys if they'll load, they get busy during storms.

I believe wave heights got to 60 feet+ with Katrina. Might give a clue as to how bad the surge is going to be.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml

God Bless you all in Texas, (especially the 14th Congressional District of Texas home of Congressman Ron Paul, R-TX ) and God Bless the United States of America!

Doc

Thanks Doc...Dr. Ron Paul raised his kids about 4 miles from where I'm sitting. He also delivered a bunch of babies here too. I appreciate your sentiments!!

[cycloneye]

Watch this bouy in the next few hours as the eye will pass close to it.Already winds of tropical storm force and pressure is falling.

Bouy 42001

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm not comparing strength...I'm comparing track. PLEASE everyone know it is just my amateur opinion, but, I can't shake my thoughts with this system moving so slow and how slow it has been moving since last night. Again, just my thoughts.