ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

IR LOOP

Appears it bounced off Cuba and is now moving up the coast ... though probably just a wobble.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband14&lat=25&lon=-75&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=50&quality=90&palette=ir5.pal

[KWT]

Amazing how fast the new eyewall convection has increased so rapidily once that inner eyewall finally quit producing convection and stealing energy from the the outer.
should begin to really deepend qute fast until more land interaction. then even more so once it pulls away from cuba though before the shear increases. will have a good 24 hours.

Yeah its been really noticeable in the last hour or so. As you say once it pulls away from Cuba and moves into the highest heat content in the basin outside of the Nw Caribbean it should have the fuel it needs to strengthen. I'm still not that sure whether it will get back to a 5, but its on the table.

[Aric Dunn]

IR LOOP

Appears it bounced off Cuba and is now moving up the coast ... though probably just a wobble.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband14&lat=25&lon=-75&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=50&quality=90&palette=ir5.pal

will be easier to follow once the cloud debris clears out still giving the appearance of wobbles from the old eye

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/906298592855511040

[JBCycloneStan]

IR LOOP

Appears it bounced off Cuba and is now moving up the coast ... though probably just a wobble.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband14&lat=25&lon=-75&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=50&quality=90&palette=ir5.pal

It seems to me that Irma has been doing this all along... westward movement for an hour, then a wobble north, westword movement, wobble north, and on... Probably will continue up the Cuba coast until it eventually turns NW.

[Aric Dunn]

Has anyone been making long loops from the cuban radar ? would be reat right now.

[tolakram]

Has anyone been making long loops from the cuban radar ? would be reat right now.

you have a link?

[stormreader]

IR LOOP

Appears it bounced off Cuba and is now moving up the coast ... though probably just a wobble.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband14&lat=25&lon=-75&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=50&quality=90&palette=ir5.pal

Looks slightly north of due west. There is that little south bend of the Cuban coast up ahead too. Unless she is pulled radically down inland, and it has happened, I think its unlikely we will see any significant penetration of the Cuban coast. Best guess would be she skips along the coast into that little south bending nook, before beginning a more north trajectory towards Fl. Good chance she sustains herself if that occurs. As others have noted, Cuban coast is pretty flat here.

[ScottNAtlanta]

IR LOOP

Appears it bounced off Cuba and is now moving up the coast ... though probably just a wobble.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband14&lat=25&lon=-75&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=50&quality=90&palette=ir5.pal

If you look at the long term past track you can see the "stair stepping" that gives you a general wnw direction. With EWRC over it should be more consistent in that direction minus any wobbles

[aperson]

Also looks to be "stair stepping" wnw

This stairstepping to me looks very much like trochoidal movement given the slowdowns that occur in tandem with a tightening track. I would expect it to continue doing this until steering starts pulling it N.

[BYG Jacob]

I have a question, I notice that she is indeed likely strengthening, but at the same time, imminently going to hit Cuba in some aspect..both of which Levi commented on. Will this landfall onto Cuba likely keep her from this strengthening she is undergoing, or likely wont impact her strengthening much..

Somebody had an excellent post upthread about this, and basically the answer is no. The part Irma will brush is mostly flat and doesn't have a large desert to dump into Irma, and since she is so large her outflow will actually suck in moist air from the southern Caribbean. she will likely either maintain intensity or even strengthen depending how much of her core stays off shore.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/GeorgiaDOTSE/status/906250080533045249




GDOT Southeast @GeorgiaDOTSE
Contraflow begins on I-16 tomorrow morning at 8 AM. Here is what you need to know. Please share and RT @ga_dps @GeorgiaEMA @georgiagov
4:17 PM - Sep 8, 2017

[Aric Dunn]

Has anyone been making long loops from the cuban radar ? would be reat right now.

you have a link?

no I am asking lol..

[northjaxpro]

The southern edge of the eye wall will graze the Cuba coast. However, I am not sold yet that the entire eye wall will penetrate into Cuba before the north turn. I hope I am wrong and Irma does penetrate fully to really disrupt the eye wall. Wow. This is extremely close though.

[Michele B]

Watching the weather channel, I was stunned to hear people were just leaving tree limbs on the roads. In a hurricane that is going to become a projectile and cause unnecessary damage.

I really am hoping everyone heeds the warnings about Irma and gets out while they can.

My neighbors had their giant oaks trimmed and they let the people leave two giant piles at the end of their driveway. I'm furious, so rude.

I gave this suggestion on another forum.

Take pictures of the debris....from your house with perspective....or with your house in the background.

Then when YOUR insurance guy gets a claim, he can sue THEIR insurance guy!

[tolakram]

Cuba terrain map.

[BYG Jacob]

Also, does anybody know where the shear went? The past few years in the Atlantic it was crazy strong and pretty much killed everything aside from a few lucky storms, and now its just gone.

Can anybody answer this? Is it ridging or...?

[Michele B]

Question: If the Keys get the dirty side of Irma, is there potential to alter the geography of the Keys...i.e. they could just disappear? I have never been there, but look small and the highest point is 8ft. With a huge surge plus wind driven waves, it seems like it could do lasting damage to the landscape. No?

A hurricane often changes the landscape.

Some beaches become longer, others lose beach. It's part of the cycle of the earth (my opinion on the matter!)

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/906293819502542848

[Aric Dunn]

that should be increasing over the next couple hours with this convection...
233630 2214N 07651W 7501 02044 9481 +158 //// 164135 140 123 047 05
233700 2214N 07653W 7471 02026 9423 +162 //// 166133 140 134 033 05