ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

a strike or two of lightning in the S eyewall to boot. slow deepening for now

[p1nheadlarry]

I can't remember a hurricane near this location that looked better than Dorian since maybe Hugo

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d25cb38b657ecdf17c92f41b3d47102ba3660423eb83f6761b9f7c5212c5f9ff.png

Arthur in 2014 had a pretty nice appearance. Looked stronger that it actually was IMO

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Yep and it peaked in intensity over Pamlico Sound. Fran in 96 also had a nice appearance at similar latitude and intensity (a bit stronger)

[plasticup]

Is this thing going Cat 3 again?

It has plenty of time, and sure seems to be deepening.

[wxman57]

I can see that the NE turn has begun. Moving east of north now. Running into the SW-NE jet stream.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1169344318240251904

[Highteeld]

Filling in last 2 hours

[supercane4867]

[Highteeld]

Filling in last 2 hours

https://i.imgur.com/ggm411v.png

appreciable velocities as well

[xironman]

It kind of looks like it is getting its mojo back, but we will see.

[plasticup]

Looking better by the hour. We might well see any upgrade with the next advisory.

[SunnyThoughts]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 041956
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
400 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...RAINBANDS OF DORIAN CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...

A Weatherflow site at Folly Beach Pier, just south of Charleston,
SC, recently measured sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust
to 51 mph (82 km/h).

The most recent minimum pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter plane was 962 mb (28.41 inches).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 79.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Highteeld]

95-100 knots would be reasonable based off the FL winds for the 5pm update; clearly sfmr is having some issues

[xironman]

Looking better by the hour. We might well see any upgrade with the next advisory.

The towering mesos near the center are a good sign for intensification.

[Meteorcane]

Given 110 kts at Flight level along with pressure lowering a couple mbs, could see an upgrade to 95 kt (although the SFMR malfunction is unfortunate). Has a little bit of time to maybe sneak back to major status before colder water and increasing shear near North Carolina should knock it down again.

[xironman]

Given 110 kts at Flight level along with pressure lowering a couple mbs, could see an upgrade to 95 kt (although the SFMR malfunction is unfortunate). Has a little bit of time to maybe sneak back to major status before colder water and increasing shear near North Carolina should knock it down again.

The NOAA plane should go on the right hand side before the advisory. So it could give a bit of data.

[Highteeld]

957-958 mb would seem apropos

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like Dorian is intensifying. My thoughts below:

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1169339981791485952




 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1169350940530528257

[Highteeld]

961/95 kt ofcl

[xironman]

Looks like Dorian is intensifying. My thoughts below:

You used the W word.

[plasticup]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 79.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

Just a hair under Cat 3. I expect a major with the next update.