CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is a tad further north and a tad faster than the 12z run so far. Also, the ULL is a hair further east and the high is a small bit weaker at 54 hours.

[southerngale]

I really don't understand what all the fuss is about a few wobbles here and there. Up until now, the NHC has been VERY consistent with their track and as to now have been very accurate. With the major players - the ULL and the ridge - behaving just as forecasted, I foresee the NHC hitting a home run on this one.

Was someone saying they wouldn't? They're looking good so far. Again, the topic was ONLY if the eye went over some forecast points earlier today. Nobody ever said (that I saw) that meant it would change the track in the long term or that the NHC wasn't accurate.

Btw, there will be wobble comments until the end of time... lol

[cycloneye]

72 hours

West of Yucatan but a little more north than the 12z.

[GG]

They did this just now at the 5pm update. If you look at the floater loop you'll see the first track point is right where the hurricane is and then they sifted the other forecast points so it STILL hits Jamaica. That's my beef. I'm not concerned with the long term forecast yet, that can wait till Sunday. My concern is the shifting around of the short term forecast to not only match Deans position but still maintain the next forecast point. Maybe this IS the best way to forecast?

Just a watcher here but......i am sure they (NHC) keep up with forecasted vs actual traveled positions to learn from if nothing else but on the updates all they are doing is showing .......where it has ACTUALLY been and where it is forecasted to go....

it's an update.....not a view of how they are performing so far......you guys do that for them with out them givin' you more fuel for the fire....LOL

[Coredesat]

Storm2K disclaimer: The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

CTCC disclaimer: These products are unofficial and are not certified by any Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, or any official forecasting agency and may be subject to large errors. Refer to their products for official updates.

----------------

Intense Hurricane Dean (04L)
Tropical Cyclone Warning - Atlantic
Forecast #3 - 2100 UTC 18 August 2007

...Dean moving through the Caribbean with little change in strength...

Estimated Position: 16.2°N 70.5°W (confidence fair, extrapolated)
Maximum Sustained Winds: 130 knots (150 mph)
Minimum Central Pressure: 930 hPa
Movement: WNW at 15 knots

DISCUSSION

Dean (04L) continues to look impressive, but signs of an impending eyewall replacement cycle are beginning to appear. Air force reconnaissance found a double eyewall structure near the center of Dean's central dense overcast - an indicator of such a cycle. Inner eyewall convection has been warming somewhat over the past several hours. However, outflow remains excellent in all quadrants and the central dense overcast is symmetric with modest deep convection (cloud tops about -66°C according to NRL color IR satellite imagery). Dvorak estimates remain T6.0/6.0 from SAB and TAFB. Based on recon findings, the intensity is left at 130 kt.

There is little change to the track reasoning here, as the models no longer diverge as much as they did during the previous forecast. The GFDL/GFDT have shifted south, and the other models have shifted north. This forecast track is basically an average of the model consensus and is a slight northward shift from the previous forecast. As for intensity, whether Dean intensifies or not in the next 24 hours depends on when the eyewall replacement cycle takes place. Assuming it takes place in the next 12 hours, Dean will weaken somewhat until the cycle completes, by which time it may be affecting Jamaica. Reintensification after passing Jamaica is likely, although I am no longer so sure Dean will become a Category 5 hurricane. In this forecast, it does not.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

Init...16.2°N 70.5°W...130 kt
12 hr...16.7°N 73.1°W...120 kt
24 hr...17.2°N 75.7°W...115 kt
36 hr...17.8°N 78.1°W...120 kt
48 hr...18.5°N 80.6°W...125 kt
72 hr...20.0°N 85.5°W...135 kt

[wxwatcher91]

Based on latest IR, Dean has turned to the west.

Vacanechaser, the forecast did shift south, or in this case, west (overall to the left):
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W
1.5 further W

96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W
2.0 further W

actually the very last image on IR2 floater has a new wobble NW. Will see what happens though.

Yeah, I probably should have said "wobbled west" instead. Im not a hard-core wobble-watcher, but I do once in a while

[ConvergenceZone]

I've seen a definite change in direction over the past few hours, but such wobbles are quite common. Earlier today, Dean was moving toward about 288.9 degrees at 16.3 kts. Between 1815Z and 2115Z I measure a distance traveled of 46.3nm toward 282.4 degrees. That's a speed of 15.3 kts. Wobble, wobble, wobble, nothing more. NHC's track looks good. The upper low is kicking out to the west quite rapidly and high pressure is building north of Dean. I wouldn't be surprised if Dean tracks more westerly past the Cayman Islands and goes over a bigger chunk of the Yucatan.

Here's a link with an MPEG file of Hurricane Gilbert back in 1988. Dean is almost exactly on Gilbert's track. Look how Gilbert's core collapsed as it moved over the Yucatan. It regained some strength before hitting northern Mexico, but not nearly as strong as it was before striking the Yucatan:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/rsad/b1utc/hurricane-movies.html#1988

I certainly feel A LOT better here in Houston today. But you folks on the lower TX coast better continue to prepare as if you'll be hit by a major hurricane, because I don't know of too many 4-day forecasts that were right-on.

Our local meteorlogist was mentioning that as well that if the high builds in even stronger than it's already forecast too, that perhaps it may miss the gulf all together and plow due west or south of west, although I don't think that will happen. I think the central Mexico coast seems more likely at this point and perhaps souther Mexico if the high is strong enough..... Needless to say, Texas is looking safer each day, and we'll probably have a better idea how strong the high will build in by tomorrow.....

[cycloneye]

84 hours

Now it looks almost the same as 12z.

[jaxfladude]

I read the latest advisories and Dean now has TS force wind extending up to 230 miles and Hurricane force winds extending up to 70 miles. Dean is quite a large hurricane. I would not be surprised if Dean gets larger than Katrina.

Warning; Any mention of Hurricane Dean with other retired named Hurricane(s) will result in possible flaming and/or will be heard by Dean and he might just want to show us and everyone else off even more.....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now back to praying for all of those who had, are now, and will deal with this 'cane no matter how much it affected them when all is said and done.......

[Extremeweatherguy]

The high is a bit weaker and a bit further east at 84 hours.

[HURAKAN]

[weatherguru18]

I don't know about the ridge strenghening. The NHC said that it is forecast to weaken slightly.

[RL3AO]

682
URNT15 KNHC 182158
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 04 20070818
214830 1742N 06448W 0126 00000 0117 +260 +236 360000 000 999 999 23
214900 1742N 06448W 0126 00000 0117 +260 +235 360000 000 999 999 23
214930 1742N 06448W 0124 00000 0115 +259 +235 360000 000 999 999 23
215000 1742N 06448W 0124 00000 0116 +257 +234 360000 000 999 999 23
215030 1742N 06448W 0126 00000 0116 +259 +234 360000 000 999 999 23
215100 1742N 06448W 0124 00000 0115 +260 +233 360000 000 999 999 23
215130 1742N 06448W 0122 00000 0113 +260 +230 360000 000 999 999 23
215200 1742N 06448W 0120 00000 0111 +256 +233 360000 000 999 999 23
215230 1742N 06448W 0118 00000 0109 +255 +234 360000 000 999 999 23
215300 1742N 06449W 0115 00000 0107 +255 +234 360000 000 999 999 23
215330 1742N 06449W 0112 00000 0104 +255 +232 360000 000 999 999 23
215400 1742N 06449W 0111 00000 0101 +255 +231 360000 000 999 999 23
215430 1742N 06449W 0108 00000 0100 +259 +232 360000 000 999 999 23
215500 1742N 06449W 0103 00000 0099 +259 +233 360000 000 999 999 23
215530 1742N 06449W 0108 00000 0100 +256 +223 360000 000 999 999 23
215600 1742N 06449W 0110 00000 0100 +255 +216 360000 000 999 999 23
215630 1742N 06449W 0110 00000 0101 +255 +219 360000 000 999 999 23
215700 1742N 06449W 0110 00000 0101 +255 +217 360000 000 999 999 23
215730 1742N 06449W 0107 00000 0102 +250 +227 012001 003 999 999 23
215800 1742N 06448W 0058 00031 0107 +252 +228 092006 012 999 999 03
$$

Airborne.

[wxwatcher91]

Based on latest IR, Dean has turned to the west.

Vacanechaser, the forecast did shift south, or in this case, west (overall to the left):
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W
1.5 further W

96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W
2.0 further W

They aren't the same times. That is the main reason why the track shifted. Since they don't have a 66 hour forecast, you can't make the comparison.

Agreed that they are different times, but the north latitude is the same which means you can compare using the longitude, so it techniquely has shifted to the left... but it's really not anything huge.

[Duddy]

I'm sorry, but I just don't see this storm going almost due west for 4-5 days.

I'm calling BS on this model.

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't know about the ridge strenghening. The NHC said that it is forecast to weaken slightly.

That's false information per the latest discussion:

THE HURRICANE IS HEADING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 285
DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK
OR SPEED THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT PERHAPS WITH A SLIGHT TURN MORE TO THE
WEST IN A DAY OR SO. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRINGS THE
HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES
ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND KEEPS DEAN IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY FOUR. THERE
COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/182024.shtml

Edit: Thanks for your clarification - I doubted that you deliberately spread a different opinion.

[PTrackerLA]

High right over Alabama as Dean is in the southern BOC heading west. Southward march for the models!

[cycloneye]

96 hours

Just offshore the central Mexican coast.

[RL3AO]

905
URNT15 KNHC 182208
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 05 20070818
215830 1742N 06447W 9825 00269 0122 +247 +215 109017 021 999 999 03
215900 1744N 06446W 9552 00482 0077 +232 +204 116022 023 999 999 03
215930 1745N 06445W 9328 00608 0036 +225 +172 119025 025 999 999 03
220000 1747N 06444W 9012 01030 0134 +205 +156 123025 026 999 999 03
220030 1748N 06444W 8693 01341 0142 +184 +142 133026 027 999 999 03
220100 1750N 06444W 8350 01693 0153 +157 +129 133026 026 999 999 03
220130 1751N 06445W 8168 01879 0151 +146 +115 115019 022 027 002 03
220200 1751N 06448W 7913 02154 0151 +136 +098 109015 016 026 001 03
220230 1751N 06450W 7601 02485 0141 +120 +081 112013 013 999 999 03
220300 1751N 06452W 7296 02832 0145 +098 +067 119012 012 999 999 03
220330 1751N 06453W 7077 03086 0147 +081 +053 134012 013 999 999 03
220400 1752N 06455W 6908 03284 0145 +075 +045 139017 019 027 001 00
220430 1752N 06457W 6767 03468 0148 +068 +032 135021 022 028 001 00
220500 1752N 06459W 6694 03553 0150 +061 +028 130024 024 026 000 00
220530 1753N 06502W 6696 03554 0156 +060 +027 133023 023 030 000 00
220600 1753N 06504W 6702 03548 0159 +060 +028 135023 023 029 000 00
220630 1753N 06507W 6694 03558 0159 +055 +031 138023 023 029 001 00
220700 1753N 06509W 6399 03931 0158 +037 +016 135026 027 028 002 03
220730 1754N 06511W 6140 04266 0160 +014 +008 138029 029 999 999 03
220800 1754N 06513W 6014 04432 0147 +005 +005 142029 029 030 000 00
$$

[weatherguru18]

Must have been the last advisory that said that then. I didn't just make it up.