ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

This satellite shot begins to put the size of the storm relative to FL in perspective...

[Aric Dunn]

yeah AF plane is 140 kts .. with 967 pressure.. next set will probably be a couple around 160 kts too. hopefully they hit the center.

234300 2235N 07721W 6964 02814 9690 +083 +083 077130 132 095 012 00
234330 2234N 07720W 6983 02773 9672 +087 +087 076137 140 098 028 00

[stormreader]

They missed the center by quite a bit. but .. oh boy look at the wind increase already

234400 2227N 07717W 7691 01815 9466 +161 //// 079153 159 136 054 01
234430 2229N 07719W 7579 01994 9527 +151 //// 073146 152 131 053 05
234500 2231N 07720W 7617 02005 9589 +147 //// 073148 151 116 044 01
234530 2232N 07721W 7591 02071 9631 +147 //// 074139 141 101 029 01

Cat 5.

Also, that eye is terrifyingly big.

Looks like a real monster coming in. Don't know if a large eye automatically equates with an annular storm. As great as Irma has been, she has never yet been annular. Need more expert opinions here. Is it possible that in the short period of time yet, she not only strengthens but becomes annular.

[GCANE]

Radar from Kermit, flying thru center

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 082353
AF308 2411A IRMA HDOB 20 20170908
233430 2252N 07736W 6973 02976 9840 +111 +084 062081 081 067 003 00
233500 2251N 07735W 6969 02977 9835 +109 +085 065081 081 068 005 00
233530 2250N 07734W 6970 02968 9824 +112 +086 065082 084 070 004 00
233600 2249N 07733W 6969 02966 9816 +115 +086 066085 087 071 003 00
233630 2248N 07732W 6967 02963 9811 +113 +086 067088 090 071 004 00
233700 2247N 07731W 6969 02949 9804 +112 +086 067091 092 072 005 00
233730 2246N 07730W 6967 02948 9797 +110 +087 066092 093 073 006 00
233800 2245N 07729W 6967 02939 9793 +108 +087 067095 096 074 005 00
233830 2244N 07727W 6967 02931 9784 +109 +086 068097 098 075 006 00
233900 2243N 07727W 6969 02923 9781 +103 +084 070100 101 078 006 00
233930 2242N 07726W 6966 02915 9778 +096 +083 069102 103 079 007 00
234000 2241N 07725W 6966 02907 9771 +095 +080 071105 108 080 007 00
234030 2240N 07724W 6966 02894 9771 +084 +078 072108 109 083 011 03
234100 2239N 07723W 6963 02885 9758 +082 +076 073112 114 084 008 00
234130 2238N 07722W 6970 02863 9735 +090 +075 076119 121 088 008 00
234200 2237N 07722W 6967 02847 9715 +090 +078 078125 125 089 008 00
234230 2236N 07721W 6963 02836 9707 +083 +081 077128 129 092 009 00
234300 2235N 07721W 6964 02814 9690 +083 +083 077130 132 095 012 00
234330 2234N 07720W 6983 02773 9672 +087 +087 076137 140 098 028 00
234400 2232N 07720W 6962 02774 9652 +088 +088 074144 146 101 033 00
$$
;

[Kat5]

Eyewall getting mighty close to the north coast of Cuba now on the Cuban radar. with such a large eye those islands on the northern side of the system probably aren't going to do anything to Irma.

That's what I be seeing, 1/3 of the eyewall is on the coast now and still seems to be heading closer to west than wnw. Good for us bad for Cuba

Indeed, wouldn't even be doubtful of a Southwest movement into Cuba at this moment. Panhandle landfall is increasing rapidly.

[WeatherGuesser]

A little side track.

7819 posts on the Harvey thread and currently closing in on 7700 posts here. Any of the staff have a high post count for any of the older storms from past years? Is yet another 'record' looming for Irma?

[ScottNAtlanta]

They missed the center by quite a bit. but .. oh boy look at the wind increase already

234400 2227N 07717W 7691 01815 9466 +161 //// 079153 159 136 054 01
234430 2229N 07719W 7579 01994 9527 +151 //// 073146 152 131 053 05
234500 2231N 07720W 7617 02005 9589 +147 //// 073148 151 116 044 01
234530 2232N 07721W 7591 02071 9631 +147 //// 074139 141 101 029 01

Cat 5.

Also, that eye is terrifyingly big.

Looks like a real monster coming in. Don't know if a large eye automatically equates with an annular storm. As great as Irma has been, she has never yet been annular. Need more expert opinions here. Is it possible that in the short period of time yet, she not only strengthens but becomes annular.

I thought a couple of times after an ewrc it was going to go there...but not as of now

[stormreader]

This satellite shot begins to put the size of the storm relative to FL in perspective...

Wow! Looking at the size of the deep oranges. Well away from the large eye. In those deep oranges so far away from the eye, with this incredible storm, you know the squalls are much more intense than would normally be expected (in those deep oranges).

[Raebie]

Eyewall getting mighty close to the north coast of Cuba now on the Cuban radar. with such a large eye those islands on the northern side of the system probably aren't going to do anything to Irma.

That's what I be seeing, 1/3 of the eyewall is on the coast now and still seems to be heading closer to west than wnw. Good for us bad for Cuba

1/3 of the eyewall is on the coast? Sure doesn't look like it.

[Weatherhorse]

This satellite shot begins to put the size of the storm relative to FL in perspective...

Wow! Looking at the size of the deep oranges. Well away from the large eye. In those deep oranges so far away from the eye, with this incredible storm, you know the squalls are much more intense than would normally be expected (in those deep oranges).

Amazing and terrifying.

[KBBOCA]

Latest NWS Miami briefing:

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/906306188131930112




NWS Miami‏Verified account @NWSMiami 3m3 minutes ago

NWS Miami Web Briefing on Hurricane Irma 8:00pm EDT Sep 8, 2017

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSgAmElWbKI

[tolakram]

Also, does anybody know where the shear went? The past few years in the Atlantic it was crazy strong and pretty much killed everything aside from a few lucky storms, and now its just gone.

Can anybody answer this? Is it ridging or...?

Not really a short answer, it's all about global weather patterns, el nino, la nina, etc. Something you can study by using google (wind shear, hurricane, etc). This year we are warm neutral and obviously shear is running below normal, but it's also a bit of luck (or bad luck). Just a few weeks ago we were thinking this would be a slow season due to the early cold outbreaks in the midwest. Still a lot to learn about hurricane seasons.

[WeatherOrKnot]

Eyewall getting mighty close to the north coast of Cuba now on the Cuban radar. with such a large eye those islands on the northern side of the system probably aren't going to do anything to Irma.

That's what I be seeing, 1/3 of the eyewall is on the coast now and still seems to be heading closer to west than wnw. Good for us bad for Cuba

1/3 of the eyewall is on the coast? Sure doesn't look like it.

It's not.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082359
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 28 20170908
234930 2247N 07729W 7524 02309 9793 +161 +146 073093 094 070 008 00
235000 2248N 07730W 7520 02323 9808 +157 +148 074088 090 070 007 00
235030 2250N 07731W 7528 02323 9817 +157 +149 075087 088 069 005 00
235100 2252N 07732W 7528 02331 9829 +152 +150 077086 087 068 005 00
235130 2254N 07734W 7514 02357 9843 +149 //// 077087 087 066 006 01
235200 2256N 07735W 7524 02355 9852 +151 +148 076088 090 067 005 00
235230 2258N 07736W 7517 02369 9854 +157 +144 077086 087 063 005 00
235300 2300N 07737W 7524 02368 9859 +160 +141 078085 087 062 003 00
235330 2301N 07738W 7524 02376 9867 +160 +139 078081 082 061 004 00
235400 2303N 07740W 7519 02387 9881 +153 +141 078082 083 059 004 00
235430 2305N 07741W 7525 02388 9895 +148 +143 077081 082 059 004 00
235500 2307N 07742W 7510 02413 9907 +141 //// 077083 085 056 005 01
235530 2309N 07743W 7520 02407 9917 +139 //// 075082 084 055 005 01
235600 2311N 07744W 7518 02413 9923 +139 +139 075081 081 054 004 00
235630 2313N 07746W 7524 02413 9925 +142 +136 076079 079 056 003 00
235700 2314N 07747W 7523 02418 9936 +137 +135 076079 079 052 002 00
235730 2316N 07748W 7518 02428 9942 +135 //// 074080 082 051 003 01
235800 2318N 07749W 7520 02430 9943 +141 +138 072079 081 050 003 00
235830 2320N 07750W 7524 02430 9942 +145 +135 074081 082 047 004 00
235900 2322N 07751W 7517 02440 9942 +150 +129 077080 080 046 003 00

[JBCycloneStan]

Eyewall getting mighty close to the north coast of Cuba now on the Cuban radar. with such a large eye those islands on the northern side of the system probably aren't going to do anything to Irma.

That's what I be seeing, 1/3 of the eyewall is on the coast now and still seems to be heading closer to west than wnw. Good for us bad for Cuba

Indeed, wouldn't even be doubtful of a Southwest movement into Cuba at this moment. Panhandle landfall is increasing rapidly.

Not seeing it. In fact, saw a WNW-NW jog in the last few frames.

[stormreader]

Eyewall getting mighty close to the north coast of Cuba now on the Cuban radar. with such a large eye those islands on the northern side of the system probably aren't going to do anything to Irma.

That's what I be seeing, 1/3 of the eyewall is on the coast now and still seems to be heading closer to west than wnw. Good for us bad for Cuba

1/3 of the eyewall is on the coast? Sure doesn't look like it.

Eyewall in the barrier islands now. Looks like it will basically parallel the coast for a few hours. But hard to say, could penetrate, but I doubt it, or come off a little more quickly. My hunch is parallel the coast for a few hours.

[KWT]

A little side track.

7819 posts on the Harvey thread and currently closing in on 7700 posts here. Any of the staff have a high post count for any of the older storms from past years? Is yet another 'record' looming for Irma?

Highest combined total was from Matthew which had 987 pages for all threads...Irma will beat 1000 pages and be the first EVER to have that. Ike and Fay in 2008 had decent stabs at it as well but fell short.

[crimi481]

In all your professional opinions - based on Model data related to current and future steering features, (Ridge/ trough, etc) - should Irma keep moving wnw? If not, what reason (what feature shown) would bring it more north? I am in Venice/Englewood Fl area. Thanks!

[ScottNAtlanta]

Also, does anybody know where the shear went? The past few years in the Atlantic it was crazy strong and pretty much killed everything aside from a few lucky storms, and now its just gone.

Can anybody answer this? Is it ridging or...?

Not really a short answer, it's all about global weather patterns, el nino, la nina, etc. Something you can study by using google (wind shear, hurricane, etc). This year we are warm neutral and obviously shear is running below normal, but it's also a bit of luck (or bad luck). Just a few weeks ago we were thinking this would be a slow season due to the early cold outbreaks in the midwest. Still a lot to learn about hurricane seasons.

Check out this thread...has lots of info on conditions

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118642