ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

SC not letting down their guard re: coastal impacts there:

 https://twitter.com/SCEMD/status/906303749731356672




SCEMD‏Verified account @SCEMD 16m16 minutes ago

Mandatory evacuations ordered for Barrier Islands in Colleton, Beaufort, and Jasper according to S.C. Gov. @henrymcmaster . #Irma #SCWX

[BYG Jacob]

Also, does anybody know where the shear went? The past few years in the Atlantic it was crazy strong and pretty much killed everything aside from a few lucky storms, and now its just gone.

Can anybody answer this? Is it ridging or...?

Not really a short answer, it's all about global weather patterns, el nino, la nina, etc. Something you can study by using google (wind shear, hurricane, etc). This year we are warm neutral and obviously shear is running below normal, but it's also a bit of luck (or bad luck). Just a few weeks ago we were thinking this would be a slow season due to the early cold outbreaks in the midwest. Still a lot to learn about hurricane seasons.

Well, whatever it is, it needs to come back.

[Hurricane Cheese]

The $1,000,000,000.00 question: WIll Irma stay offshore of Cuba?

If so, I don't see how she isn't a Cat 5 at S FL landfall

[BYG Jacob]

Can anybody answer this? Is it ridging or...?

Not really a short answer, it's all about global weather patterns, el nino, la nina, etc. Something you can study by using google (wind shear, hurricane, etc). This year we are warm neutral and obviously shear is running below normal, but it's also a bit of luck (or bad luck). Just a few weeks ago we were thinking this would be a slow season due to the early cold outbreaks in the midwest. Still a lot to learn about hurricane seasons.

Check out this thread...has lots of info on conditions

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118642

I wish I could like a post more than once, thank you!

[ScottNAtlanta]

How many ACE points has Irma accumulated thus far?

[northjaxpro]

well that's what happens when you have a historic storm like Irma threaten the continental United States

[Blizzard96x]

She's really blowing up on IR... better make landfall IN Cuba or this could be really really bad for Florida... looking scary

[Michele B]

A little side track.

7819 posts on the Harvey thread and currently closing in on 7700 posts here. Any of the staff have a high post count for any of the older storms from past years? Is yet another 'record' looming for Irma?

Highest combined total was from Matthew which had 987 pages for all threads...Irma will beat 1000 pages and be the first EVER to have that. Ike and Fay in 2008 had decent stabs at it as well but fell short.

Well, she's broken so many other records, so I reckon she deserves this!

[Full8s]

I've seen some discussion of people suggesting to drain a foot or so of water out of their pool to help prevent flooding from rains.

Have no idea where they got that from though.

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I am actually contemplating doing that (seemed obvious). This will be my first major storm whilst having an in-ground pool some 15 feet from my back doors, so I assumed it would make sense to backwash some water now to avoid overflow (even though I'm aware the paver-deck has a positive slope and drainage). Am I somehow mistaken?

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090009
AF308 2411A IRMA HDOB 21 20170908
234430 2231N 07719W 6965 02739 9617 +091 +091 073148 150 103 038 03
234500 2230N 07719W 6968 02708 9560 +102 +102 078141 148 127 068 00
234530 2229N 07718W 6946 02703 9528 +104 +104 079149 154 142 054 00
234600 2228N 07718W 6967 02630 9475 +108 //// 082127 152 146 041 05
234630 2226N 07717W 6943 02619 9398 +115 //// 074115 121 140 002 05
234700 2225N 07717W 6986 02542 9338 +164 +119 079097 109 /// /// 03
234730 2224N 07716W 6947 02584 9309 +180 +120 081086 094 /// /// 03
234800 2222N 07716W 6972 02532 9302 +167 +125 082069 078 061 002 00
234830 2220N 07716W 6965 02527 9289 +165 +131 080061 066 051 002 00
234900 2219N 07715W 6974 02507 9281 +158 +138 083054 058 043 002 03
234930 2217N 07715W 6963 02507 9271 +157 +143 086047 051 035 003 00
235000 2215N 07714W 6970 02492 9253 +165 +147 085038 045 030 002 00
235030 2214N 07714W 6963 02490 9235 +175 +150 079029 036 024 001 00
235100 2212N 07713W 6967 02478 9225 +181 +153 078021 026 023 000 00
235130 2210N 07713W 6967 02476 9226 +177 +157 086015 018 014 002 03
235200 2209N 07712W 6965 02482 9218 +185 +161 091006 013 012 001 00
235230 2207N 07712W 6970 02480 9228 +178 +165 239009 012 012 002 00
235300 2205N 07712W 6971 02484 9232 +181 +168 262020 024 013 002 03
235330 2204N 07713W 6971 02486 9235 +180 +170 281026 027 023 003 03
235400 2203N 07714W 6963 02506 9240 +181 +172 294031 034 030 002 00
$$
;

[Exalt]

The $1,000,000,000.00 question: WIll Irma stay offshore of Cuba?

If so, I don't see how she isn't a Cat 5 at S FL landfall

She'll be a Cat 5 at landfall no question about it if she stays offshore of Cuba. This is bad.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've seen some discussion of people suggesting to drain a foot or so of water out of their pool to help prevent flooding from rains.

Have no idea where they got that from though.

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I am actually contemplating doing that (seemed obvious). This will be my first major storm whilst having an in-ground pool some 15 feet from my back doors, so I assumed it would make sense to backwash some water now to avoid overflow (even though I'm aware the paver-deck has a positive slope and drainage). Am I somehow mistaken?

also it could blow water into your house???

[galaxy401]

Cat 5 winds found!

[Exalt]

I've seen some discussion of people suggesting to drain a foot or so of water out of their pool to help prevent flooding from rains.

Have no idea where they got that from though.

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I am actually contemplating doing that (seemed obvious). This will be my first major storm whilst having an in-ground pool some 15 feet from my back doors, so I assumed it would make sense to backwash some water now to avoid overflow (even though I'm aware the paver-deck has a positive slope and drainage). Am I somehow mistaken?

You aren't wrong, I would recommend backwashing a good 2-3 feet, make sure to close your skimmers so you don't bring air into your system.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Starting to show up on Key West long range radar

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... X&loop=yes

[GTStorm]

That's what I be seeing, 1/3 of the eyewall is on the coast now and still seems to be heading closer to west than wnw. Good for us bad for Cuba

Indeed, wouldn't even be doubtful of a Southwest movement into Cuba at this moment. Panhandle landfall is increasing rapidly.

Not seeing it. In fact, saw a WNW-NW jog in the last few frames.

Looks to be heading exactly towards the next NHC forecast point (09 / 0600z). Wish I knew how to post link, just go to the NHC satellite imagery site and click on fcst points.

At this point they've probably got it pretty well nailed down.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 090009
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 29 20170908
235930 2324N 07752W 7521 02442 9954 +144 +128 079079 080 045 002 00
000000 2325N 07754W 7518 02447 9957 +146 +120 078077 078 047 002 03
000030 2327N 07755W 7521 02449 9966 +141 +119 078076 078 043 002 00
000100 2329N 07756W 7485 02488 9975 +131 +120 078077 078 038 002 00
000130 2331N 07757W 7354 02645 9974 +128 +103 077080 081 038 002 03
000200 2333N 07758W 7155 02877 9969 +125 +086 077078 079 033 004 03
000230 2335N 07759W 7006 03057 9966 +118 +075 080077 078 028 002 00
000300 2337N 07801W 6955 03120 9968 +114 +068 082078 079 032 001 00
000330 2339N 07802W 6956 03123 9969 +117 +063 080075 075 032 001 00
000400 2341N 07803W 6968 03112 9974 +117 +062 079074 075 033 001 03
000430 2343N 07804W 6957 03129 9976 +119 +060 076071 072 035 000 03
000500 2345N 07806W 6968 03119 9990 +112 +064 077070 071 033 000 00
000530 2346N 07807W 6966 03128 9995 +113 +062 074066 067 035 001 00
000600 2348N 07808W 6959 03138 0000 +111 +057 072066 067 036 001 00
000630 2350N 07808W 6949 03154 0010 +103 +066 070067 068 037 001 03
000700 2352N 07808W 6955 03146 0013 +100 +079 072068 069 036 002 03
000730 2354N 07808W 6970 03126 0008 +107 +075 075069 070 034 003 03
000800 2356N 07808W 6956 03148 0016 +102 +078 074068 068 /// /// 03
000830 2358N 07808W 6954 03151 0014 +105 +060 078069 069 /// /// 03
000900 2400N 07808W 6969 03134 0017 +105 +057 080068 068 /// /// 03

[dukeblue219]

Brand new vortex message from AF:
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 145kts (~ 166.9mph)

Full message:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 0:10Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 24
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 23:52:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°08'N 77°12'W (22.1333N 77.2W)
B. Center Fix Location: 68 statute miles (110 km) to the NE (41°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,440m (8,005ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 145kts (~ 166.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNW (343°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 79° at 154kts (From between the ENE and E at ~ 177.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NNW (343°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 925mb (27.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 154kts (~ 177.2mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NNW (343°) from the flight level center at 23:45:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 190° at 9kts (From the S at 10mph)

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906308934360858624




Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher 3m3 minutes ago

Expect there to be plenty of wind from Mid-Atlantic right down the coast by late wknd based on pressure gardient alone. 100mb HP to #Irma

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090010
AF308 2411A IRMA HDOB 22 20170908
235430 2203N 07716W 6969 02504 //// +169 //// 302039 041 034 005 05
235500 2204N 07717W 6967 02506 //// +163 //// 307034 038 035 004 01
235530 2205N 07718W 6970 02495 //// +167 //// 320029 033 030 003 01
235600 2207N 07719W 6963 02499 //// +164 //// 338024 026 020 002 01
235630 2208N 07718W 6973 02480 9239 +169 //// 359020 023 017 002 05
235700 2210N 07717W 6963 02490 9230 +178 +169 032017 020 /// /// 03
235730 2210N 07715W 6965 02484 9222 +181 +168 051013 016 007 002 00
235800 2210N 07714W 6973 02471 9223 +179 +168 101011 012 009 001 03
235830 2209N 07712W 6967 02481 9223 +181 +169 166011 014 009 002 00
235900 2208N 07711W 6967 02482 9218 +190 +170 203018 019 016 002 00
235930 2206N 07709W 6967 02488 9228 +186 +170 214025 030 025 003 00
000000 2205N 07708W 6967 02494 9241 +183 +171 216035 039 028 002 00
000030 2204N 07707W 6961 02520 9244 +193 +171 218048 054 054 003 00
000100 2203N 07705W 6965 02531 9268 +182 +171 222069 077 083 002 03
000130 2201N 07704W 6968 02564 //// +156 //// 227094 100 121 000 05
000200 2200N 07703W 6950 02621 9420 +151 //// 231105 107 120 001 05
000230 2159N 07702W 6981 02627 9481 +143 +143 227110 112 /// /// 03
000300 2159N 07702W 6981 02627 9519 +133 +133 229111 116 /// /// 03
000330 2157N 07659W 6969 02713 9568 +120 +120 227116 120 114 028 00
000400 2156N 07658W 6957 02758 9605 +109 +109 221106 113 111 021 00
$$
;