ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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RL3AO
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Re:

#8541 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:13 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Keep in mind the storm is STILL moving slightly East of the NHC's track...and has consistently done so since this time yesterday.



Its right on track (maybe a few miles west of the forecast).
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Re:

#8542 Postby funster » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:14 pm

dhweather wrote:With the outflow restricted to the west and south, the dry air, I am beginning to think that Gus won't make it to category 4 before landfall. If we are lucky, maybe he'll drop to a 2.



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That would be nice! I wander if this will still carry a Cat 4 surge or if the surge will be more like a Cat 3 or Cat 2 level surge. The smaller surge the better and easier it will be for New Orleans to avoid major flooding. I know Nagin was worried about surge punching holes in the Harvey canal yesterday.
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8543 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:15 pm

Oh heavens..."east of the forecast"..."no its not". No time for that people.
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Re: Re:

#8544 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:16 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Keep in mind the storm is STILL moving slightly East of the NHC's track...and has consistently done so since this time yesterday.



Its right on track (maybe a few miles west of the forecast).


Bring up a satellite loop...add the forecast points and follow the eye forward while it's visible. The motion of the system remains constant and the storm is still slightly east of the forecast point.

Best I can do for you friend...
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8545 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:16 pm

1800Z
Image
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8546 Postby soonertwister » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:17 pm

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#8547 Postby funster » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:17 pm

Source for Nagin's Harvey Canal remarks.

"For the Westbank, you were spared in Katrina," Nagin said. "This is not that type of storm. The Harvey Canal is not complete. There’s holes in it. The surge will punch holes and will fill up the Westbank."
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8548 Postby ColdFusion » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:18 pm

Its moving so fast with no signs of slowing. And yeah, I think the window of becoming a Cat 4 is shut.
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#8549 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:18 pm

Image

Beginning to look better organized.
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#8550 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:18 pm

this may be a bad/silly question...but isn't it worse for surge and wind for New Orleans if the storm does his just west of it because this storm is moving so fast...ie the speed the storm is moving in the NE quadrant gets added to the wind speed?
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8551 Postby cpdaman » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:19 pm

cpdaman wrote:CNN met just made a good comment IMO that with a storm moving at the speed gustav is it will not just "explode" as it hit's the loop current, because sometimes there can be a bit (assuming 2 or so hours) of a lag effect

so i would look to see over the next two hours if this lag effect kicks in (and not write off intensification in any way, shape, or form just yet) , since she is on the very nothern extreme of the loop current now and leaving it in the next hour or two


look at the latest ramdis loop.....slow it down......and watch frames encompassing times from 1845 thru 1910 looks like a "modest blowup" of convection on NE side of eye, with better structure to boot, he may be ready to silence the nay sayers....this IMO is his last chance to return to being a cat 4 .....watch this ramdis loop carefully

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html
Last edited by cpdaman on Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#8552 Postby ColdFusion » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:19 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Beginning to look better organized.


agreed, in my opinion, the best 'look' its had all day.
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Re: Re:

#8553 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:19 pm

smw1981 wrote:
ColdFusion wrote:
funster wrote:The NHC's path seems to be right of all the computer models. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html They must think the models are a little out to lunch.


Remember wxman57's stat from yesterday that in a 10 year study, roughly 75% of Gulf Storms go to the right of the official track.


The only thing that concerns me (for my family and friends in Mobile and on the MGC) is this! My mom and I were talking earlier about Dennis...the NHC track had it hitting Mobile directly the night before it was supposed to hit. My mom had come to stay with me farther inland because my dad refused to leave their river house (stupid, we know...but he is stubborn). That night, my mom and I followed the storm for hours (on S2k!) because we were so worried. It ended up jogging east at the last second and hit between Santa Rosa Island and Navarre beach (a good 2 hour car ride from Mobile), and I don't even remember it raining in Mobile that day lol.

I tried to find these tracks on the archives, but for some reason there are only 9 pages of Dennis advisories. Regardless, we have seen storms do this time and time again (Georges, Ivan, Dennis, etc.), making we wonder if Gus won't do the same. Luckily, MGC has evacuation orders now (finally!), but I just hope people actually heeded the warnings.


One thing you will find with the storms that did turn East is that more often than not they were on an almost North track before they turned as opposed to a NW track. Not saying it won't happen, but those are some of the facts. I am concerned too since my Mom lives over in FWB area.
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Re: Re:

#8554 Postby artist » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:20 pm

Bunkertor wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Recon shows the center right on forecast line.


Is there a link to track those flights ?

here is the link for the recon obs. For the latest obs I would probably start around page 53.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102749
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Re: Re:

#8555 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:22 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
Bring up a satellite loop...add the forecast points and follow the eye forward while it's visible. The motion of the system remains constant and the storm is still slightly east of the forecast point.

Best I can do for you friend...



Or you could use recon fixes which are much more accurate than guessing on satellite.

Image

Thats even better my friend.
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8556 Postby cpdaman » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:24 pm

thru 1915 now , ramdis shows what i would call obvious organization and quite rapid IMO

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html
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Re: Cat. 3 Hurricane Gustav in Gulf of Mexico

#8557 Postby Buck » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:25 pm

cpdaman wrote:thru 1915 now , ramdis shows what i would call obvious organization and quite rapid IMO

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html


Definitely.
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#8558 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:25 pm

Looks like Gustav is waking up on visible for the first time since Cuba.
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#8559 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:25 pm

This storm is looking worse and worse by the hour...The shear and dry air appear to be winning the war......Regardless of how low the winds may end up being upon landfall, this is still going to bring A LOT of rain, and probably flodding rains since it won't be moving that fast once it hits land.
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#8560 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:26 pm

Eye becoming much more impressive in the last hour, probably undergoing a modest strengthening now again. Convection now also forming in the NE eyewall again...may well be a sign that shear is easing off, I think the chances of this weakening below major strength is decreasing unless something causes it.
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