Weatherfreak000 wrote:Keep in mind the storm is STILL moving slightly East of the NHC's track...and has consistently done so since this time yesterday.
Its right on track (maybe a few miles west of the forecast).
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Weatherfreak000 wrote:Keep in mind the storm is STILL moving slightly East of the NHC's track...and has consistently done so since this time yesterday.
dhweather wrote:With the outflow restricted to the west and south, the dry air, I am beginning to think that Gus won't make it to category 4 before landfall. If we are lucky, maybe he'll drop to a 2.
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RL3AO wrote:Weatherfreak000 wrote:Keep in mind the storm is STILL moving slightly East of the NHC's track...and has consistently done so since this time yesterday.
Its right on track (maybe a few miles west of the forecast).
"For the Westbank, you were spared in Katrina," Nagin said. "This is not that type of storm. The Harvey Canal is not complete. There’s holes in it. The surge will punch holes and will fill up the Westbank."
cpdaman wrote:CNN met just made a good comment IMO that with a storm moving at the speed gustav is it will not just "explode" as it hit's the loop current, because sometimes there can be a bit (assuming 2 or so hours) of a lag effect
so i would look to see over the next two hours if this lag effect kicks in (and not write off intensification in any way, shape, or form just yet) , since she is on the very nothern extreme of the loop current now and leaving it in the next hour or two
HURAKAN wrote:
Beginning to look better organized.
smw1981 wrote:ColdFusion wrote:funster wrote:The NHC's path seems to be right of all the computer models. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html They must think the models are a little out to lunch.
Remember wxman57's stat from yesterday that in a 10 year study, roughly 75% of Gulf Storms go to the right of the official track.
The only thing that concerns me (for my family and friends in Mobile and on the MGC) is this! My mom and I were talking earlier about Dennis...the NHC track had it hitting Mobile directly the night before it was supposed to hit. My mom had come to stay with me farther inland because my dad refused to leave their river house (stupid, we know...but he is stubborn). That night, my mom and I followed the storm for hours (on S2k!) because we were so worried. It ended up jogging east at the last second and hit between Santa Rosa Island and Navarre beach (a good 2 hour car ride from Mobile), and I don't even remember it raining in Mobile that day lol.
I tried to find these tracks on the archives, but for some reason there are only 9 pages of Dennis advisories. Regardless, we have seen storms do this time and time again (Georges, Ivan, Dennis, etc.), making we wonder if Gus won't do the same. Luckily, MGC has evacuation orders now (finally!), but I just hope people actually heeded the warnings.
Bunkertor wrote:RL3AO wrote:Recon shows the center right on forecast line.
Is there a link to track those flights ?
Weatherfreak000 wrote:
Bring up a satellite loop...add the forecast points and follow the eye forward while it's visible. The motion of the system remains constant and the storm is still slightly east of the forecast point.
Best I can do for you friend...
cpdaman wrote:thru 1915 now , ramdis shows what i would call obvious organization and quite rapid IMO
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html
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