ATL: IRMA - Models

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Ken711
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8541 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:50 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:What's with the more NW movement after landfall? I noticed many Euro ensembles had the same thing. Is there any chance of that happening further south and going inland somewhere along the FL cost?


Is it the high dropping down centered over NY perhaps?
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8542 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:52 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:I'd ignore the GFS. It consistently keeps having to correct its north bias. Unless the vast majority of the models shift east I wouldn't buy into it for now.


The models will fluctuate 20-30 miles one way or another each run I would imagine..overall not much of a change with the 18z GFS. If you correct for its right bias then you would have a Florida landfall most likely.

If the Euro was to trend east overnight then I would consider it more.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8543 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:53 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:What's with the more NW movement after landfall? I noticed many Euro ensembles had the same thing. Is there any chance of that happening further south and going inland somewhere along the FL cost?


No. It's forcing it from the high pressure building into the NE US. It's been a potential feature on the models for about a week. A lot of times we are looking for the trough that's going to take x storm out. In this case, it's the complete opposite. The only model that has the hook notably far south is the JMA which brings it over to Arkansas. It's been a left outlier, so I don't put that much stock in its end game for Irma.
Last edited by Steve on Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8544 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:54 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:I'd ignore the GFS. It consistently keeps having to correct its north bias. Unless the vast majority of the models shift east I wouldn't buy into it for now.


The models will fluctuate 20-30 miles one way or another each run I would imagine..overall not much of a change with the 18z GFS. If you correct for its right bias then you would have a Florida landfall most likely.

If the Euro was to trend east overnight then I would consider it more.


It probably will, just not as much as yesterday, and the next run will move back west, just not as much as the day before. I could go on ... :)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8545 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:57 pm

Steve wrote:No (response to xironman). I think land interaction on Florida will degrade it. However, Bahamas to NC in the SW Atlantic has been a hot spot for several years in a row as I'm sure it often is in the warm AMO periods. I could see it intensifying and hitting as a 3 or 4 but 900mb in that GFS run assumes it stays over the water. I'd buy 930ish which is devastating enough for sure. NAVGEM is initialized, CMC should be rolling shortly and HWRF looks like it is going to do a number on at least the southern Bahamas which many of us were outlining mid last week as the #1 concern. Looks really bad so far on the HWRF run, like a freight train coming.


Seems reasonable, my current guess is the storm won't go so deep in the peninsula to degrade the core, so once it knocks back into the ocean it will be ready to go. The TCHP seems pretty excessive for the area now, warmer than the loop current. The 200mb winds seem to be headed in the same way as the storm when it is so I don't know if they will rip it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8546 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:58 pm

tolakram wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
The models will fluctuate 20-30 miles one way or another each run I would imagine..overall not much of a change with the 18z GFS. If you correct for its right bias then you would have a Florida landfall most likely.

If the Euro was to trend east overnight then I would consider it more.


It probably will, just not as much as yesterday, and the next run will move back west, just not as much as the day before. I could go on ... :)


Mark will said. Has there ever been a time where models could start making a wider swings this late in the game?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8547 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:00 pm

Bamajamma,

Run this. Please ignore what NAM does with Irma. It's a fail. It links up with the southern trough then the NE trough is slower to move out and picks up Irma. Only use this run to look at eastern Canada and the Great Lakes. Near the end of the run, you will see high pressure (red on this model) taking over the NE. The flow around it, clockwise, moves Irma west before it gets out.

Edit forgot the link

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=485
Last edited by Steve on Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8548 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:02 pm

Steve wrote:
bamajammer4eva wrote:What's with the more NW movement after landfall? I noticed many Euro ensembles had the same thing. Is there any chance of that happening further south and going inland somewhere along the FL cost?


No. It's forcing it from the high pressure building into the NE US. It's been a potential feature on the models for about a week. A lot of times we are looking for the trough that's going to take x storm out. In this case, it's the complete opposite. The only model that has the hook notably far south is the JMA which brings it over to Arkansas. It's been a left outlier, so I don't put that much stock in its end game for Irma.


Also that short wave diving south into south alabama is eroding more of the southern extension of the west atlantic midlevel ridge, thus creating N-NW orientation.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8549 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:09 pm

Based on the 12z EC ensemble mean run, its possible the operational model the next cycle might be nudged westward.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8550 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:14 pm

HWRF @ 54hrs Trend....

Slightly N from the 12z run

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8551 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:15 pm

Ken711 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:If the Euro was to trend east overnight then I would consider it more.


It probably will, just not as much as yesterday, and the next run will move back west, just not as much as the day before. I could go on ... :)


Mark will said. Has there ever been a time where models could start making a wider swings this late in the game?


Not for years, generally at this range they are good enough to lock in a track, you'll see tighter and tighter clustering, but still don't know if they will settle more east or west. Matthew last year was a good example of a bunch of east shifts in a row, and then back west. This is from memory ... I have all the model runs saved and I'm reviewing them when I have time. In my amateur opinion this setup looks simpler than Matthew. The GFS had Matthew doing loops near the end of a few runs and no model did a good job predicting the sudden landfall and epic flooding in North Carolina, that I recall anyway.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8552 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:23 pm

HWRF about .3 degrees N of the previous run @ 63hrs
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8553 Postby NYR__1994 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:25 pm

birddogsc wrote:
Vdogg wrote:That's the 4th consecutive model run with a landfall in SC. Hopefully they are paying attention to this.


I can tell you that the state is really paying attention to the model runs and has already activated several planning cells with more coming online tomorrow.

The thing about all these runs are that they are ending up in a fairly narrow band from about Savannah to below Charleston.


That is what has me most concerned here in Savannah. While the individual models have differed how they got here, they all seem to bring s land falling Irma between Brunswick and Charleston...Run, after run After run...

At this point I am hoping for a Matthew type outcome, but I fear it is going to be way worse for the Georgia and SC coasts
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8554 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:28 pm

Image
Track from jt has been adjusted from the previous post.Still landfialls
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8555 Postby Frank P » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:34 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8556 Postby Frank P » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:38 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8557 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:39 pm

18Z HWRF misses FL to the east, follows the GFS
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8558 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:39 pm

18z HMON with Miami landfall, out near Melbourne, clipping Cape Canaveral, then landfall in Southern Georgia (near Brunswick)

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8559 Postby MetroMike » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:42 pm

Models keep insisting and taunting East coast Florida residents and visitors on keeping this JUST offshore.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8560 Postby Frank P » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:42 pm

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