ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[msbee]

Latest Saved Loop. TS Gabrielle @ 5pm?

http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/209/9to.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Good Lord, my little island is right in between those 2 systems. I hope they don't decide to join forces right on top of us.

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop

[NDG]

So far what I take out of the recon is that 97L has a well established surface cyclonic closed circulation, now it just needs to find a better defined LLC, IMO, which I think is in the process of doing.

[HurricaneDREW92]

My track for 97L/Gabrielle. Red track I'd give a 2/3 chance, orange a 1/3 chance.



Would be cool if some other people made some tracks, thx

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[brunota2003]

Just so everyone remembers, we do have mark up maps for S2K!

Link to the maps here:
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113481

[HurricaneDREW92]

Confirmation of some 30kt(35mph) winds

000
URNT15 KNHC 041857
AF301 01DDA INVEST HDOB 13 20130904
184900 1543N 06430W 9776 00294 0107 +255 +223 175023 025 013 000 03
184930 1544N 06430W 9773 00296 0106 +254 +225 177022 023 014 000 03
185000 1546N 06430W 9775 00295 0106 +254 +222 175021 022 015 000 03
185030 1548N 06430W 9773 00297 0108 +249 +227 180023 024 019 001 00
185100 1550N 06430W 9774 00297 0109 +249 +228 184023 024 019 001 00
185130 1551N 06430W 9774 00297 0108 +250 +222 182022 023 021 002 00
185200 1553N 06430W 9773 00298 0108 +252 +217 185023 023 020 001 03
185230 1555N 06430W 9774 00296 0108 +254 +219 186024 024 021 000 00
185300 1556N 06430W 9774 00297 0108 +248 +223 181024 025 020 000 00
185330 1558N 06430W 9774 00296 0108 +247 +219 180024 025 018 001 03
185400 1600N 06430W 9773 00297 0109 +245 +217 179025 025 022 001 03
185430 1602N 06430W 9773 00298 0110 +245 +214 176025 025 019 002 03
185500 1603N 06430W 9774 00296 0110 +246 +209 172024 025 019 001 03
185530 1605N 06430W 9774 00297 0110 +242 +213 171023 024 019 002 03
185600 1607N 06430W 9774 00299 0111 +237 +221 157020 023 021 002 03
185630 1609N 06430W 9775 00298 0111 +238 +229 154021 022 021 001 03
185700 1610N 06430W 9774 00299 0112 +232 +231 158023 025 022 002 05
185730 1612N 06430W 9773 00298 0111 +230 //// 166028 029 024 001 05
185800 1614N 06430W 9772 00299 0111 +241 +227 170026 029 022 003 03
185830 1615N 06430W 9773 00299 0110 +249 +215 171024 025 020 003 03
$$
;

[ROCK]

looking at the radar loop, you can see a boundary running up into PR....that doesnt lend much credence to something right at the surface...but i guess close enough...

[tolakram]

Confirmation of some 30kt(35mph) winds

000
URNT15 KNHC 041857
AF301 01DDA INVEST HDOB 13 20130904
184900 1543N 06430W 9776 00294 0107 +255 +223 175023 025 013 000 03
184930 1544N 06430W 9773 00296 0106 +254 +225 177022 023 014 000 03
185000 1546N 06430W 9775 00295 0106 +254 +222 175021 022 015 000 03
185030 1548N 06430W 9773 00297 0108 +249 +227 180023 024 019 001 00
185100 1550N 06430W 9774 00297 0109 +249 +228 184023 024 019 001 00
185130 1551N 06430W 9774 00297 0108 +250 +222 182022 023 021 002 00
185200 1553N 06430W 9773 00298 0108 +252 +217 185023 023 020 001 03
185230 1555N 06430W 9774 00296 0108 +254 +219 186024 024 021 000 00
185300 1556N 06430W 9774 00297 0108 +248 +223 181024 025 020 000 00
185330 1558N 06430W 9774 00296 0108 +247 +219 180024 025 018 001 03
185400 1600N 06430W 9773 00297 0109 +245 +217 179025 025 022 001 03
185430 1602N 06430W 9773 00298 0110 +245 +214 176025 025 019 002 03
185500 1603N 06430W 9774 00296 0110 +246 +209 172024 025 019 001 03
185530 1605N 06430W 9774 00297 0110 +242 +213 171023 024 019 002 03
185600 1607N 06430W 9774 00299 0111 +237 +221 157020 023 021 002 03
185630 1609N 06430W 9775 00298 0111 +238 +229 154021 022 021 001 03
185700 1610N 06430W 9774 00299 0112 +232 +231 158023 025 022 002 05
185730 1612N 06430W 9773 00298 0111 +230 //// 166028 029 024 001 05
185800 1614N 06430W 9772 00299 0111 +241 +227 170026 029 022 003 03
185830 1615N 06430W 9773 00299 0110 +249 +215 171024 025 020 003 03
$$
;

Look at this post: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603

Know the error codes! I printed this out for reference when looking at recon data. Those are flight level winds.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Just so everyone remembers, we do have mark up maps for S2K!

Link to the maps here:
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113481

Alright I'll give it a try



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Aric Dunn]

odd recon finding lighter winds up in the deep convection.. the wind profile not looking to good. but a circ could be trying to get going closer to the mid level circ..

[Jimsot]

97L and that Tropical Wave is putting the 'squeeze' on us!

[tolakram]

Well, I got the reading wrong as well. Error was for SMFR winds, but the value posted was for 10 second gust, so

170026 029 022 003 03

mean flight level of 26
gusts to 29
SFMR of 22
precip rate of 003
error code 03, SFMR suspect

[NDG]

18z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013090418, , BEST, 0, 162N, 659W, 30, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Thats quite a bit to the sw of the mid lvl circ on radar.

I am starting to see the low level circulation and the MLC getting closer and closer by the hour, IMO.

[NDG]

Recon finding stronger winds now under the convection but under heavy rain rates.

[TJRE]

OPC 96hr Outlook


FISH HEADS!!!

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

[Riptide]

Just so everyone remembers, we do have mark up maps for S2K!

Link to the maps here:
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113481

Alright I'll give it a try



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Are you still feeling the "East Coast" Vibes?

[sunnyday]

Is anyone going to be interested if this is another recurve?

[Aric Dunn]

18z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013090418, , BEST, 0, 162N, 659W, 30, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Thats quite a bit to the sw of the mid lvl circ on radar.

I am starting to see the low level circulation and the MLC getting closer and closer by the hour, IMO.

yeah its a distinct possibility.. recon and doppler velocity starting to show what might be a more defined circ up around the MLC. we will find out.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 97L. Future Tropical Depression Seven or Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

[stauglocal]

Is anyone going to be interested if this is another recurve?

I will be. Maybe we will finally get some real surf here in Florida.