ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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Bluefrog
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#861 Postby Bluefrog » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:34 pm

fsusurfer wrote:Wife and I are supposed to drive over to Biloxi tomorrow evening from Destin and then drive home Saturday morning. We haven't made up our mind if we are going to go or not... does anyone have any idea if/when they would close the mobile bay bridge?


don't think you will be doing that
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#862 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:34 pm

fsusurfer wrote:Wife and I are supposed to drive over to Biloxi tomorrow evening from Destin and then drive home Saturday morning. We haven't made up our mind if we are going to go or not... does anyone have any idea if/when they would close the mobile bay bridge?



I believe they close it when winds get above a certain amount. Maybe 40 mph? maybe 45? Not completely sure...but somewhere around there...same here with the Pensacola bay bridge.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#863 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:39 pm

I can't imagine it'll be much above 45 mph....if that.
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#864 Postby lester » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:42 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 032037
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122013
A. 03/20:19:10Z
B. 23 deg 16 min N
088 deg 28 min W
C. NA
D. 55 kt
E. 077 deg 22 nm
F. 117 deg 68 kt
G. 066 deg 35 nm
H. EXTRAP 998 mb
I. 20 C / 463 m
J. 24 C / 457 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0312A KAREN OB 07
MAX FL WIND 68 KT 066/35 20:05:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
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#865 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:44 pm

Convection starting to fire on the western edge of the LLC.
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yzerfan
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#866 Postby yzerfan » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:48 pm

Wind speed closures normally hit the Florida Panhandle bridges at 45mph with the exception of the US 331 bridge over Choctawhatchee Bay in Walton County, which closes at something like 35-40mph winds because there are concerns with water getting blown over the low sections of the causeway.
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Lane
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#867 Postby Lane » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:48 pm

4:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 3
Location: 23.3°N 88.5°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
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#868 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:50 pm

Lets see the updated track.
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#869 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:50 pm

Im not surprised they kept it 65
....

not likely getting those at the surface.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#870 Postby stormhunter7 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:50 pm

CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS!

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
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#871 Postby Lane » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:52 pm

The NHC track has shifted west
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#872 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:54 pm

Nola is now definitely in the cone.
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#873 Postby robbielyn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:56 pm

Well that explains Louisiana's state of emergency. They did know something the rest of us didn't know.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#874 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:57 pm

Previous track: Image

Current track:[url]Image[/url]
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#875 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:59 pm

All of those guys in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida have to be in constant contact with NHC and NWS, so they have a bit of a "heads up" as far as advisories and tracks go.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#876 Postby Frank P » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:02 pm

Well depending on the angle of the turn to the NE as it approaches the coast, it could actually make landfall in Mississippi... a bobble here or there could do that... looks more likely at the MS/AL line to me however... my humble opinion....
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#877 Postby bella_may » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:05 pm

Not the side of the storm I thought I would be in. Yikes
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Re:

#878 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:05 pm

Lane wrote:The NHC track has shifted west



makes sense when you have 5 models showing LA and only the GFS and HWRF into FL....
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Re:

#879 Postby Shawee » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:06 pm

Janie2006 wrote:All of those guys in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida have to be in constant contact with NHC and NWS, so they have a bit of a "heads up" as far as advisories and tracks go.


Our eyes are wide open Janie. At the end of the day, while we all enjoy and appreciate the opinions of the experts and knowledgeable salty vets on these boards, the NHC and NWS are THE authorities!
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#880 Postby rockyman » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:07 pm

It is notable that the eastern end of the Hurricane Watch was whittled back and replaced with a Tropical Storm Watch.
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