ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

Surely they will issue PTC advisories by tomorrow morning. I mean that would be what...72 hrs from landfall. Perhaps that is what they are planning, and they are mainly watching to see where the center may form, so as to get the advisory location correct. Not sure they want to issue an advisory from tx/mx border all the way up through LA border or maybe even farther north than that. As of right now, landfall could be anywhere along that stretch. Guess we shall see by tomorrow.

We've seen advisories stretch that far plenty of times though. This doesn't make any sense at all, not even worth a mention?

[floridasun78]

their good rain band from ex HARVEY south of keywest i bet their good lighting show can seen from keywest http://www.nbcmiami.com/weather/?zipCode=33166

[Sanibel]

Some times a TUTT is a TUTT...


Thing can change fast in the GOM...Keep watching...

[SoupBone]

Some times a TUTT is a TUTT...


Thing can change fast in the GOM...Keep watching...

Are you suggesting

[wxman57]

If overnight runs come in continuing to show a U.S. impact no later than Friday there is no reason for there not to be any Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories issued on Harvey by late tomorrow morning.

Their guidelines state any impact to land within 48hrs, not final landfall. Now, the impact on the Yucatan won't be from a TS. Even though it's a high development chance within 48hrs, the development will occur between 36-48 hrs out, once it's past the Yucatan. Therefore, they may be reasoning that the Yucatan doesn't count in this case. First landfall by a TS or more won't come until Friday.

[Tireman4]

So your thinking is the same...Mexico to Louisiana?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2017082200, , BEST, 0, 182N, 870W, 25, 1008, WV

[Rgv20]

NWS Afternoon Discussion out of Brownsville

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Main question in the long-
term is obviously what ultimately becomes of Harvey`s remnants,
which currently appear fairly disorganized over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. By early Wednesday, the remnant circulation should
have re-emerged into the Bay of Campeche, where conditions are
expected to be favorable for strengthening. Some uncertainty still
exists, of course, but warm SST`s of 85-86F over much of the
western Gulf are in place. Vertical wind shear is expected to be
favorable for development (i. e., low), though that depends on how
far west the upper gyre now over the central Gulf moves as well
as how much as it fills between now and then.

On Wednesday, GFS and ECMWF show an H25 trough axis along the
Texas Coast with H5 weakness over the western Gulf. Sensible
weather shouldn`t be greatly different from Tuesday, though
moisture may penetrate a bit further inland with the sea-breeze
vs. today and Tuesday. For most of the long-term, blended
inherited max/min temps with latest Superblend, which for
Wednesday again yields highs pretty close to normal.

Meanwhile, the re-energized circulation of Harvey moves slowly
toward the northwest, in the direction of Deep South Texas, on
Wednesday, per both the GFS/ECMWF and various other track
guidance. Strengthening is indicated through Thursday along with
somewhat of an increase in forward speed toward the area. For what
it`s worth, intensity guidance generally keeps the disturbance at
tropical storm-level, but this guidance is suspect until it
actually emerges into the Bay of Campeche. 12Z GFS brings the
center of circulation ashore just south of Brownsville around 06Z
Thursday, then basically up the Rio Grande Valley fairly quickly
through the remainder of the day on Friday. 12Z ECMWF a bit slower
and takes the track more northward across the eastern portion of
the CWA.

Shouldn`t focus too much exact details yet, but confidence is
increasing for some kind of impacts to the RGV/Deep S. TX later
this week. Main impact at this juncture appears to be rain, even
if only modest strengthening of the tropical system is realized.
This would be primarily from Thursday night through Friday. Model
QPF amounts of 2-3" in 6 hours are showing up, though amounts will
depend on "linger" time over the RGV. Raised PoP`s from those
inherited but capped off at 60-70% in the peak timeframe. Too soon
to get into specifics of wind, storm surge, etc.

Direct impact of the tropical system seems to be over by
Saturday. Moisture levels remain pretty decent, though, so have
kept chance PoP`s in play through the remainder of the period.
High temps Thursday and Friday likely to remain stuck in the low
to perhaps mid-90s with the increased cloud cover and rain. Into
the weekend, trended temps slowly upward.

Now is an ideal time to review preparedness plans and restock
emergency kits. Stay tuned!

[ROCK]

00z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2017082200, , BEST, 0, 182N, 870W, 25, 1008, WV

http://i.imgur.com/i2bci15.png

Wouldn't have thought NW of that with current cloud structure..hmmm

[TexWx]

Wouldn't have thought NW of that with current cloud structure..hmmm

I agree totally.

[srainhoutx]

Monday evening briefing from Jeff:

Tropical storm or hurricane threat to the TX coast late this week

The strong tropical wave formerly known as Harvey have continued to show increased signs of organization today, but there is no evidence of a defined low level circulation and convection has been decreasing this evening. Surface observations suggest that a broad circulation is found generally ESE of where the deep convection has been found today moving generally toward the WNW or in the direction of the southern Yucatan.

Expect the tropical wave axis to reach the eastern coast of the Yucatan on Tuesday and then emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday. The well defined upper level low pressure system over the central Gulf of Mexico continues to move westward and will reach the NW Gulf late Tuesday into Wednesday and begin to weaken into a large weakness or shear axis. In other words this feature will break down the remaining ridging over TX and the NW Gulf allowing a trough across the central US by late week to push a frontal boundary deep into the state. This weakness in the ridge appears enough now to turn “Harvey” NW over the Gulf of Mexico with landfall potential from near Tampico, MX to Matagorda Bay, TX. The GFS has become the northern outlier today with a track toward Port Aransas while the CMC is the southern outlier with a track toward Tampico, MX and the ECMWF showing a landfall between BRO and CRP. At this point it is not overly important to focus on individual operational model runs, but instead the trends and the model ensembles. The trends today have been a general more northward track from an early morning consensus in NE MX to a late afternoon consensus over S TX. The CMC, GFS, and ECWMF ensembles are generally aimed at NE MX/S TX.

Much will depend on where a “new” center forms once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday. Should the surface center form northward along the wave axis a track toward the middle or upper TX coast would be possible, while a center formation toward the northern Bay of Campeche would likely result in a track toward NE MX/ S TX. It is impossible to determine at this time where any center may form which leads to a low amount of confidence.

One aspect noted in the model trends today is that even with a NE MX landfall the remains of the system get brought northward into SC TX this weekend and collide with the stalled frontal slop over the region. Both the GFS and ECMWF show the outbreak of a fairly significant rainfall event as the remains linger over coastal TX for 3-4 days post landfall and interact with the stalled frontal boundary. This trend can be noted in the “EPS” tracks below showing varying directions and looping motions over TX later in the forecast period indicating a system that is trapped in weak steering flow aloft.

Conditions appear generally favorable for intensification over the Gulf of Mexico with most models showing the formation of a 200mb high pressure cell over the system by the middle of the week helping to vent the surface center and preventing any sort of wind shear. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support intensification. The only drawback to intensification will be the 48-60 hours over the Gulf waters, but if conditions are ripe we have certainly seen storms in the past increase 40-60mph in that amount of time. For now will cap the intensity near a strong tropical storm, but a hurricane is certainly possible especially if the system develops quickly after leaving the Yucatan.

Note: NHC has tasked a high altitude mission tomorrow evening across the Gulf of Mexico to sample upper air steering patterns and have 3 USAF missions planned for Wednesday

Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches and warnings may be required for portions of the MX/TX coast as early as Wednesday.

Impacts:

For now will only raise rain chances starting Thursday and hold them high into the weekend and likely will need to closely monitor trends in amounts over the next few days. Will likely have to start pushing up tides starting Thursday, but not sure how high they may go at this point. Seas will almost certainly need to be raised from the flat-2ft currently over the coastal waters. Likely will see 6 ft by Thursday and could likely double that for Friday and Saturday for portions of the TX waters especially south of Matagorda Bay.

Residents along the TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to enact those plans this week

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

So your thinking is the same...Mexico to Louisiana?

I'm thinking that Harvey is going to be real trouble for Texas. Main reason is that we have tickets to the Astros Thursday. Sitting behind home plate and Keuchel is pitching. That locks up a Texas landfall...

[Steve]

I agree also. It's hard to say with the last visibles. It could be where Best Track has it or slightly North of there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/vis-animated.gif

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

So your thinking is the same...Mexico to Louisiana?

I'm thinking that Harvey is going to be real trouble for Texas. Main reason is that we have tickets to the Astros Thursday. Sitting behind home plate and Keuchel is pitching. That locks up a Texas landfall...

Keuchel is really pitching lights out now. You are basing your forecasts on Astros games now sir? Makes sense to me.

[Craters]

:uarrow:

So your thinking is the same...Mexico to Louisiana?

I'm thinking that Harvey is going to be real trouble for Texas. Main reason is that we have tickets to the Astros Thursday. Sitting behind home plate and Keuchel is pitching. That locks up a Texas landfall...

Oh, no. Not the Astros tickets phenomenon.

Well, that cinches it, right there...

[W8NC4TX]

:uarrow:

So your thinking is the same...Mexico to Louisiana?

I'm thinking that Harvey is going to be real trouble for Texas. Main reason is that we have tickets to the Astros Thursday. Sitting behind home plate and Keuchel is pitching. That locks up a Texas landfall...

So, according to my 57 secret decoder ring, I'm hearing:
Real trouble...Houston landfall...Thursday. Got it, thanks!

[GalvestonWXGeek]

:uarrow:

So your thinking is the same...Mexico to Louisiana?

I'm thinking that Harvey is going to be real trouble for Texas. Main reason is that we have tickets to the Astros Thursday. Sitting behind home plate and Keuchel is pitching. That locks up a Texas landfall...

My thoughts: If the main reason for Harvey being real trouble for Texas is the fact that you have home plate tickets to the Astros game, then I propose that I will take those tickets off your hands and thereby save Texas from any tropical weather troubles.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

So your thinking is the same...Mexico to Louisiana?

I'm thinking that Harvey is going to be real trouble for Texas. Main reason is that we have tickets to the Astros Thursday. Sitting behind home plate and Keuchel is pitching. That locks up a Texas landfall...

So, according to my 57 secret decoder ring, I'm hearing:
Real trouble...Houston landfall...Thursday. Got it, thanks!

When he nailed the Ike landing, he picked up some dirt on the Island...threw up in the air.. a week before...said Galveston and that was that.

[wxman57]

I'm thinking that Harvey is going to be real trouble for Texas. Main reason is that we have tickets to the Astros Thursday. Sitting behind home plate and Keuchel is pitching. That locks up a Texas landfall...

My thoughts: If the main reason for Harvey being real trouble for Texas is the fact that you have home plate tickets to the Astros game, then I propose that I will take those tickets off your hands and thereby save Texas from any tropical weather troubles.

It doesn't work like that. If I sold or gave away the tickets, then the storm would not be any threat then I'd NEED the tickets.

I am a bit concerned about how far north the convection is forming. Models and ensembles indicate a greater risk of a landfall close to, or even north of Brownsville on Friday morning. Would mean lots of rain all along the TX coast, through Houston Fri/Sat.

[SoupBone]

I'm thinking that Harvey is going to be real trouble for Texas. Main reason is that we have tickets to the Astros Thursday. Sitting behind home plate and Keuchel is pitching. That locks up a Texas landfall...

So, according to my 57 secret decoder ring, I'm hearing:
Real trouble...Houston landfall...Thursday. Got it, thanks!

When he nailed the Ike landing, he picked up some dirt on the Island...threw up in the air.. a week before...said Galveston and that was that.

Since it's fairly quiet on the board, i don't mind posting this. Wxman is one of the BIGGEST people I disagree with on this forum. Every single Winter, he wishcasts the cold away from the Gulf Coast, and projects a warm core Winter throughout the same area.