Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Ralph's Weather
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#861 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Dec 11, 2022 11:48 pm

SHV is at least mentioning that some models are showing winter precip this weekend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#862 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 11, 2022 11:51 pm

GFS really dumping the cold right before Christmas again... It has highs in the teens here on the 23rd with single digit highs in Kansas :cold: :froze:

End of the CMC showing it too
Last edited by Brent on Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#863 Postby SnowintheFalls » Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:04 am

Brent wrote:GFS really dumping the cold right before Christmas again... It has highs in the teens here on the 23rd with single digit highs in Kansas :cold: :froze:


A white Christmas would be amazing but a frigid Christmas will suffice. Christmas without a fire in the fireplace just doesn't feel the same!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#864 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:15 am

Brent wrote:GFS really dumping the cold right before Christmas again... It has highs in the teens here on the 23rd with single digit highs in Kansas :cold: :froze:

End of the CMC showing it too


I would expect the operationals to trend even colder. Don’t think they realize the true potential of this yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#865 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:20 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:GFS really dumping the cold right before Christmas again... It has highs in the teens here on the 23rd with single digit highs in Kansas :cold: :froze:

End of the CMC showing it too


I would expect the operationals to trend even colder. Don’t think they realize the true potential of this yet.


We had single digit highs here in 1983 1989 and 2021 so that's sort of my baseline I'm watching if we really are gonna reach the full potential

The end of the CMC looks like a blue norther almost

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#866 Postby Ghost0321 » Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:27 am

70s begone!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#867 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:31 am

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:GFS really dumping the cold right before Christmas again... It has highs in the teens here on the 23rd with single digit highs in Kansas :cold: :froze:

End of the CMC showing it too


I would expect the operationals to trend even colder. Don’t think they realize the true potential of this yet.


We had single digit highs here in 1983 1989 and 2021 so that's sort of my baseline I'm watching if we really are gonna reach the full potential

The end of the CMC looks like a blue norther almost

https://i.ibb.co/cr0DyZp/gem-T2m-scus-41-1.png


I’m not sure about 83 or 89 here but in Feb 21 we had highs in the upper teens to low 20’s here which is really impressive for this far south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#868 Postby TropicalTundra » Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:48 am

Some models are hinting of some form of storm next weekend. Only a matter of time before NAM arrives
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#869 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:06 am

End of the Euro also extremely cold... Highs around 20 here(near freezing in DFW). It's dry but faster than the GFS with it
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#870 Postby Cerlin » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:08 am

Models seem to be overall a little drier but a lot better at recognizing the cold over the last day or so
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#871 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 12, 2022 5:18 am

The 6z GFS is delayed.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#872 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Dec 12, 2022 6:17 am

SHV has introduced slight chance for rain or snow this weekend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#873 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 12, 2022 6:26 am

1069 mb HP within a week on the 6z GFS in NW Canada!? :double:
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#874 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 12, 2022 6:43 am

1070 mb again in NW Canada closer to Christmas? What is this madness!?
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#875 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 12, 2022 6:51 am

Stupid SW Ridge wasted the Christmas Cold Shot on the 6z GFS! :spam:
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#876 Postby WinterMax » Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:07 am

Looks like 57 may not be far off at all for Houston on Christmas. I don’t post much but I read, and he is right quite often.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#877 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:38 am

06z GEFS is brutally cold on Christmas but it has the main shot of the cold headed more east of us rather than straight down south but it’s still really cold here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#878 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:43 am

Iceresistance wrote:Stupid SW Ridge wasted the Christmas Cold Shot on the 6z GFS! :spam:


No worries Ice, the ensemble looks good. Just hope the PNA doesn’t go too positive.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#879 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:44 am

WinterMax wrote:Looks like 57 may not be far off at all for Houston on Christmas. I don’t post much but I read, and he is right quite often.

70+ is highly unlikely even in SE TX. The cold will bleed south under it's own weight even if upper flow is out of SW. Global models struggle with surface temps always.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#880 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:45 am

06z GEFS is still cold for Christmas
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