ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

:eek:
https://imgur.com/xSXTyoJ

Looks like Fiona's core might've barely missed/made lanfall on PR. It's very very close. Either way it seems like an optimal scenario for Fiona to maintain its strong core. And at the same time the worst-case scenario for PR since it's constantly impacted by Fiona's powerful eastern half.

Yeah looks like it may have landfalled based on radar.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1021141317025288292/IMG_3067.png

I agree! That looks like a landfall. A number of town points show up on the eye.

[Mob1]

I think the entire eye has to pass over to be considered an official landfall

[Iceresistance]

Just in time as Fiona enters Mona’s passage.

So no official landfall in Puerto Rico?

Not yet, maybe it could be mentioned in the Post-Season Analysis.

Yes, it's official.

...FIONA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...

NWS Doppler radar observations indicate that the center of
Hurricane Fiona has made landfall along the extreme southwestern
coast of Puerto Rico near Punta Tocon at 320 PM AST...1920 UTC.
Maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 85 mph
(140 km/h).

[Ivanhater]

I think the entire eye has to pass over to be considered an official landfall

Just the center of the eye

[skyline385]

I think the entire eye has to pass over to be considered an official landfall

NHC called it a landfall

...FIONA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...

[skyline385]

Eye seems to be shrinking, looking way too good for a Cat 1 on radar

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220918/5dfac97e49e167fcf1546d4e2d16deeb.jpg

The small eye from radar beginning to clear on IR

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fiona's core is rapidly improving on both IR and radar.

[MarioProtVI]

And it’s already back over water. Literally threading the needle. This is gonna be the first major probably much earlier then NHC expects it to given latest developments since its core won’t be disrupted at all.

[kevin]

Looks like land interaction so far has actually helped Fiona to tighten its eye.

[Iceresistance]

ADT is mixed, slightly lower wind measurement and the pressure is too low.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2022 Time : 185020 UTC
Lat : 17:33:01 N Lon : 66:52:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 979mb / 72kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.0

Center Temp : -68.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

[skyline385]

ADT is mixed, slightly lower wind measurement and the pressure is too low.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2022 Time : 185020 UTC
Lat : 17:33:01 N Lon : 66:52:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 979mb / 72kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.0

Center Temp : -68.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Looks like it missed the center

[aspen]

Depending on how much this W jog keeps up, Fiona might make landfall in the DR. Both the HWRF and HMON show this jog; the HWRF misses land, the HMON makes landfall.

[skyline385]

Depending on how much this W jog keeps up, Fiona might make landfall in the DR. Both the HWRF and HMON show this jog; the HWRF misses land, the HMON makes landfall.

Going to go with the HWRF solution since it got the landfall on the SW edge of the island spot on. HMON had it jogging W earlier and missed landfall on PR.

[galaxy401]

Hurricanes seem to have a mind of their own when they skirt landfall. The eye always tries to avoid as much land as possible.

[Iceresistance]

3 Hours before

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1571569253819596801




Bermuda needs to prepare if this storm is going to recurve towards them.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1571594913757659138

[InfernoFlameCat]

I remember tropical storm Fred. That one was determined to hit every and everything that existed in the carribean. Irma also hit a lot of stuff. But Irma never really smacked anything significant until Cuba. Fred literally killed itself over islands.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1571600748735254529

[Iceresistance]

I remember tropical storm Fred. That one was determined to hit every and everything that existed in the carribean. Irma also hit a lot of stuff. But Irma never really smacked anything significant until Cuba. Fred literally killed itself over islands.

What about the Northern Leeward Islands? The Virgin Islands? And the Turks and Caicos?

[Iceresistance]

Videos are starting to come in on Fiona in Puerto Rico.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/nbwFhK7d70s[/youtube]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/qW5ON47CLLo[/youtube]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/MK2GHFXpduA[/youtube]

[tolakram]

saved loop, missing frames