ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

NICOLE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE HEADED FOR THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 74.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

[Poonwalker]

The structure is impressive. It will probably ramp convection back up overnight as Dmax approaches. Some of the very dry air is now mixing out to its SE quadrant. It’s also just entering the zone of 28 C water temps and will remain there until just prior to landfall. I would not let my guard down on the east coast.

[gatorcane]

Convection near CoC on the increase, could be the start of an intensification trend.

[wxman57]

Nicole is reverting back to a sub-tropical system

That's a good point. It certainly became tropical today, but convection this evening is very weak. Couple of points. Nicole's structure means that the central pressure will be rather low but the winds may not be that strong. This is because of the large size of its wind field. Wind speed is determined by pressure gradient, the change in pressure over a distance. Increase that distance for a large storm and the wind is lower. Second point, flight level winds may be high, particularly northwest of the center. However, standard FL-SFC wind reduction will not apply here. That's only valid in an eyewall in strong convection. Storms like this may have a lot stronger winds aloft than at the surface. Dry air continues to flow south across Florida...

[wxman57]

No change in track at 10pm. Still Ft. Pierce.

Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving
west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt The track forecast
philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory
package. Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the
south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24
hours. Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then
northward along the western side of the high. In 3-5 days, Nicole
is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United
States, to the east of a large mid-level trough. The track model
guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official
forecast. This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for
the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance
thereafter.

I see a change. NHC now indicates it will weaken to a depression in Georgia and go extratropical in Virginia. Faster weakening inland. Ok, time for bed.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Couple flashes of lightning seen to my east

[Blown Away]

Convection near CoC on the increase, could be the start of an intensification trend.

Showing up on the IR…

[NDG]

[rigbyrigz]

although HWRF still showing emergence into GOM near Tampa and time in the Gulf to meander NNW, the other models have tightened this up. seems this could be the reason BigBend may not get Wx over 50 and the TS path symbol for Ga. and Sc. has been changed to D in last NHC update...



...will be interesting to see if future HWRFs similarly "pull it in" to confirm this weaker life ahead for Nicole after Central Florida visit (hope so)

[robbielyn]

Nicole is reverting back to a sub-tropical system

That's a good point. It certainly became tropical today, but convection this evening is very weak. Couple of points. Nicole's structure means that the central pressure will be rather low but the winds may not be that strong. This is because of the large size of its wind field. Wind speed is determined by pressure gradient, the change in pressure over a distance. Increase that distance for a large storm and the wind is lower. Second point, flight level winds may be high, particularly northwest of the center. However, standard FL-SFC wind reduction will not apply here. That's only valid in an eyewall in strong convection. Storms like this may have a lot stronger winds aloft than at the surface. Dry air continues to flow south across Florida...

Yes tonight outside it felt rather cool and dry and i thought to myself, this doesn’t feel the least bit tropical. west central fl coast.

[NDG]

Nicole starting to track over higher OHC, convection should continue to intensify during the night.

[CryHavoc]

I understand why everyone is focusing on central pressure and wind speed, but flooding is such a huge threat with this storm. I hope no one is sleeping on it even if it's a min cat 1 at lf.

[eastcoastFL]

No change in track at 10pm. Still Ft. Pierce.

Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving
west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt The track forecast
philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory
package. Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the
south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24
hours. Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then
northward along the western side of the high. In 3-5 days, Nicole
is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United
States, to the east of a large mid-level trough. The track model
guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official
forecast. This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for
the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance
thereafter.

I see a change. NHC now indicates it will weaken to a depression in Georgia and go extratropical in Virginia. Faster weakening inland. Ok, time for bed.

No change in track…not intensity.

[NFLnut]

I understand why everyone is focusing on central pressure and wind speed, but flooding is such a huge threat with this storm. I hope no one is sleeping on it even if it's a min cat 1 at lf.

Especially since central and west Florida are saturated and a lot is still flooded from Ian. There have been some incredible deluges already this afternoon and those weren't even officially rain bands from Nicole yet. My B-I-L just 25 miles to my east (~20 miles from the east coast) is still flooded at his lake home -- still knee deep. IN the house. He really doesn't need this now.

[Jr0d]

The CMC, and GFS yesterday predicted the lack of high clouds yesterday on their IR simulation.

Unfortunately they also showed(and still do obviously) Nichole strengthening significantly up to landfall with the IR simulation looking more like a classical hurricane as Wednesday progresses.

So far Nichole has over performed and I expect this trend to continue. I fully expect this to be a cat 2 by Wednesday night.

My parents are on the dirty side in Cocoa Beach. Their house is safe and surge is a non issue for them. Unfortunately I feel many others will be caught off guard as Nichole will be much stronger than most expect.

I am still a bit in shock that NASA decided to Leave SLS/Artemis on the pad for the storm. We have many nervous NASA engineers and rocket scientists who want this to hurry up and be done with, hopefully with minimal if any damage to the rocket. My gut feeling is not good about it.

[cycloneye]

4 AM EST track.

[Steve H.]

Thanks for posting the track

[NDG]

[Steve H.]

Okay, big hot tower flare up over Nicole as of 5am. Let’s see what happens

[Blown Away]

Okay, big hot tower flare up over Nicole as of 5am. Let’s see what happens