ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Javlin]

What the hell
?⁹⁷⁶⁴
https://imageshack.com/i/pmU0CmGfp

[Steve]

So, it seems like the unexpected strengthening is correlating with the undisclosed factor I mentioned earlier.
This likely due to the impact of a solar stream and subsequent heating of the ionosphere.
Note the sudden jump in density.
https://solarham.com/solarwind.htm

Ionospheric heating is seen here
https://solarham.com/globald.htm

I dont even know what that means or how it correlates but yeah. That’s a big ass jump. Just got some yellow type squalls come through. Which were moderately heavy. Crazies are out some drunk dude was dancing in his shorts at a traffic light. People running red lights everywhere haha.

[texsn95]

My vehicle is parked over on Tower road in Houma, right next to Bayou Petit Gaillou, does anyone know if it floods over there?

Also, never forget.

[tolakram]

So, it seems like the unexpected strengthening is correlating with the undisclosed factor I mentioned earlier.
This likely due to the impact of a solar stream and subsequent heating of the ionosphere.
Note the sudden jump in density.
https://solarham.com/solarwind.htm

Ionospheric heating is seen here
https://solarham.com/globald.htm

I dont even know what that means or how it correlates but yeah. That’s a big ass jump. Just got some yellow type squalls coke through. Which were moderately heavy. Crazies are out some drink dude was dancing in his shorts at a traffic light. People running red lights everywhere haha.

It's a minor storm. I think the correlation is interesting but right now it's just that. I think the super warm gulf waters allowing a storm to intensify in the face of shear is more plausible. My opinion.

[Cunxi Huang]

My vehicle is parked over on Tower road in Houma, right next to Bayou Petit Gaillou, does anyone know if it floods over there?

Also, never forget.

Hey, are you near the airport? It might flood, elevation is only about 7 ft there

[MississippiWx]

Eye beginning to make an appearance on visible.

[Javlin]

It's a minor storm. I think the correlation is interesting but right now it's just that. I think the super warm gulf waters allowing a storm to intensify in the face of shear is more plausible. My opinion.

You may not remember but at the tail end of 2005 season we had a fella on the board doing his space weather stuff and he predicted the last storm of the season 3 weeks in advance!Many on the board scoffed me included but he had it down to the day after that I said hmmnnn....don't know

[TomballEd]

The steady state or slow weakening might be because S of the strongest shear it is still in a favorable upward motion area on the right side of a jet entrance. Eventually, shear wins out over any baroclinic effects.

[tolakram]

saved loop. Eye clearing, or dry air starting to mix into the core?

[mpic]

Reed Timmer just went live on YouTube if anyone is interested.

[texsn95]

My vehicle is parked over on Tower road in Houma, right next to Bayou Petit Gaillou, does anyone know if it floods over there?

Also, never forget.

Hey, are you near the airport? It might flood, elevation is only about 7 ft there

Unfortunately, out at Mississippi Canyon now, but it's an Explorer so a bit higher than a car at least.

[GCANE]

It's a minor storm. I think the correlation is interesting but right now it's just that. I think the super warm gulf waters allowing a storm to intensify in the face of shear is more plausible. My opinion.

You may not remember but at the tail end of 2005 season we had a fella on the board doing his space weather stuff and he predicted the last storm of the season 3 weeks in advance!Many on the board scoffed me included but he had it down to the day after that I said hmmnnn....don't know

I knew this would be debatable, that is why I waited until there would be some tangible evidence.
The idea is the solar stream heats the ionosphere which raises the atmosphere underneath it.
This causes a TC to stretch vertically causing it to spin faster due to conservation of angular momentum.

[Blinhart]

It's a minor storm. I think the correlation is interesting but right now it's just that. I think the super warm gulf waters allowing a storm to intensify in the face of shear is more plausible. My opinion.

You may not remember but at the tail end of 2005 season we had a fella on the board doing his space weather stuff and he predicted the last storm of the season 3 weeks in advance!Many on the board scoffed me included but he had it down to the day after that I said hmmnnn....don't know

I knew this would be debatable, that is why I waited until there would be some tangible evidence.
The idea is the solar stream heats the ionosphere which raises the atmosphere underneath it.
This causes a TC to stretch vertically causing it to spin faster due to conservation of angular momentum.

I've always thought this.

[MGC]

Lite rain here on MS Coast. Was just down by the beach and a few white caps on the sound. Wind has picked up a bit since this morning.

Looks like dry air is being ingested into the south and eastern side of Francine. Solid eyewall on west side, little on the east side.....MGC

[Janie2006]

If she’s got any go-go juice left now is the time to burn it up.

Francine is running out of real estate.

Light rain on the Alabama coast, but it’s early yet.

[tolakram]

It's a minor storm. I think the correlation is interesting but right now it's just that. I think the super warm gulf waters allowing a storm to intensify in the face of shear is more plausible. My opinion.

You may not remember but at the tail end of 2005 season we had a fella on the board doing his space weather stuff and he predicted the last storm of the season 3 weeks in advance!Many on the board scoffed me included but he had it down to the day after that I said hmmnnn....don't know

I knew this would be debatable, that is why I waited until there would be some tangible evidence.
The idea is the solar stream heats the ionosphere which raises the atmosphere underneath it.
This causes a TC to stretch vertically causing it to spin faster due to conservation of angular momentum.

Sounds measurable.

[Nimbus]

What the hell
?⁹⁷⁶⁴
https://imageshack.com/i/pmU0CmGfp

Salome is in the house!
Is that 37 degrees or 38 degrees?

[SohCahToa]

On radar looks like the southern and eastern part of the eye wall is being filled in?

[EasyTiger]

I'm still thinking landfall closer to west side of Vermilion Bay. I think the consensus models are too far west due to the poor-performing HWRF, which takes it inland into Matagorda, and the HMON.

Nice work!

[MONTEGUT_LA]

My vehicle is parked over on Tower road in Houma, right next to Bayou Petit Gaillou, does anyone know if it floods over there?

Also, never forget.

You should be ok there. I cant recall a time it flooded there.