Tropical Storm Chris

[Ivanhater]

Ok, this is not looking good

[jasons2k]

This morning I honestly didn't see this coming. What a difference a few hours can make!

And for the first time since Sept. of last year, I'm a bit nervous.

I don't like what I've been seeing for next week.

[SouthFloridawx]

It is interesting looking at the last few data sets of hdob's. You notice that the winds are higher than when they made a pass nearby earlier today. I know the storm is moving into that general direction but, just a note it seems that the system is strengthening gradually.

[Trugunzn]

is the center in between those to red lines????

Looks like it is

[WindRunner]

An interesting thing I just noted after looking at my vortex plots . . . the two plots we have so far indicate a slightly north of NW motion, say about 325 degrees, not the NHC's 295 WNW on the 5:30. I'm not sure what this is a sign of, and it may just be a wobble. A third vortex in the next half-hour or so should make it easier to draw some conclusions from this.

[WindRunner]

An interesting thing I just noted after looking at my vortex plots . . . the two plots we have so far indicate a slightly north of NW motion, say about 325 degrees, not the NHC's 295 WNW on the 5:30. I'm not sure what this is a sign of, and it may just be a wobble. A third vortex in the next half-hour or so should make it easier to draw some conclusions from this.

[fci]

I have one word for you Wilma.

People thought Hurricane Wilma wasn't going to be much but look what happen. You have to always be ready for anything.

OK, I'm with Kevin on this one.
Any comparison to Wilma is simly way off.
Different region.
Different time of year
Different everything!!!

[El Nino]

I noticed that too, but I wasn't sure. Now that someone is talking about that, I have to say that it's quite strange.

Chris, 3d storm, allready a strange one with some surprises.

Happy 2006 season folks !

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012159
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 32 KNHC
2147. 1925N 06153W 00304 0045 074 031 240 232 031 00360 0000000000
2148 1925N 06155W 00305 0045 075 031 240 232 031 00361 0000000000
2148. 1925N 06157W 00305 0045 075 031 238 232 033 00361 0000000000
2149 1926N 06159W 00304 0046 075 031 238 230 032 00361 0000000000
2149. 1926N 06200W 00306 0047 075 029 238 232 031 00363 0000000000
2150 1926N 06202W 00304 0047 073 028 238 232 029 00361 0000000000
2150. 1926N 06204W 00305 0047 070 027 236 236 028 00363 0000000000
2151 1926N 06206W 00305 0047 071 029 236 232 029 00363 0000000000
2151. 1926N 06208W 00304 0048 070 029 240 226 029 00363 0000000000
2152 1926N 06210W 00305 0049 072 028 240 224 029 00364 0000000000
2152. 1927N 06212W 00305 0049 070 027 240 234 027 00364 0000000000
2153 1927N 06213W 00305 0049 069 027 240 232 027 00365 0000000000
2153. 1927N 06215W 00304 0049 069 026 240 232 026 00364 0000000000
2154 1927N 06217W 00305 0049 070 026 240 232 027 00365 0000000000
2154. 1927N 06219W 00305 0050 067 025 240 232 026 00365 0000000000
2155 1927N 06221W 00304 0051 065 025 240 232 025 00365 0000000000
2155. 1925N 06221W 00306 0050 065 024 240 230 025 00366 0000000000
2156 1924N 06219W 00305 0049 064 022 240 232 023 00365 0000000000
2156. 1923N 06218W 00309 0048 064 023 238 232 024 00368 0000000000
2157 1922N 06217W 00305 0049 065 021 238 236 022 00365 0000000000

[WindRunner]

[Dean4Storms]

Question?? If the NHC was posting the forecast path to the right of the models earlier today, what has made them shift more to the South at this point. Does this look like it may be the trend now and perhaps miss S Florida all together?? Thanks in advance.

A deeper stronger system would keep on a more westerly track due to its organization throughout the atmosphere as it runs into the Atlantic ridge. A weaker system would basically go up under it.

[mvtrucking]

Not the 'W' word already?

[wayoutfront]

Wow

Had to go to a funeral today

Last I saw was the LLC reorganize from west of the convection to directly under the convection early this AM.

It made a big difference

[Praxus]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Looks like a cane now.

<buckles up>

[Extremeweatherguy]

An interesting thing I just noted after looking at my vortex plots . . . the two plots we have so far indicate a slightly north of NW motion, say about 325 degrees, not the NHC's 295 WNW on the 5:30. I'm not sure what this is a sign of, and it may just be a wobble. A third vortex in the next half-hour or so should make it easier to draw some conclusions from this.

It may just be a brief wobble, but eventually (even if it went due north), it would feel the ridge and be pushed back west. Any northward motion is actually a negative, because it would keep the storm further away from the mountains, thus giving it a better chance to strengthen. I really hope this northward jog stops soon.

[curtadams]

is the center in between those to red lines????

No. The center is near the top of the upper red line. The hot air rising from the center is being blown SW and then SE as it rises. Thus the highest clouds (the reds) are in an arc extending away from the center.

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 012201
97779 21534 30194 62200 03000 07026 24232 /0017
40525
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 16

[StormsAhead]

URNT14 KNHC 012127
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01167 10618 10016 12424 27016
02168 20615 20015 22422 27016
03170 30613 30015 32422 27022
04172 40611 40014 42322 25033
05174 50610 50013 5//// 22041
06176 60610 60010 62424 26023
MF173 M0610 MF043
OBS 01 AT 20:11:30Z
OBS 06 AT 20:35:40Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 23010
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01181 10607 19776 12121 15047
02183 20605 20015 22221 15037
03184 30603 30016 32222 14036
04186 40601 40017 42320 13035
05188 50599 50017 52321 12032
06190 60598 60018 62321 12028
MF180 M0608 MF064
OBS 01 AT 20:46:00Z
OBS 06 AT 21:09:00Z
OBS 06 SFC WND 11020
AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 15

[Extremeweatherguy]

is the center in between those to red lines????

No. The center is near the top of the upper red line. The hot air rising from the center is being blown SW and then SE as it rises. Thus the highest clouds (the reds) are in an arc extending away from the center.

actually looking at the NHC advisory it looks like the center may be right under that upper red line.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012209
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 33 KNHC
2157. 1921N 06216W 00310 0049 063 021 236 234 022 00370 0000000000
2158 1920N 06214W 00305 0049 066 022 240 232 022 00365 0000000000
2158. 1919N 06213W 00304 0048 065 023 240 228 024 00363 0000000000
2159 1917N 06212W 00306 0048 060 023 238 228 023 00364 0000000000
2159. 1916N 06210W 00304 0047 065 023 238 226 025 00362 0000000000
2200 1915N 06209W 00304 0046 068 026 240 226 026 00361 0000000000
2200. 1914N 06208W 00306 0046 068 026 236 230 026 00363 0000000000
2201 1913N 06207W 00305 0046 066 025 236 232 026 00361 0000000000
2201. 1911N 06205W 00304 0045 063 025 236 234 025 00359 0000000000
2202 1910N 06205W 00306 0044 061 024 236 234 025 00360 0000000000
2202. 1908N 06204W 00305 0044 063 025 238 232 026 00359 0000000000
2203 1906N 06203W 00307 0044 063 025 234 234 026 00361 0000000000
2203. 1904N 06203W 00302 0042 062 026 232 232 028 00355 0000000000
2204 1903N 06201W 00306 0041 066 026 238 226 028 00357 0000000000
2204. 1902N 06200W 00304 0041 064 026 236 232 028 00355 0000000000
2205 1901N 06159W 00306 0040 069 026 230 230 027 00357 0000000000
2205. 1900N 06157W 00302 0039 074 026 230 224 027 00352 0000000000
2206 1858N 06156W 00307 0039 073 024 234 216 025 00357 0000000000
2206. 1857N 06155W 00304 0038 075 024 234 222 025 00353 0000000000
2207 1856N 06154W 00305 0037 072 025 234 224 027 00353 0000000000