TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[double D]

Interesting find Portastorm.

I do have to agree that today's operational GFS is not all that impressive as for as temperatures go next week, so it's nice to see that we still have some hope left. Now we need to throw in some moisture for good measure.

[jasons2k]

Yes, we are in that "window" where the GFS typically loses the cold air. Now the $64,000 question will be will it come back in the 1-3 day timeframe over the weekend?

[jasons2k]

Granted, this is probably taken from the surface features plot which is suspect, but here is the latest from NWS-HGX:

ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND PRESSURES FALLING OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.

Onshore flow = warm sector...if it is to be believed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Doesn't help Houston any, but Euro, seen on PSU e-Wall loop might have the justaposition of cold and moisture for a little light frozen action (probably snow, if anything) around DFW this upcoming Friday night.


Too bad you can't get Euro QPF forecasts or forecasts on less than a 24 hour interval on any free site I can think of.

Euro shows 850 mb temps below -20ºC for both GRB and NE football games.

[Portastorm]

Those NFL playoff games are going to be great to watch!

Meanwhile, the 0z GFS 500 mb flow next week still brings chilly air south down the Plains. But if we see that cutoff low develop out west like both the GFS and Euro suggest, the airmass will be quite shallow.

I know enough about next week's pattern to know that I don't know how to interpret the models beyond that!

[Portastorm]

I hope I'm not being guilty here of -removed- ... but looking at the new 12z GFS run, I have to think this model is just flat out clueless (for us in Texas) at 120 hrs.

Here's the 500 mb flow, showing a clear path for Arctic air to spill south into the Plains:

[img][/img]

Now, here is the 850 mb flow at 120 hrs, showing winds from the ... south? (would that mean a very shallow airmass?)

[img][/img]

And then, here is the surface look ... and check out how warm this looks for most of Texas ... which to me, doesn't make much sense:

[img][/img]

So is the GFS clueless or am I?

[jasons2k]

It's very typical for the GFS and most models to have a hard time with the cold air. They'll show it initially, then lose it for several days in the 3-8-day timeframe, only to bring it back at the last minute.

We will likely have W or SW flow aloft, which would mean the airmass would be very shallow. It also would create a setup for overrunning precip. This is the kind of setup that historically brings winter weather to Texas. A lot will depend on exactly how much arctic air can be tapped. The setup does not, however, look like a massive dome of bitter cold.

At this point I would look for a winter weather threat for the Panhandle/W TX and North Texas, maybe as far south as central Texas and the Hill Country. A few days ago my best guess was a threat generally north of an Austin to Tyler line, and for now that still seems reasonable...assuming this all pans out.

[Portastorm]

Your thoughts seem reasonable, Jason. I look at that pattern and, at least for my part of the state, it reminds me of past events here where we saw freezing drizzle. Ugh.

[double D]

If this is truly a shallow arctic airmass, then the GFS is probably to slow with the front, sometimes as much as 24 hours to slow as seen from last year.

I have to also agree with jasons, in that this seems like a perfect overunning event with southwest flow aloft, that could give us a chance of some wintery weather here in Texas. If this event dosen't pan out then I giving up hope for the rest of winter.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian model see a little light snow possible DFW area Friday afternoon/evening.


Note also it confirms Euro concept of -20ºC 850 mb temps, and look at the howling Northwest winds at Foxborough. (sp?)


Will a team from San Diego be able to handle wind chills below 0ºF?

[jasons2k]

Here is the latest from NWS HGX - no mention of any kind of arctic outbreak with this front next week:

FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SE TX DURING
THE DAY TUE AND TEMPS MAY FALL DURING THE DAY SHOULD CLOUD COVER
PERSIST AND DIURNAL HEATING IS MINIMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TUE INTO WED NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE FRONT ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FRONT IS RATHER SHALLOW.

[southerngale]

I'm not surprised, Jason. The real Arctic front is always over a week away, the next one, not this one. I'm just waiting to hear that the one after this one is the one that will send us into the next Ice Age.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like Waco could be getting some wintry action tomorrow night and Friday...

Thursday Night: A slight chance of freezing rain and sleet after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: A chance of rain and sleet, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. North northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=FWD&llon=-97.702083&rlon=-96.702083&tlat=32.057917&blat=31.057917&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=124&map.y=107

Places just NW of Austin may get in on the action too...

Thursday Night: A chance of rain possibly mixed with sleet after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Friday: A chance of rain possibly mixed with sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 50. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=EWX&llon=-98.272083&rlon=-97.274583&tlat=30.827917&blat=29.830417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=62&map.y=64

The same is also true for Hearne, TX (which is just slightly northwest of College Station)...

Thursday Night: A slight chance of rain and sleet after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: A chance of rain and sleet, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Hearne&state=TX&site=FWD&textField1=30.877&textField2=-96.5948&e=0

[southerngale]

Woohoo.... I'm so excited! MSN forecast says snow showers for Beaumont next week. I believe it, too!

Thursday
Jan 24 Snow Showers

Snow Showers
Hi: 30° Lo: 26°

Cloudy with snow showers. High 30F and low 26F.
Precip chance 55%

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?wealocations=wc:USTX0089

[CajunMama]

woohoo! I get sneaux too! (yeah, right!)

Thursday
Jan 24 Snow Showers
Hi: 31° Lo: 22°
Cloudy with snow showers. High 31F and low 22F.
Precip chance 55%

[Extremeweatherguy]

Sleet now in the forecast for College Station tonight/tomorrow...

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 6.3124&e=0

[Portastorm]

Yeah, we have sleet in our forecast as well here in Austin:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... TextType=2

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yeah, we have sleet in our forecast as well here in Austin:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... TextType=2

I'm sorry, a few ice pellets with surface temps above freezing just isn't enough for me.


I despair of any real winter weather this year for STX.

[CaptinCrunch]

Our local weather forecasters missed the low temp this morning by 3 and 7 degrees. They forecasted morning lows of 31 in FTW and 32 in Dallas, it was 24 in FTW and 29 in Dallas, and highs wont get out of the upper 30's today.

AFD FTW TX

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL HAVE
UNDERCUT MAV/MEX GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...WILL KEEP BELOW FREEZING TEMPS IN OUR
NORTHWEST TUES MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THOSE AREAS. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS /SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH/...ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. CURRENT
THINKING LEANS TOWARD DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SO WILL OPT TO REMOVE
MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY
HAVE TO REINTRODUCE FROZEN PRECIP IF MODELS BECOME MORE BULLISH WITH
MOISTURE DEPTH.

[Portastorm]

Yup, once again all the modeling underestimated the cold air. How many times have we seen this??

Our temps in Austin have been dropping all morning but looks like there leveling off near freezing. My part of town (north) is at 31 degrees and areas further north in the upper 20s. If we get that cloud deck to our south moving in, I'm very skeptical that we'll reach our projected high of 46 degrees.