ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormHunter72]

Looking like gfs may be the founder of a trend. Keep him away

What are you talking about? 12Z GFS brings Matthew inland north of Cape Canaveral.

worst weather is east

[MGC]

Matthew's satellite presentation in the IR band showing northern part really starting to warm.....something is going on with Matt's core for sure....MGC

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looking like gfs may be the founder of a trend. Keep him away

Founder of what trend? Still shows Matthew making landfall in the Cape.

[ScottNAtlanta]

How long does a ERC typically take once the outer wall forms? And how much time does Matt have left over water?

all depends on many factors.. big one is the size.. this is a pretty small system so it could take hours..


honestly its happening rather quickly already interesting to see..

We will know much more when recon gets there to sample it

[NDG]

Saved radar loop.

http://i.imgur.com/ZDkzDgf.gif

Storm looks quite a bit further E than I was anticipating.

Yes, it is starting to look more like a landfall from Melbourne on north and, not from Port St Lucie, Cape Canaveral with the highest chance, IMO.

[jasons2k]

How long does a ERC typically take once the outer wall forms? And how much time does Matt have left over water?

There is no rule of thumb, it varies by storm. Ike started one and could never finish it off...

[Exalt]

Looking like gfs may be the founder of a trend. Keep him away

What are you talking about? 12Z GFS brings Matthew inland north of Cape Canaveral.

worst weather is east

What are you even talking about? That's heavily naive considering the massive ERC it's going through that will likely even out the eyewall and the CDO, therefore the winds and weather. And whether or not the worst weather is on one side or another doesn't matter, if the core makes landfall you're screwed already.

[Raebie]

How long does a ERC typically take once the outer wall forms? And how much time does Matt have left over water?

There is no rule of thumb, it varies by storm. Ike started one and could never finish it off...

Thanks...was just looking for averages. Guess we're about to find out.

[Patrick99]

It seems like it missed Miami well offshore.

Yup. As I thought and similar to David....very little going on here. From this angle of approach, on the SW side of a hurricane...you just dont get all that much. Occasional rain band, but it's disingenuous to say that a rain band is anywhere near as hazardous as being in that little core "donut" around the eye. I suspect this is what will happen in much of South Florida. Just looking with my eyes at the way it's moving, it might just stay off the Florida coast altogether. Not a forecast, just observation. It didn't jog west enough to be a significant factor for Dade, increasingly Broward. We'll see with PBC and points north.

[stephen23]

Looks like outer eye has finally cut off flow to old eye

[Weatherboy1]

Seems like we're seeing more northerly wobbles than westerly wobbles. IF that keeps up, it would be a good development here in Palm Beach County. We will see

[Raebie]

Seems like we're seeing more northerly wobbles than westerly wobbles. IF that keeps up, it would be a good development here in Palm Beach County. We will see

But more time over water. Not good with an ERC going on.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Don't focus on wobbles. Hurricanes of Matthew's intensity do NOT follow a straight line. The overall average motion is unchanged.

[Sanibel]

Light blustery winds here from the N, nothing worth reporting. Broken lower deck clouds entrained N to S.


If that outer eyewall takes over it could drive the hardest winds deeper inland.


Headed to high bridge on Sanibel Causeway to look at bands before it rains.

[Aric Dunn]

Seems like we're seeing more northerly wobbles than westerly wobbles. IF that keeps up, it would be a good development here in Palm Beach County. We will see

with the ERC happening it is not a good idea to watch the wobbles that inner eye is going to start bouncing around alot..

[ZX12R]

Looks like outer eye has finally cut off flow to old eye

And it seems to have happened pretty quickly. But I don't have the experience to know that.

[StormHunter72]

The trend is our friend

[stephen23]

Question for the pro mets. Is it true that an eyewall replacement cycle if given enough time can actually help to transition hurricane into annular?

[Aric Dunn]

definitely appears to be some sort of northerly shear going on.. cant tell from what though..

[1900hurricane]

As of the moment, the outer eyewall has a radius of 38 miles/diameter of 76 miles. With an outer eyewall that large, I'd guess this is probably a 24 hour or so eyewall replacement if uninterrupted. The moat extends completely around the inner eyewall on 1.3* tilt now as well, so this eyewall replacement is going forward.