Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Also, to follow up with SSW effects, generally when this phenomenon occurs, cold weather outbreaks takes place simultaneously across Europe and Eastern North America. Generally, SSW causes the displacement of the Polar Vortex for an extended period of time, something we may see evolving beginning next week down across Eastern North America.

[TheStormExpert]

Just like these Polar Vortex displacements we saw last year where the cold air would bypass Florida to the north, that looks like it may indeed be the same case this time around. We will just have to wait and see though.

And as for Thansgiving weekend being cold for the Eastern half of the U.S., it's too early to worry but according to some weather sites and local news sites it should be the complete opposite (according to them) with above average warmth across the Eastern half of the U.S. Once again it's a wait and see situation though.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Just like these Polar Vortex displacements we saw last year where the cold air would bypass Florida to the north, that looks like it may indeed be the same case this time around. We will just have to wait and see though.

And as for Thansgiving weekend being cold for the Eastern half of the U.S., it's too early to worry but according to some weather sites and local news sites it should be the complete opposite (according to them) with above average warmth across the Eastern half of the U.S. Once again it's a wait and see situation though.

Well, if you read the previous page, I had last night cautioned asd123 that it's still a bit too early to assess what it will be like around Thanksgiving. But, the pattern could evolve into a very cold one by that time as we have extensively covered over already.

Also, as I have pointed out and discussed, we have to see how cold it will get in the Deep South. I discussed this in the Deep South Wx Discussion thread as well. Florida got lucky last year dodging these arctic intrusions, but this Fall/Winter we may not be so fortunate potentially. We will know more next week on how it will unfold one way or the other.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Just like these Polar Vortex displacements we saw last year where the cold air would bypass Florida to the north, that looks like it may indeed be the same case this time around. We will just have to wait and see though.

And as for Thansgiving weekend being cold for the Eastern half of the U.S., it's too early to worry but according to some weather sites and local news sites it should be the complete opposite (according to them) with above average warmth across the Eastern half of the U.S. Once again it's a wait and see situation though.

Well, if you read the previous page, I have cautioned asd123 that it's still a bit too early to assess what it will be like around Thanksgiving. But, the pattern could evolve into a very cold one by that time as we have extensively covered over already.

Also, as I have pointed out and discussed, we have to see how cold it will get in the Deep South. I discussed this in the Deep South Wx Discussion thread as well. Florida got lucky last year dodging these arctic intrusions, but this Fall/Winter we may not be so fortunate potentially. We will know more next week on how it will unfold one way or the other.

The weak El Nino will keep heights lower over Florida this winter with the subtropical jet. It will be easier for cold air to penetrate with lower heights and the NAO will likely be mostly negative as well which is colder signal for Florida. One of the analog years that had a mid November cold outbreak (with the weak Nino, -AO/-NAO/+PNA) that we've been discussing in the Texas thread is 1976. It snowed down to Homestead January 1977 just sayin but don't quote me on it!

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Just like these Polar Vortex displacements we saw last year where the cold air would bypass Florida to the north, that looks like it may indeed be the same case this time around. We will just have to wait and see though.

And as for Thansgiving weekend being cold for the Eastern half of the U.S., it's too early to worry but according to some weather sites and local news sites it should be the complete opposite (according to them) with above average warmth across the Eastern half of the U.S. Once again it's a wait and see situation though.

Well, if you read the previous page, I have cautioned asd123 that it's still a bit too early to assess what it will be like around Thanksgiving. But, the pattern could evolve into a very cold one by that time as we have extensively covered over already.

Also, as I have pointed out and discussed, we have to see how cold it will get in the Deep South. I discussed this in the Deep South Wx Discussion thread as well. Florida got lucky last year dodging these arctic intrusions, but this Fall/Winter we may not be so fortunate potentially. We will know more next week on how it will unfold one way or the other.

The weak El Nino will keep heights lower over Florida this winter with the subtropical jet. It will be easier for cold air to penetrate with lower heights and the NAO will likely be mostly negative as well which is colder signal for Florida. One of the analog years that had a mid November cold outbreak (with the weak Nino, -AO/-NAO/+PNA) that we've been discussing in the Texas thread is 1976. In snowed down to Homestead January 1977 just sayin

I agree with this assessment Ntxw. Generally, El-Nino pattern is already setting up in my view, and the AO/NAO looks to stay negative for quite awhile. I would not be surprised at all that Texas, and portions of the Deep South may see the potential of several winter weather events this upcoming season. Heck, we already have had the first Deep South snow (in SC) already, which was last weekend.

[asd123]

:uarrow: Just like these Polar Vortex displacements we saw last year where the cold air would bypass Florida to the north, that looks like it may indeed be the same case this time around. We will just have to wait and see though.

And as for Thansgiving weekend being cold for the Eastern half of the U.S., it's too early to worry but according to some weather sites and local news sites it should be the complete opposite (according to them) with above average warmth across the Eastern half of the U.S. Once again it's a wait and see situation though.

Well, if you read the previous page, I had last night cautioned asd123 that it's still a bit too early to assess what it will be like around Thanksgiving. But, the pattern could evolve into a very cold one by that time as we have extensively covered over already.


Also, as I have pointed out and discussed, we have to see how cold it will get in the Deep South. I discussed this in the Deep South Wx Discussion thread as well. Florida got lucky last year dodging these arctic intrusions, but this Fall/Winter we may not be so fortunate potentially. We will know more next week on how it will unfold one way or the other.

Although the pattern looks very favorable for cold weather, you're absolutely right that it's too early; don't want to get my hopes up and then be upset if it changes.

Florida did get lucky for the Arctic intrusions like you said, except for the panhandle and northern Florida where Crestview saw a high of 28 and snow and the entire northern Florida had some kind of winter weather watch/warning. Aside from that, the arctic air didn't make it much more south. I in Orlando didn't see much in the way of arctic weather. Never made it further south than Gainesville.

[northjaxpro]

Aside from the arctic cold spell which was experienced in North Florida last January, we had mostly a positive NAO/AO pattern most of winter 2013/'14. There was the ever present stubborn Southeastern U.S./SW North Atlantic upper ridge that effectively blocked or shunted the cold air intrusions from penetrating south down into Florida. Last winter ended up being one of the warmest on record across the state as a result. At my locale, I measured only a total of nine freezes, which is only about half of the total number of freezes we typically get in an average winter here in Jacksonville.

This Fall/Winter may signal a different tune for Florida. All dependent on the teleconnections and the development of at least a weak/moderate El Nino. AO and NAO continue to stay negative and if this trend continues, could see significant cold spells for the peninsula this season. Subtropical jet could spell wet weather for the peninsula at times as well with the ensuing El Nino.

[NDG]

According to the GFS and Euro for at least in the 4-7 day range the Arctic air mass invading the central and eastern US will have a tough time making it down to central and southern FL, as heights will stay high with the trough's axis staying north and west of FL

[gatorcane]

The 00Z Parallel GFS continues showing the coldest anomalies north and west of the FL peninsula through 168 hours:

[TheStormExpert]

Well it's looking less likely today than the past few that any decent cold fronts will pass through S. FL. With the NAO positive and hanging in the Positive/Neutral phase for the next two weeks it looks like, cold air will really struggle to come south of N. FL. The AO is expected to abruptly dive negative, but without the negative NAO that is kind of useless right?

[NDG]

Exactly correct, the -AO doesn't do much to the FL Peninsula without a -NAO. IMO.

[TheStormExpert]

By just looking at that graphic gatorcane posted you can kind of tell where this trough is setting up which looks to be in the Midwest/Great Plains region. This is in part of the NAO being negative.

[gatorcane]

The latest ECMWF continues to show the coldest anomalies staying well north of the Florida..120,144, and 168 hour graphics below, as the cold air shift east but doesn't make it that far south.

[SFLcane]

Gatorcane in terms of FL getting cold wx the latest PNA/NAO values aren't that extreme (barely 1 unit), so that by itself doesn't favor a strong and deep trough in the east. The positive PDO and slightly warm ENSO aren't that strong either, so what we have in the southern stream is just enough energy for low amplitude systems to move through Florida. This means near or even slightly cooler than normal temps/above normal precip, with the coldest air staying well to our north. That's the current pattern and we'll see how it changes over the next few months. Watch the combination of PNA/NAO (+/-). As you know, these indices can't be predicted with much accuracy beyond 2 weeks, and I certainly won't pretend that i have the secret to forecasting it!

[asd123]

While the GFS current is only predicting lower 60s for central Florida for 11/18, the parallel GFS is predicting a freeze for Central Florida

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
Parallel GFS


Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
Current GFS


GEM upper 50s

What do yall make of this?

[NDG]

While the GFS current is only predicting lower 60s for central Florida for 11/18, the parallel GFS is predicting a freeze for Central Florida

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
Parallel GFS
http://i57.tinypic.com/14xkz7q.png

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
Current GFS
http://i59.tinypic.com/fpaw0o.png

GEM upper 50s

What do yall make of this?

Parallel GFS has been too aggressive or maybe too progressive in its forecast past the 7 day range with the pattern setting up, IMO. Not until the Euro starts agreeing with it will I pay much attention to it in its 8-14 day range.

[NDG]

Good job by the euro once again on forecasting this mini nor'easter off the coast of Daytona days ago.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, interesting feature with the cold core Low off the coast of Daytona Beach. I agree NDG that EURO had forecasted this for the past several days. It almost looks subtropical in nature if you ask me with the appearance of even some impressive rain bands spiraling around the cold core Low center just off the coast. .There have been some brief rain showers in portions of Jax this afternoon and northerly winds gusted at times up to 25 mph this afternoon. But now, the system is slowly pulling away from the coast and hopefully surface ridging will commence here in Jax tomorrow and temps will rebound back to the mid-upper 70s for max temps.

[northjaxpro]

According to the GFS and Euro for at least in the 4-7 day range the Arctic air mass invading the central and eastern US will have a tough time making it down to central and southern FL, as heights will stay high with the trough's axis staying north and west of FL

Later this week across our interior Northern peninsula zones, Friday and Saturday mornings look to drop into the 30s with potential of light freeze over the panhandle and Big Bend/ Suwannee River Valley regions as we get a brief intrusion of the polar air mass coming down into the Great Plains currently. However, as referenced in your above post NDG, heights don't appear to lower enough to allow the cold air to penetrate farther southward down the peninsula late this week. The massive Polar High, analyzed to be at 1049 mb on the latest GFS run, and its axis late this week will remain well north and slide eastward to the mid-Atlantic region by Sunday. Also on this upcoming Sunday, models bring a shortwave trough through the Southern Plains and helps to develop a surface Low Pressure off the Texas coast. This system will move east and will spread moisture along the Gulf Coast and rain should reach across the panhandle during Sunday and spread over the remainder of North Florida Sunday night into early Monday.

I am still watching for the time frame of Nov 18-22 (just within the 10 day forecast period from now) for the potential of another possible arctic cold surge coming down into the Central and Eastern CONUS. Still too soon to analyze that far out regarding impacts concerning cold potential to the FL peninsula, but depending how the pattern shakes down, it is something to keep an eye on down the road.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

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