ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

That's more than half of the current total for the West Pacific.

Add Jose and Katia and we might be giving the WPAC a race

Total Atlantic Ace is past each of those two basins.

#WeWon

#Winning

Uh, dang.

[johngaltfla]

I've got more work to do gang, to those prepping, good luck, to those driving good luck, to those who think this is no big deal: AMF.

[KBBOCA]

Just saw pics on national tv, been waiting for them, from the British Virgin Islands. British Virgins caught direct hit. Y'all, incredible. Maybe someone could post them.

lots already posted here the past day or two. Probably best to now focus on the impending situation for Florida...

[Blown Away]

Always follow NHC, but a slight W shift and Irma's eye technically could miss the Keys to the W and possibly the peninsula. JMHO

or a slight nne to ne wobble and MIami is in the right front eyewall..

Of course that's possible, but no model guidance even suggesting that as an option anymore. As always you must watch closely until it's passed...

[NDG]

So Cat 5 again?

URNT12 KNHC 090010
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 08/23:52:10Z
B. 22 deg 08 min N
077 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2440 m
D. 145 kt
E. 343 deg 19 nm
F. 079 deg 154 kt
G. 343 deg 21 nm
H. 925 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 19 C / 3051 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 343 / 21 NM 23:45:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 9 KT
;

[BYG Jacob]

NHC maxed their mid range error rate with Irma and Florida... NHC going to take some heat from public opinion, unfairly...

You're going to have to explain this one to me, with diagrams. This link might help: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line

Yeah, the NHC has basically predicted Irma's track to the forecast point for Irma. There's no feasible way to blame them.

[Aric Dunn]

Always follow NHC, but a slight W shift and Irma's eye technically could miss the Keys to the W and possibly the peninsula. JMHO

or a slight nne to ne wobble and MIami is in the right front eyewall..

Of course that's possible, but no model guidance even suggesting that as an option anymore. As always you must watch closely until it's passed...

models dont forecast wobbles.. it happppppeeennnnssssss every time.. a wobble here a wobble there all not forecast..

[BYG Jacob]

So Cat 5 again?

URNT12 KNHC 090010
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 08/23:52:10Z
B. 22 deg 08 min N
077 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2440 m
D. 145 kt
E. 343 deg 19 nm
F. 079 deg 154 kt
G. 343 deg 21 nm
H. 925 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 19 C / 3051 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 343 / 21 NM 23:45:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 9 KT
;

Yup, NHC went with 140 Knots.

[meriland29]

Does anyone have a image of the most recent recon pass?

[KBBOCA]

GOES 16 shot:

 https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/906318555876126722

[NDG]

So Cat 5 again?

URNT12 KNHC 090010
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 08/23:52:10Z
B. 22 deg 08 min N
077 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2440 m
D. 145 kt
E. 343 deg 19 nm
F. 079 deg 154 kt
G. 343 deg 21 nm
H. 925 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 19 C / 3051 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 343 / 21 NM 23:45:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 9 KT
;

Yup, NHC went with 140 Knots.

Sorry, hard to keep up when averaging 4 hrs of sleep this week starts catching up.

[Evil Jeremy]

Always follow NHC, but a slight W shift and Irma's eye technically could miss the Keys to the W and possibly the peninsula. JMHO

or a slight nne to ne wobble and MIami is in the right front eyewall..

Of course that's possible, but no model guidance even suggesting that as an option anymore. As always you must watch closely until it's passed...

Storms like this one, the record breakers, deserve the extra caution. Until it passes, I'm bracing for the worst. I'm breathing easier tonight than yesterday, but you can't let your guard down with this one.

[BYG Jacob]

So Cat 5 again?

URNT12 KNHC 090010
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 08/23:52:10Z
B. 22 deg 08 min N
077 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2440 m
D. 145 kt
E. 343 deg 19 nm
F. 079 deg 154 kt
G. 343 deg 21 nm
H. 925 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 19 C / 3051 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 343 / 21 NM 23:45:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 9 KT
;

Yup, NHC went with 140 Knots.

Sorry, hard to keep up when averaging 4 hrs of sleep this week starts catching up.

I feel you there, don't worry about it.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=26.82;-79.4 ... /21&m=icon
Heavy duty wind driven waves 40 plus ft.

[tolakram]

The chatroom is crowded this evening for those who want to join.

See this post: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=111692

[Sciencerocks]

Taking a break to the plane

[jdjaguar]

So Cat 5 again?

URNT12 KNHC 090010
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 08/23:52:10Z
B. 22 deg 08 min N
077 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2440 m
D. 145 kt
E. 343 deg 19 nm
F. 079 deg 154 kt
G. 343 deg 21 nm
H. 925 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 19 C / 3051 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 343 / 21 NM 23:45:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 9 KT
;

Yup, NHC went with 140 Knots.

Sorry, hard to keep up when averaging 4 hrs of sleep this week starts catching up.

4? I've been on 3 hour cycles..jk

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906321280810590208




Mets watching ADT Dvorak: 6.2 --> 7.2 in 3.5 hours http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... ist-PG.txt … Hurricane #Irma symmetric cloud canopy cooling rapidly.

[WeatherGuesser]

Not buying the pool bit. Might be OK for a normal heavy rain, or maybe even a TS. But predictions here are for 20-30" of rain, maybe more and who knows how much storm surge in many areas. Draining a couple hundred gallons out of a pool ain't gonna make no difference.

[dgparent]

FYI for those of you with DirecTv they are starting the storm mix channel as noon tomorrow which I believe is a mix of local area TV stations, they are on channels 361-1 and 361-2