Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1158 AM AST WED MAY 11 2011

.UPDATE...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A BROAD TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE AREA AND LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH THE ALREADY UNSTABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...EXPECT
BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. SO FAR SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR...AND EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
QUICKLY INCREASED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL STEER THE ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE WHICH HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON PRESENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION RIVER AND STREAMS REMAIN AT HIGH LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DURING THE DAY WILL CAUSE
SOME OF THE RIVERS AND STREAM TO QUICKLY RISE. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR RIVER AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST TIL
12/17Z...THEREAFTER INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH DEVELOPING SHRA AND
ISOLD-SCT TSRA WILL LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AND EN ROUTE BTW NRN LEEWARDS AND PR.NO OTHER CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST WED MAY 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP LAYER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE IS TO MEANDER OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE START TO
PULL NORTHEAST...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE DURING THE
WEEKEND WHEN A CONVERGENCE PATTERN ALOFT ESTABLISHES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING
THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTHEAST OF SAINT JOHN. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE ENE AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD DEEP LAYER LOW OVER
THE NW ATLANTIC AND A INDUCED TROUGH/SHEAR LINE CONFLUENT OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI IS SUSTAINING A MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA
IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS FAVORING A GENERALLY
DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. WITH THIS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT...UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT
IN DEPICTING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES STREAMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. DUE TO THE
SOIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED AND RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN AT HIGH
LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME OF THE
RIVERS AND STREAM TO QUICKLY RISE. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC PROMOTING A CONVERGENCE PATTERN
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES. HOWEVER AT LEAST UNTIL 11/23Z PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA OR TSRA...MAINLY OVR OR VCNTY OF TJSJ...TIST
AND TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK. MTN TOP OBSCURATION ALSO PSBL
WITH PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSTM OVER THE E AND W INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PR.

&&

.MARINE...BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NW WESTERN ATLANTIC IS GENERATING
A NORTH SWELLS OF 6 FEET THAT WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
TOMORROW EVENING INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL SEAS OF GENERALLY 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 85 / 20 70 30 40
STT 75 84 74 82 / 40 70 30 40

[Macrocane]

Heavy showers have developed this afternoon and evening in Central America, I will post some observations tomorrow. These are the most widespread rains in the region since last October, it seems that our rainy season has begun. Some locations registered again very warm highs but other stations have experienced the coolest highs in at least 2 weeks, cooler highs can be expected on the next few weeks as the warmest period of the year in Central America (March-Apr-May) is coming to an end.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.6°C (72.7°F) Warmest for 2011, tied April 27.
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.9°C (51.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.8°C (56.8°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.6°C (76.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.6°C (76.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.9°C (62.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.7°C (71.1°F).
Zacapa, Guatemala 39°C (102°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.7°C (85.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.6°C (70.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.0°C (98.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30.6°C (87.1°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 30°C (86°C)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1004 PM AST WED MAY 11 2011

.UPDATE...EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED
SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH TO ALTER
THE WEATHER...SKY COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN MOST ZONES. FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THE
PREVIOUS CWF...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THOUGH LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...EXPECT MORE
FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...AND EVEN
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Tue-8pmET Wed) for
Wed May 11 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 33.2C 92F 0.9mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.7C 87F 9.4mm
Crown Point, Tobag0 31.5C 89F trace

Point Salines, Grenada 31.1C 88F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.9C 87F 0.3mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 31.3C 88F 1.5mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.7C 89F
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 31.1C 88F
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 32.0C 90F trace

Melville Hall, Dominica 31.2C 88F 0.1mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 32.6C 91F
LeRaizet, Guadeloupe 30.7C 87F 2.0mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.6C 87F trace
VC Bird, Antigua 32.0C 90F trace
St Thomas, VI 30.6C 87F 1.3mm
St Croix, VI 30.0C 86F
San Juan, PR 29.4C 85F trace

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.6C 87F
Kingston, Jamaica 32.9C 91F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.1C 90F
Havana, Cuba 34.4C 94F
Key West, FL 29.4C 85F
Marathon, Fl 31.1C 88F
Miami, FL 32.8C 91F
Nassau, Bahamas 31.2C 88F
Hamilton, Bermuda 21.9C 72F 2.1mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 30.8C 87F
Queen Beatrix Airport, Aruba 33.8C 93F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 31.5C 89F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

Good morning.More rain is expected today for Puerto Rico.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST THU MAY 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC WILL DEAMPLIFY
OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROP ATLC WILL
BUILD WWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100-KT JET STREAK
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF HAITI TO THE NORTH OF PUNTA CANA IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PER MOST RECENT ACARS PLOT. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
THESE TWO FEATURES MOVING ACROSS PR/USVI LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE WX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
LIFT LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
LIMTING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ARE STORM MOTION
GREATER THAN 10 KT AND PW VALUES LESS THAN 2.0 INCHES. OF POTENTIALLY
GREATER CONCERN IS SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEEN ON FCST
SOUNDINGS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES AS THE DAY
GOES ON. 0-3KM STORM REL HELICITIES ARE DECENT WITH SWEAT INDICES
UPWARDS OF 300 SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ENE AND AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND.

CUTOFF LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIVERT S/W
VORTICES ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOCUSING NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND AFFECTING THE NORTH COAST OF PR.

UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE TROP ATLC MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOK MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT DAILY CONVECTION
WITH THE NW COAST THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION IN A SOUTHEAST
STEERING FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT JSJ/IST LATER TODAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS. JSJ AND JBQ WILL HAVE
THE BEST OF EXPERIENCING AFTERNOON TSRA OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BUILT UP TO 6 FEET IN NORTH SWELLS AT BUOY
41043. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY ACROSS THE ATLC
COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING WITH 4-6 FT LIKELY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
ATLC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 84 74 / 70 50 70 20
STT 84 75 85 75 / 70 50 30 40

[cycloneye]

Here is an updated discussion about what to expect this afternoon in Puerto Rico in terms of the rainfall that is forecasted.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1128 AM AST THU MAY 12 2011

.UPDATE...
NO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS JUST YET...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW QUICK PASSING RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...AND JUST OFFSHORE OF SAINT CROIX.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO...
WHILE FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE ISLANDS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHERE A WATERSPOUT WAS OBSERVED
BY A PILOT AND SEVERAL RESIDENTS. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...
STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE FAIRLY THICK MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER LAND. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO BE VERY EXPLOSIVE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. THEREFORE NO CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR NOW AS WE EXPECT THIS MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITE THROUGH AT LEAST 12/17Z.
THEREAFTER FM 12/17Z-12/23Z EXPECT VCSH/VCTS NR MOST TAF SITES
WITH PSBL TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECIALLY AT TJMZ...TJSJ...
TJNR...TJPS DUE AFTN CONVECTION WITH LOW CIGS AND PDS OF LOCALLY
HVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE OVR PART
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL DUE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST THU MAY 12 2011

PRC003-005-011-013-017-027-039-047-051-054-065-071-081-083-091-097-
099-101-115-117-131-135-141-143-145-122100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0078.110512T1805Z-110512T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-FLORIDA PR-MOROVIS PR-MOCA PR-
TOA ALTA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-
AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-LAS MARIAS PR-LARES PR-DORADO PR-BARCELONETA
PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-MANATI PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-VEGA BAJA PR-RINCON
PR-ANASCO PR-ARECIBO PR-
205 PM AST THU MAY 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...CIALES...COROZAL...FLORIDA...MOROVIS...MOCA...TOA
ALTA...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...VEGA ALTA...
AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LAS MARIAS...LARES...DORADO...
BARCELONETA...CAMUY...HATILLO...MANATI...MAYAGUEZ...VEGA BAJA...
RINCON...ANASCO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 157 PM AST...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS AND ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS NOW OCCURRING IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES
FROM AGUADILLA EAST TO VEGA BAJA. SO FAR DOPPLER RAINFALL ESTIMATES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN 1 OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA AT LEAST UNTIL 5:00 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN OR MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1825 6724 1853 6717 1847 6627 1832 6626

$$

RAM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
328 PM AST THU MAY 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND AN INDUCED
TROUGH AT LOW LEVELS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS. AFTERWARDS...
THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY GIVING WAY TO A MIXED TRADE WIND AND
CONVECTIVE WEATHER WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LAND/SEA BREEZES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE CELLS FIRED UP EARLIER THIS MORNING AFFECTING
MAINLY THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR NAGUABO AND
CEIBA DEVELOPED A FEW WATERSPOUTS AT AROUND 8 AM AST THIS MORNING.
THERE ARE STILL SOME HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTH COAST MUNICIPALITIES AND OVER THE MONA PASSAGE...AND WILL
PROBABLY AFFECT THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THOUGH THESE ARE WEAKER BUT WILL DEFINITELY
BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING.
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINED CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...PREVENTING THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER
THE ISLANDS. BUT THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD DEEP LAYER LOW OVER
THE NW ATLANTIC AND A INDUCED TROUGH/SHEAR LINE CONFLUENT OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...THE
SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
FAVORING A GENERALLY DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TOMORROW. OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN RATHER
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST CHARTS FINALLY HINT A
POSSIBLE RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR COND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.
HOWEVER AT LEAST UNTIL 12/23Z PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN PASSING ISOLD SHRA OR TSRA...MAINLY OVR OR VCNTY OF TJSJ...TIST
AND TISX...AS WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK. MTN TOP OBSCURATION ALSO PSBL
WITH PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSTM OVER THE E AND W INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PR TIL 12/23Z. GENERAL WND FLOW SFC-10K FT FM THE SSW AT 5-15 KTS...
THEN VEERING AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCR WITH HT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY WND
MAX IN EXCESS OF 85 KTS BTW 35-40K FT...AS SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA
STREAMS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS A NORTHERLY SWELLS INVADE THE COASTAL WATERS.
AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE...AS WELL AS THE
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 84 / 50 70 20 60
STT 75 84 74 83 / 50 30 40 30

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
638 PM AST THU MAY 12 2011

VIC010-130030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0079.110512T2238Z-110513T0030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT CROIX VI-
638 PM AST THU MAY 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX

* UNTIL 830 PM AST

AT 630 PM AST...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS...BUT WILL
MOVE ACROSS ST CROIX IN THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ST CROIX PRODUCING 1 OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
LEAST UNTIL 830 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...
AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 1769 6460 1762 6479 1764 6490 1768 6494
1776 6496 1783 6472 1780 6457 1776 6454

$$

FIGUEROA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
841 PM AST THU MAY 12 2011

VIC020-030-130245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0080.110513T0041Z-110513T0245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-
841 PM AST THU MAY 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 1045 PM AST

* AT 8:35 PM AST...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE
WATERS...BUT WILL MOVE ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL MINUTES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE ISLANDS
PRODUCING 1 OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL AT LEAST UNTIL 1045 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...
AND LOW SPOTS IN ROADS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6470 1827 6498 1831 6510 1842 6510
1844 6506 1840 6500 1847 6490 1840 6484
1840 6467 1831 6463

$$

FIGUEROA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Good morning.More rain is expected for today in Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands as the trough lingers near the area.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST FRI MAY 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND
AN INDUCED TROUGH AT LOW LEVELS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ISLANDS. AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY GIVING WAY TO A
MIXED TRADE WIND AND CONVECTIVE WEATHER WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND LAND/SEA BREEZES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BUT THEY MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN
WATERS MAINLY AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT SIMILAR AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE.

MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...GIVING THE CHANCE OF MORE DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR
OVER LAND. THIS WILL IGNITE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCEMENT. THEREFORE EXPECT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 13/16Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN PASSING ISOLD SHRA OR TSRA...MAINLY OVR OR VCNTY OF TIST
AND TISX. AFTER 13/16Z...TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 3K FEET...THEN VEERING AND
SIGNIFICANTLY INCR WITH HT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY WND MAX IN EXCESS OF
95 KTS BTW 35-40K FT...AS SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA STREAMS ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA.


&&

.MARINE...STRAONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY. THE AREAS MOST AFFECTED WILL BE THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE WATERS EAST OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SURROUNDING WATERS. NORTHERN SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND
BEFORE THEY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 72 84 75 / 60 20 60 20
STT 83 74 85 77 / 40 40 30 40

[cycloneye]

Two belated flood advisories.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1116 AM AST FRI MAY 13 2011

PRC055-079-083-093-121-125-131730-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0085.000000T0000Z-110513T1730Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-GUANICA PR-
LAJAS PR-
1116 AM AST FRI MAY 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...LAS MARIAS...GUANICA AND
LAJAS

* UNTIL 130 PM AST

* AT 1114 AM AST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER AND
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS INDICATED THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. IN ADDITION...RUNOFF FROM
EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BEGUN TO AFFECT RIVER AND SMALL STREAMS
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...AND WILL CAUSE QUICK RIVER RISES. AT
LEAST UNTIL 1:30 PM AST EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINS AND RUNOFF TO AFFECT
THESE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN OR MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1817 6705 1823 6704 1825 6702 1824 6695
1798 6692 1799 6712

$$
RAM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1031 AM AST FRI MAY 13 2011

PRC013-017-054-091-143-145-131730-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0086.110513T1431Z-110513T1730Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLORIDA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-BARCELONETA PR-MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
ARECIBO PR-
1031 AM AST FRI MAY 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
FLORIDA...VEGA ALTA...BARCELONETA...MANATI...VEGA BAJA AND
ARECIBO

* UNTIL 130 PM AST

* AT 1026 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN
1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS AS WELL AS QUICK RISES
IN RIVER AND STREAMS. AT LEAST UNTIL 1:30 AM AST...ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1834 6677 1848 6677 1848 6632 1837 6632

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST FRI MAY 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY
IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND WHEN A CONVERGENCE PATTERN ALOFT
ESTABLISHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER WAS SEEN ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THE MOST INTENSE SHOWERS OCCURRED THIS MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO WERE GENERALLY RECEIVED BETWEEN TWO
TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME
AREAS OF SAN GERMAN AND LAJAS. ALTHOUGH...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND. AT THIS TIME...NWS DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATES MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS...BUT OVER LAND ONLY REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS COASTAL WATERS.

HERE MAY FINALLY BE A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN
ISLANDS...AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW FINALLY DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS AND WEAKENING OVER
THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...THOUGH SHALL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE AIR MASS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. MUCH DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO ALL
ISLANDS BY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WETTER PATTERN RETURNS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS STREAM ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF DEEP LAYERED CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLYING AREA BTW ERN PR AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
THROUGH 13/03Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDS DUE TO LOW CIGS
WITH SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS TJSJ..TJNR...TISX...TIST...TCNM
AND TKPK. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT BCMG SW AT
15-20 KTS UP TO 15K FT...THEN BCMG WESTERLY ABV WITH WND MAX IN
EXCESS OF 90 KTS BTW 35-40K FT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
HOWEVER...SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 75 86 / 20 50 20 50
STT 75 83 76 84 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

Off Topic=A quake has ratteled Costa Rica.See the detailed information at the geology forum.

viewforum.php?f=67

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST FRI MAY 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...CUTOFF LOW NORTH OF BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS
PR/USVI SAT. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROP ATLC WILL BUILD WWD
INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH TIME AS BROAD TROF ACROSS THE ATLC AND INDUCED/INVERTED
SFC TROF ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. MID-LEVEL
DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA OVR THE PAST 12 HRS WITH
DEEP COLD CONVECTION NOW OUT OF THE FCST AREA OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
EXPECT SHALLOW CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
UNDER A MOIST AND SHALLOW UNSTABLE LYR.

LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS PR/USVI TOMORROW. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRIGGER NMRS SHRA/TSRA THAT SHOULD CONCENTRATE NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL UNDER A SSW STEERING FLOW. WHILE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER THAN PAST TWO DAYS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH WITH 0-3KM SRH IN THE 50-100
M^2/S^2 RANGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF SPINUPS AND POSSIBLE
WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES. STORM MOTION WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING
OVER 12 KTS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS DUE TO LOW CIGS WITH SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS TCNM AND TKPK THROUGH 14/02Z. AFTER
14/10Z...VCTS POSSIBLE FOR TJSJ AND TIST. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
SEAS 4-6 ATLC WATERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 1-3 FT BY MON. SEAS
1-3 FT CARIB WATERS IN SE WIND WAVES.


&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.7 INCHES WAS SET AT CYRIL E.
KING AIRPORT/USVI TODAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 0.52 SET IN
1961.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.More rain is forecast to fall today in Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST SAT MAY 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...CUTOFF LOW NORTH OF BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM NORTH OF HISPANIOLA SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS
PR/USVI TODAY. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROP ATLC WILL BUILD
WWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A QUITE NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN BEGAN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STATIONARY BUT THEY
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AND STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER WATERS.

THE INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
VARIABLE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID
MORNING...THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE CONVECTIVE PROCESS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER MID MORNING SKIES WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR THEREFORE
MORE SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL IGNITE ONCE AGAIN THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

MUCH DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO ALL ISLANDS BY SUNDAY...AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
WETTER PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS STREAM ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CONDS DUE TO LOW CIGS WITH SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND TJNR BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z. VCTS
POSSIBLE FOR TJSJ AND TIST. SFC WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH ACROSS MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH THE BUOY 41043 CONTINUE TO REPORT A NORTHERN
SWELL 6.9 FEET...IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MARINERS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF PUERTO RICO
SHOULD BE AWARE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 86 75 / 60 20 50 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1209 PM AST SAT MAY 14 2011

.UPDATE...THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED ALMOST IDENTICAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM 12 HOURS PREVIOUS...BUT CONSIDERABLY MORE INSTABILITY.
SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO HAVE MOVED ONSHORE AND THE
MOISTURE IS COMBINING WITH THE HEATING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH TOPS UP TO 40 KFT SO FAR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND ARE
GREATLY INFLUENCING THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF FORMATION OF THE
SHOWERS. HAVE RAISED THE POPS IN SOME PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OVERHEAD WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD VENTILATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AND RAPID RIVER RISES IN SOME PLACES. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND FILL-IN OVER THE ISLAND.
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MAY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MUCH LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND AND SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR OVER THEM WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS ARE VARIABLE...WITH SOME STATIONS REPORTING SEA
BREEZES AND SOME NOT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS THEIR VICINITY. WINDS FROM 44-46 THOUSAND FEET WERE 100
KNOTS IN THE SOUNDING...AND RISING FROM LESS THAN 5 TO AROUND 35
KNOTS FROM 4 TO 30 KFT. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDS MAY BE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN PUERTO RICO THROUGH
15/18Z.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC007-021-025-031-061-063-127-139-141745-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
110 PM AST SAT MAY 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 145 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...TRUJILLO ALTO...
GUAYNABO...CAROLINA AND SAN JUAN

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
BAIROA...BAYAMON...CAGUAS...GURABO...CELADA...GUAYNABO...SAN
JUAN AND TRUJILLO ALTO

AT 1259 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF TRUJILLO ALTO THAT WAS ESPECIALLY
STRONG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM MAY CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG WITH
BLINDING RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
123 PM AST SAT MAY 14 2011

PRC007-021-031-033-061-063-087-105-127-135-137-139-142015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0088.110514T1723Z-110514T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GURABO PR-NARANJITO PR-TOA ALTA PR-
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
LOIZA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
123 PM AST SAT MAY 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...NARANJITO...TOA ALTA...
TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA
AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 122 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR MORE

REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF FLOOD ROADWAYS IN THE GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1830 6623 1850 6621 1845 6587 1828 6603

$$

SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------