ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormTracker]

It seems like it missed Miami well offshore.

Yup. As I thought and similar to David....very little going on here. From this angle of approach, on the SW side of a hurricane...you just dont get all that much. Occasional rain band, but it's disingenuous to say that a rain band is anywhere near as hazardous as being in that little core "donut" around the eye. I suspect this is what will happen in much of South Florida. Just looking with my eyes at the way it's moving, it might just stay off the Florida coast altogether. Not a forecast, just observation. It didn't jog west enough to be a significant factor for Dade, increasingly Broward. We'll see with PBC and points north.

I was telling my mom and dad the same thing yesterday! As I was putting up shutters at the last minute when David was coming thru is when I got the most rain and hardly any wind! Same thing happened today, only because my wife was getting a little paranoid! But, better safe than sorry!!!

[adam0983]

When should we see Hurricane force winds in Boca Raton. Very quiet here at the moment. No one predicted this to be so Far East according to the latest model runs of the gfs and Euro.

[NativeFloridaGirl]

NOBODY IS "OFF THE HOOK" YET

Can we stop with all of this projection until the storm is beyond the area? Please?

Please don't scream at me. I'm very concerned and all I keep seeing is "it's going to the cape". It was a valid question.

[SapphireSea]

So Port St Lucie is off the hook?? That will be the best news ever! I'm worried about my son there.

New eye wall very much puts it on the hook and maybe even more so than ever.

[cfltrib]

For OrlandoKnight:
If you have large trees with large limbs near the house, it would be a good idea to move - even a couple blocks away to a clearer location.

[jasons2k]

Don't focus on wobbles. Hurricanes of Matthew's intensity do NOT follow a straight line. The overall average motion is unchanged.

I'm viewing a long-term loop...and it is east of the NHC forecast. Should miss the next forecast point to the east, unless the ridge is able to nudge it west again.

[fci]

Feeling better with the trends this afternoon as for what to expect in NE Palm Beach County, minimal hurricane force winds seems to be the worst ATM.

Not certain this is correct. Don't assume anything yet.

Also at 2:00 PM, Matthew was 125 ESE of WPB and moving NW.
That's a good thing for PBC

[Frank P]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.

Check back in 6 hours and let's see if you're still correct. These systems stair step.

Well that's a pretty bold statement Hammy, but I sure hope you are right for the great state of Florida, that would make a tremendous difference if it can stay off the coast 80 mile to the east, which would keep all the hurricane force sustained winds out to sea, but man I just don't see the NNW motion you are delineating... still looks to me on average NW... one wobble to the west later on down the road could have even more catastrophic implications...

[1900hurricane]

Even if Matthew does move right of forecast points and stays offshore, it will likely be in the final stages of eyewall replacement by that time, meaning winds will extend out considerably further. The outer eyewall is a tough wrinkle to throw into the forecast.

[Portastorm]

NOBODY IS "OFF THE HOOK" YET

Can we stop with all of this projection until the storm is beyond the area? Please?

Please don't scream at me. I'm very concerned and all I keep seeing is "it's going to the cape". It was a valid question.

Your best bet is to follow the official National Hurricane Center forecast, the local National Weather Service forecast for Port St. Lucie, and whatever the local officials there are saying. Until all three of those groups indicate an "all clear" ... then prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Take whatever you see on this forum with a grain of salt. It is simply a bunch of weather enthusiasts, some more educated than others, and a handful of "blue tag" professional meteorologists.

[EquusStorm]

At this rate I wonder if it IS going to pull a Gustav/Ike and struggle with Cuba inner core disruption until landfall. With a new eye wall that large I can't imagine it can close it up and reintensify TOO quickly.

[Alyono]

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/ ... 475772669/

136 dead and it seems the worst hit areas have not been reached

[GCANE]

Next Live Events (All Times EDT)
Today, 4:45 p.m. - International Space Station Flyover of Hurricane Matthew

http://www.nasa.gov/nasalive

[Hammy]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.

Check back in 6 hours and let's see if you're still correct. These systems stair step.

It would have to move in a straight line, or bend further west, to come ashore south of Jacksonville--and it's expected to start curving east south of there. It's been a steady movement when you average it since about 7-8am.



Extrapolated short and longer term movement--looks to be going east of the forecast points, but expected to curve more north before the point the extrapolation would bring it onshore.

[WPBWeather]

Feeling better with the trends this afternoon as for what to expect in NE Palm Beach County, minimal hurricane force winds seems to be the worst ATM.

Not certain this is correct. Don't assume anything yet.

Also at 2:00 PM, Matthew was 125 ESE of WPB and moving NW.
That's a good thing for PBC

If it lasts. Can't say that yet.

[jasons2k]

Extrapolated short and longer term movement--looks to be going east of the forecast points.

We have a winner!

Yes, this has been the trend all morning into this afternoon. That said, the ridge could still nudge it west. Every mile counts when it's paralleling the coast like this.

[tolakram]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.

Sorry Hammy, your statement is not horrible but it's a good example of something that needlessly riles up folks looking for information.

Everyone

THIS IS NOT THE TIME FOR AMATEUR PROCLAMATIONS.

We are in storm mode and those kinds of statements just fill the thread with questions or arguments and don't add any value. Everyone worries that someone reading something like this may make a bad decision based on an amateur analysis. Please just avoid making these kinds of statements.

[meriland23]

How is the intensity looking atm via radar?

[fci]

It seems like it missed Miami well offshore.

Yup. As I thought and similar to David....very little going on here. From this angle of approach, on the SW side of a hurricane...you just dont get all that much. Occasional rain band, but it's disingenuous to say that a rain band is anywhere near as hazardous as being in that little core "donut" around the eye. I suspect this is what will happen in much of South Florida. Just looking with my eyes at the way it's moving, it might just stay off the Florida coast altogether. Not a forecast, just observation. It didn't jog west enough to be a significant factor for Dade, increasingly Broward. We'll see with PBC and points north.

I was telling my mom and dad the same thing yesterday! As I was putting up shutters at the last minute when David was coming thru is when I got the most rain and hardly any wind! Same thing happened today, only because my wife was getting a little paranoid! But, better safe than sorry!!!

I really want to see the responses from those who were RAILING against the NHC and NWS for NOT extending Hurricane Warnings to Miami Dade County.
These folks know what they are doing.
They LIVE there and weren't "missing anything" when they made the Warning from the Dade/Broward line North.
Even those at the south end of the Warning will probably not experience Hurricane conditions, but that is OK.
So to those of you who wouldn't let it go even after being asked to; Think before you type.
Some of you were obnoxious about it.

[otowntiger]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.

Check back in 6 hours and let's see if you're still correct. These systems stair step.

Well that's a pretty bold statement Hammy, but I sure hope you are right for the great state of Florida, that would make a tremendous difference if it can stay off the coast 80 mile to the east, which would keep all the hurricane force sustained winds out to sea, but man I just don't see the NNW motion you are delineating... still looks to me on average NW... one wobble to the west later on down the road could have even more catastrophic implications...

True, but I think, at least right now we have two things working in our favor: 1. The storm is not intensifying and satellite presentation looks like weakening could be occurring and 2. I definitely think it looks to be moving more north than west. I can see what looks to be a smoothed out northerly curve happening. I'm actually not seeing 'wobbles' which are more 'stair stepping' like hard left and right moves. It seems pretty smoothly curving. I know this certainly doesn't mean that serious and damaging weather does not affect the east coast but I'm beginning to think it won't be as bad as it could have been. Just my two cents.