ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

They just said on the weather that they didn't expect it to enter Cuba so quickly. They thought it would just skim the Coast. We will see how far inland it goes, and if If rides a good length of Cuba before reamerging tomorrow. If will be interesting to see how much Cuba weakens it

[Bocadude85]

Almost looks like Irma took a SW dip into the Cuban Coast, didn't we see something similar with Isidore in the Yucatán?

[gatorcane]

The thing about these Hurricanes that are forecasted to make the famous poleward turn is that they could go a little to the right of the guidance, if we see the Euro stop its westward trend tonight I wouldn't doubt if that means that it will ultimately track a little to the right of the forecast track like they always seem to do. Matthew last year was a good example. SE FL don't let your guard down just yet for even stronger winds than have been forecasted for your area already.

Yep that is what I am watching for. Still wondering if it ends up east of what the models are showing taking more of the right side of the cone on the turn similar to what we saw with Matthew's turn. Basically it turns a bit more quickly and heads more north than NW into the weakness.

[Kazmit]

Has anyone heard from cycloneye? I haven't for a few days now.

[MacTavish]

Moment of truth for the NHC right now.

[SoupBone]

Anyone know if the Cuban government engaged their citizens about a potential landfall? I sure hope so.

[jdjaguar]

Look at Irma. WOW! She is intensifying rapidly. What a historic storm!! I have run out of superlatives for this monster!

Yeah, she's really taking off now. Once the new eyewall took over, bam. Might be a glancing blow to Cuba or its barrier Islands near Irma's center, until it makes the turn or starts to we'll know. Btw, the NWS of both Jax and Melbourne still forecast hurricane conditions for North and Central Florida for now and guessing that Irma is a Cat 5 now, maybe thw winds might be greater depending on any shifts... Still though, the Keys and South Florida are just going to get hammered, but thankfully my relatives that live in the Keys got out yesterday.

You cannot lump central Florida in with north Florida as Irma is expected to rapidly weaken. at present time north Florida is projected to experience at most CAT 1

[wxmann_91]

Anyone know if the Cuban government engaged their citizens about a potential landfall? I sure hope so.

Cuba is one of the most TC-ready nations in the world... all the coastal areas are likely already evacuated.

[Aric Dunn]

The eye on IR is contracting very very fast. likely do to the land friction.. that could be good.. if it contracts enough and stays offshore that could potentially cause another ERC for the time frame of florida landfall.

or it could just make it stronger ..

[jdjaguar]

The eye on IR is contracting very very fast. likely do to the land friction.. that could be good.. if it contracts enough and stays offshore that could potentially cause another ERC for the time frame of florida landfall.

or it could just make it stronger ..

So it's good, but could be bad? Jk

I have the greatest respect for your postings, Aric

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/John_Knaff/status/906298196439306240

[tolakram]

Could someone please post a saved recent Cuban radar loop? Thanks

[SunnyThoughts]

The eye on IR is contracting very very fast. likely do to the land friction.. that could be good.. if it contracts enough and stays offshore that could potentially cause another ERC for the time frame of florida landfall.

or it could just make it stronger ..

Heh, give us hope, then just snatch it away.

[Nimbus]

The eye on IR is contracting very very fast. likely do to the land friction.. that could be good.. if it contracts enough and stays offshore that could potentially cause another ERC for the time frame of florida landfall.

or it could just make it stronger ..

Too much land interaction deforming the eyewall(s) to wobble watch, I'll check the 6Z forecast point in the morning.

[HedwigTramp]

I've seen some discussion of people suggesting to drain a foot or so of water out of their pool to help prevent flooding from rains.

Have no idea where they got that from though.

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I am actually contemplating doing that (seemed obvious). This will be my first major storm whilst having an in-ground pool some 15 feet from my back doors, so I assumed it would make sense to backwash some water now to avoid overflow (even though I'm aware the paver-deck has a positive slope and drainage). Am I somehow mistaken?

There is really no advantage to draining water from your pool unless you have a good idea of rainfall (which you don't). I have a pool and just went thru Harvey. I would recommend that you use chlorine to shock the snot out of it before the deluge. If you lose power it will green up in a short period of time.
On the bright side: no need to fill the bathtub to flush the toilet.

[NDG]

well it needs to start turning back wnw to stay off shore. another couple hours of this and it will be onshore.

So far is doing what the 12z Euro forecasted for it to make landfall on those Cays in northern Central Cuban, then turn more WNW and ride along the coast with at least half of its circulation inland, it forecasted it to go completely offshore tomorrow night around 7PM-10PM.
It shows it be back over water for 14 hrs or so before making a final landfall near Everglades City, its pressure dropping 24 mb after entering the FL Straights.

[jdjaguar]

Fwiw the wind gradient is gearing up at jax beach.

Wife thought Irma was coming 2 days early

[KBBOCA]

OH MY - hot water having a big impact

 https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/906326534113427456




No wonder Irma has gone from this to this in just four hours. It's traversing the warmest waters of its entire lifetime right now.

[ConvergenceZone]

Like others said, landfall in Cuba will put a cap on strengthening. We will see if it gets some of that strength back once in goes back over water

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/906327576246923265