ATL: IRMA - Models

[xironman]

I honestly feel like analyzing synoptics on models is a lost art and instead the focus is on the output. How close am I to the eye, did it shift east or west, how much wind, etc without looking at all the players on the field to see why a model shows a different solution and how plausible it may or may not be. Maybe I’m just old school.

Lots of east coast winter storm enthusiasts basically only look at synoptics until the storm is 48 hrs out. They know the surface low is going to bounce around from run to run and drive them crazy, looking at the large scale pieces on the chessboard tells you whether it is a threat or not until then. I may have a different opinion than most but the GFS for the most part has been ok, people need to focus on it as a tool, not a forecast.

[tolakram]

Look at the euro performance through 120 hours. Also note how the NHC is beating the consensus regularly, especially at longer range.

[tarheelprogrammer]

If you go here http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx

Turn on model tracks for the tropics you can see it is already north of the ECMWF run. Quite a bit north already if those plots are accurate. Just pointing that out, and not saying the track overall is wrong. Just seems the storm is moving a little bit more north, but I could be wrong.

[Steve]

Interesting. How much more influence will it have in future runs...

Depends on how the GFS evolves it which will probably only be an academic point. That's the problem. I think the GFS is wrong from the start since it never hits Florida. So everything going forward is wrong. It will have the right idea of a SE Coast landfall on a NNW or N then NNW/NW heading. But it's likely too far north and too far east initially. If the EURO stays to S or SW FL, you can almost bank that the EC-UK alliance will be right with Irma over what the GFS says based on what it's done all along. Again, if it ends up right, cool. And good for SE FL. I don't trust it very much for Irma.

[USTropics]

I didn't believe it at first, but after running the numbers myself, the CMC in fact has out performed the GFS with IRMA at almost all forecast hours. In fact, the SHIPS has out performed the GFS beyond hour 72.

[Raebie]

I didn't believe it at first, but after running the numbers myself, the CMC in fact has out performed the GFS with IRMA at almost all forecast hours. In fact, the SHIPS has out performed the GFS beyond hour 72.

Good because I hate the GFS right now.

[Aric Dunn]

Look at the euro performance through 120 hours. Also note how the NHC is beating the consensus regularly, especially at longer range.

or how the CMC is doing better than the GFS by a good bit lol.. why I mentioned earlier I quit paying attention to the GFS after 3 days..

[Bocadude85]

Here is the 0z Canadian. Pretty much a landfall in S.Fla

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017090700&fh=6

[txwatcher91]

I honestly feel like analyzing synoptics on models is a lost art and instead the focus is on the output. How close am I to the eye, did it shift east or west, how much wind, etc without looking at all the players on the field to see why a model shows a different solution and how plausible it may or may not be. Maybe I’m just old school.

What does ukmet do with this trough that's different than gfs?

The free maps I have for the UK aren’t great, but from what I can tell the UK appears faster with Irma, which allows it to get west quicker before the ridging breaks down. It’s also a bit weaker with the NE trough which results in a slower pull N.

[brghteys1216]

Navgem pretty much follows the UKMET.

[txwatcher91]

I honestly feel like analyzing synoptics on models is a lost art and instead the focus is on the output. How close am I to the eye, did it shift east or west, how much wind, etc without looking at all the players on the field to see why a model shows a different solution and how plausible it may or may not be. Maybe I’m just old school.

Lots of east coast winter storm enthusiasts basically only look at synoptics until the storm is 48 hrs out. They know the surface low is going to bounce around from run to run and drive them crazy, looking at the large scale pieces on the chessboard tells you whether it is a threat or not until then. I may have a different opinion than most but the GFS for the most part has been ok, people need to focus on it as a tool, not a forecast.

Yes for winter storms quite a few look at them still but for hurricanes it seems to be a lost art sadly. That piece of energy in the NE and the Midwest energy are key to analyzing and seeing how various models handle them. It’s the difference between a FL direct landfall, grazing the coast or just offshore. I personally like to use the models exactly as a tool, understand their strengths and weaknesses, and then go from there. Euro tonight will be interesting.

[Bocadude85]

0z HMON with landfall in Broward County

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090700&fh=75&xpos=0&ypos=0

[MatthewsRevenge]

Not gonna stress this enough, when the models are sparring with each other, focus on NHC. I kinda stopped watching the model tracking because it's still full of errors. What makes it wild is that no one can fully predict where Irma can go from here. Right now, I think we should just focus on NHC updates for the most part.

[Aric Dunn]

Not gonna stress this enough, when the models are sparring with each other, focus on NHC. I kinda stopped watching the model tracking because it's still full of errors. What makes it wild is that no one can fully predict where Irma can go from here. Right now, I think we should just focus on NHC updates for the most part.

this is very normal for every system.... we are nowhere near able to rely on models fully.. barely 50 percent..

[AdamFirst]

HWRF has been running...rounds the corner at Andros Island, WNW toward South Dade...no clear sign of a sudden northward jog yet.

[Steve]

Not gonna stress this enough, when the models are sparring with each other, focus on NHC. I kinda stopped watching the model tracking because it's still full of errors. What makes it wild is that no one can fully predict where Irma can go from here. Right now, I think we should just focus on NHC updates for the most part.

Yeah, but come on. It's the model thread. You're here too.

I go with the NHC #1 even though the Euro is winning Irma. They're still the best and have the best explanations for everything that happens.

HWRF has a pretty solid motion and momentum heading toward SE FL. It's turning at 75, and low 900's. It smokes the Bahamas and curves just east of Miami by 81 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0


HMON nicks a quick hook through SE FL around 901mb, goes offshore and weakens as it heads into N GA.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS ensemble mean right through SE Florida so looks to have shifted west some.

[MWatkins]

Not gonna stress this enough, when the models are sparring with each other, focus on NHC. I kinda stopped watching the model tracking because it's still full of errors. What makes it wild is that no one can fully predict where Irma can go from here. Right now, I think we should just focus on NHC updates for the most part.

Yeah, but come on. It's the model thread. You're here too.

I go with the NHC #1 even though the Euro is winning Irma. They're still the best and have the best explanations for everything that happens.

HWRF has a pretty solid motion and momentum heading toward SE FL. It's turning at 75, and low 900's. It smokes the Bahamas and curves just east of Miami by 81 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0


HMON nicks a quick hook through SE FL around 901mb, goes offshore and weakens as it heads into N GA.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

That HMON track/intensity would be absolutely devastating for SE FL. I can't unsee it, especially now that we are closing in on the 3.5 day window.

Da*n you, Steve!

MW

[MWatkins]

00Z GFS ensemble mean right through SE Florida so looks to have shifted west some.

The good news keeps rolling in. Gator & Steve are officially off my holiday card list.

MW

[Steve]

HWRF following GFS op with the non-landfall in Florida and paralleling coast by 90 hours. This run should also destroy farther up the coast as a strong Cat 4 or 5. I still don't buy it which is 3 out of 3 current models I'm disagreeing with. However, it shows the danger of if there is a miss in this pattern, we would probably see massive destruction along the GA and SC Coasts. Simulated IR4 through 96:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=398

Edit to say Hey Mike. You know I've been a fan for a long time! Awesome to see the guest star appearance.