ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SapphireSea]

OK, can we all just let this go? We have recon going in, are in the middle of an ERC and it's getting tiresome weeding through crap bickering posts. And now you've made me add one.

Gotcha..he ha ...yeah, back to the task at hand.....I have kin folks in Ft. Lauderdale...they seem to know what they are doing...

Not going to lie here, and break out of my "professional" mold, but being in Fort Lauderdale myself and out by the water; the amount of hype from the media was a bit extreme when it looked like it could hook a bit more west than anticipated. Talking to neighbors and parents in Dade, the next Cat 5 monster heading 270 degrees from Andros island is not going to get the attention it may deserve. Already I see knocked over lawn chair pictures being made into memes about how much of a non event Matthew has been down here.

While the N of Florida, WPB, Vero, North face the real threat. Truthfully, additional perspective needs to be placed on storms like this and how to warn, because as of right now half the forecast area was over warned and we have yet to see what transpires near the predicted landfall swipe location; But back to sound meterology and observations over the years; The WEST side of a storm rapidly degenerates into a non-event over land. The Hurricane models also demonstrate this if you look at the graphics correctly that just 30 miles west of a center you go from hurricane force winds sustained to just below tropical storm strength. Are there exceptions to this? Certainly. That said I do hope that Matthew continues to miss forecast points by about 10-20 miles east and restrengthens his core just enough to pull in dangerous winds over water.

Here is to hoping that the loop also does happen and that Matthew also avoids GA and SC/NC. Thus far reliable models indicate this may happen, but have shifted to more dangerous positions. N Florida preps for a major need to have been complete, and GA, and SC monitor closely and have the ability to move those preps to completion if needed IMO.

[Airboy]

Is see "Gonzo" is flying to check the ridge, anyone with better knowledge than me that can draw any conslusions from the recon data about the ridge?

[blp]

So is it confirmed to be a double eyewall? I am seeing that outerwall on a NW heading versus the inner eye wall NNW.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

3:20pm EDT splash of sonde:
941mb, 39 knots of surface wind

[ronyan]

Matthew looks pretty unusual right now on IR.

[Frank P]

and the radar loops still look to be on its NW heading as far as I can tell... outer eye wall, if there is such a thing, is closing in on the FL coast... from what I can tell looking at radar, the inner eye looks pretty healthy and who ever get this portion of the eye wall is going to be devastated, only can hope this portion of the system stays off the coast..... it will all play out in the next 24 hours or so... sad to say, this has been an awesome storm to track... but this is going to probably end pretty ugly...

[ncweatherwizard]

that is one weak secondary wind max from the aircraft data

Isn't this expected at this point? The outer eyewall hasn't existed for very long yet.

The pressure gradient is still quite small (relative to what is observed in the inner eyewall) in the outer wall, so we'd expect the wind max to not stand out too much. We'd either need the pressure minimum to broaden near the center or the outer wall to contract inward so that it is more closely located with the steep pressure gradient.

Edit: Primary rainband -> outer wall based on aircraft reports

[gatorcane]

It certainly looks like it is taking more of the right (east) side of NHC cone. It could always wobble back west but I am feeling pretty good here in Palm Beach County. I doubt we lose power here in East Boca Raton. Perhaps the ridge is not quite as strong as the GFS and Euro thought.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Nate-Gillson]

Matthew looks pretty unusual right now on IR.

Didn't he have that look just before he made his first landfall in Haiti?

[Aric Dunn]

looks like the inner is starting to wobble around inside the outer one pretty good now.. expect large loops inside that thing..

[GCANE]

I dunno, that inner eyewall doesn't look to be getting weaker.

http://weather.graphics/mrms/florida/fl ... r_long.gif

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... %20loop%29

[dhweather]

Meanwhile, it appears that Freeport, Bahamas is going to take a direct hit from category 4 hurricane Matthew.

[Aric Dunn]

It certainly looks like it is taking more of the right (east) side of NHC cone. It could always wobble back west but I am feeling pretty good here in Palm Beach County.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

dont get caught up with the center.. the overall motion is still NW. its going to spinning around inside that new eyewall pretty wildly

[ronyan]

If that inner eyewall persists it may be quite difficult to forecast landfall. As if that wasn't already enough of a challenge.

[NDG]

That's a nice jog NNW during the past couple of hours.

[Airboy]

From recon:

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles)

[dukeblue219]

New Vortex message is out... 936mb pressure, closed concentric eye. Only listed 75kt surface wind inbound. (No, that doesn't mean the storm is weakening).

[BucMan2]

RonJon- when you say the Tropical Storm winds extend out 160 miles from the center, is that in all quadrants?

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 19:41Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 30
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 19:17:46Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°50'N 78°22'W (25.8333N 78.3667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 83 statute miles (134 km) to the NW (311°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,572m (8,438ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 75kts (~ 86.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SSW (205°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 302° at 91kts (From the WNW at ~ 104.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SSW (207°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 936mb (27.64 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 121kts (~ 139.2mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (41°) from the flight level center at 19:20:24Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the NE (37°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 15° at 7kts (From the NNE at 8mph)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Another sonde. The vortex says 936mb though.

3:21pm EDT splash of sonde:
938mb, 7 knots of surface wind