TC Bertha

[Tampa_God]

I don't know guys, I see the trough off the eastern coast falling apart before Bertha gets there. Ofcourse, you have the weakening Bermuda High that I can see happening, but the curve that everyone is forecasting looks less likely to me. We'll just wait and see I guess.

[KWT]

The trough coming off the USA is only a back-up if the storm remains weak tampa-god, the main driver of the models northward movement is the weakness and upper low as mentioned in the snippet cycloneye posted up. Still will the weakness be enough thats the main question, if it gets stronger then it will get the job done but if it stays or weakens then who knows!

[Tampa_God]

The trough coming off the USA is only a back-up if the storm remains weak tampa-god, the main driver of the models northward movement is the weakness and upper low as mentioned in the snippet cycloneye posted up. Still will the weakness be enough thats the main question, if it gets stronger then it will get the job done but if it stays or weakens then who knows!

Okay I see that, but I forgot to add in that I don't really see Bertha gaining much strength. It will most likely get to 50 mph and than weaken after it hits the cold waters this weekend, and than stay around 50 mph until it reaches 70 W.

[KWT]

Who knows Tampa-god, the models are trending further west which doesn't surprise me too much given they do tend to have a poleward bias from my past experience of these systems.

In terms of SST's, interestingly they are already a good deal below 26C (SHIPS started with SST's of 25.5C at 06z guidence) and so aren't going to get much lower then what they are now, esp if it stays on its current track, though the little drop that will occur will probably enough to stall any further development past 12-24hrs.

I think right now its a little better organised though the NHC are going to hold at 35kts for now which makes sense I suppose.

[Derek Ortt]

The trough coming off the USA is only a back-up if the storm remains weak tampa-god, the main driver of the models northward movement is the weakness and upper low as mentioned in the snippet cycloneye posted up. Still will the weakness be enough thats the main question, if it gets stronger then it will get the job done but if it stays or weakens then who knows!

Okay I see that, but I forgot to add in that I don't really see Bertha gaining much strength. It will most likely get to 50 mph and than weaken after it hits the cold waters this weekend, and than stay around 50 mph until it reaches 70 W.

Bertha is already over sub 26C waters according to SHIPS

[Gustywind]

I completely agree that the one line statements are useless and border on "trolling".

A one line statement in itself isn't trolling. It's not a good post, but it's not really trolling. Saying that you want a storm to hit a major population centre as a Cat 5 would be trolling.


The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological, economic or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose

As for Bertha, I stand by my earlier post that it could become a marginal hurricane, of course anything can happen.

Cycloneye, let's take it easy, please

[Aric Dunn]

nice pass on this one... convection not so deep but structure is great..

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 JUL 2008 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 13:31:35 N Lon : 25:26:31 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.0 3.2 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -39.4C Cloud Region Temp : -40.6C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

03/1745 UTC 13.3N 24.9W T2.5/2.5 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[KWT]

Hmm yeah I agree Aric its got a decent enough strcuture, convection isn't all that deep I agree but under sub 26C SST's that is to be expected and if anything convection may become even a little more shallow as it moves into temps in the lower 25's.

[CrazyC83]

I would guess the intensity at this point is 40 kt - a blend of the T2.0 and T2.5 estimates.

[Aric Dunn]

another good pass .. convection a little deeper .. but great stucture.. and the center at about 13.5n 26.5w

[Aric Dunn]

thats barely any north movement... mostly west ..

[KWT]

I agree Crazy I think thats about right looking at it currently, though I do see the NHC are holding at 35kts at least for this forecast cycle.

[HURAKAN]

Nice look! Bertha is showing off.

[KWT]

Hmm thats pulling a good structure, I think the 3.0 estimate from one of the agencies is quite justified looking at that vis.image there, got some good banding as well I note.

[wxman57]

Either way, Bertha is pretty much doomed from the start.

It turns into the weakness, shear and cold waters quickly kill it off. It misses the weakness and runs head on into Mr. TUTT, need I say more?

Spot on. Can't believe this storm will make it past 60W. I don't know why we're having the fish definition argument.

Interesting...yesterday the concensus was for Bertha to turn @ 45W..

I think you're confusing the start of a turn with a farthest west the storm may get. The turn begins between 30-35W. TCs don't make sharp right-hand turns, they're gradual turns. No one said this system would track westward to 45W then take a sharp right turn, not passing 45W.

[KWT]

To be fair though wxman57 some the models did have the furtherest point around 45W, the GFS and the GFDL being the main culprits but the ECM also did have a run or two where about 45W was the furtherest west it got. The models are now keeping the WNW track alot longer and indeed within 120hrs on alot of the models there isn't really a hint of the NW track that was so dominant at one point on the models at 45W.

[dixiebreeze]

Very convective wave right behind Bertha:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

(sorry if this was already posted)

[KWT]

Whilst probably off topic dixie I do remember the GFS progging a strong wave coming right beyond what is now Bertha.