ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Nhc not biting on the sharp curve to the north....no mention of that probably out of the respect of the ecmwf

They will turn it sharply right tomorrow. The turn occurs just at the 5 day point from today. Looks destined for Haiti or the DR, then may merge with the big storm over New England next weekend.

Yeah that is the one part of the equation that looks pretty certain at this point, that at some point in the 3-5 day range the Hurricane will be picked up by the trough. Unfortunately Tomas maybe the most disastrous storm in 2010 with the potential for retirement.

Tomas (should) take a very sharp right turn, probably into Haiti.

[Vortmax1]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tomas (should) take a very sharp right turn, probably into Haiti.

No...that is most likely not going to happen!

[neospaceblue]

What's your reasoning for that?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


My reasoning is that it is too early in the season for a super strong front like this to happen!

It is too early and it won't happen.
The ECMWF is right!

Too early? It's October 31st.

[wxman57]

I don't buy the European solution because it only develops Tomas to a TD by 5 days. Look at the trof it develops - the 540 thickness line all the way down to northern Florida next Wed/Thu. Cold front all the way to eastern Cuba, and still it doesn't move Tomas. But because it doesn't see Tomas as a big storm, it keeps it trapped in the Caribbean. The strong SW upper-level winds should pick Tomas up and turn it sharply northward by Thursday, because Tomas will be a major hurricane, not a TD.

[Vortmax1]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Too early? It's October 31st.


LMAO!

Way too early for us in south Florida!

[FireRat]

The place most at risk from November hurricanes is Cuba. This one may have its eyes on Cuba. I sure hope it misses Haiti.

[Vortmax1]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't buy the European solution because it only develops Tomas to a TD by 5 days. Look at the trof it develops - the 540 thickness line all the way down to northern Florida next Wed/Thu. But because it doesn't see Tomas as a big storm,it keeps it trapped in the Caribbean. The strong SW upper-level winds should pick Tomas up and turn it sharply northward by Thursday, because Tomas will be a major hurricane, not a TD.

I know what you're saying Wxman...but a large part of the ECM forecast is correct...and you know that as well as I do!

[ozonepete]

I don't buy the European solution because it only develops Tomas to a TD by 5 days. Look at the trof it develops - the 540 thickness line all the way down to northern Florida next Wed/Thu. But because it doesn't see Tomas as a big storm,it keeps it trapped in the Caribbean. The strong SW upper-level winds should pick Tomas up and turn it sharply northward by Thursday, because Tomas will be a major hurricane, not a TD.

You will be right as usual. This will never get west of Haiti.

[ozonepete]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Too early? It's October 31st.


LMAO!

Way too early for us in south Florida!

South Florida gets late October and November hurricanes (with very few exceptions) from systems that develop in the northwestern Caribbean and then move north and northeast. An unusual system like this, a Cape Verde type that comes from the east, has almost no chance of reaching Florida. Although I wouldn't be surprised if the western side of it swipes eastern Florida.

[Vortmax1]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

South Florida gets late October and November hurricanes (with very few exceptions) from systems that develop in the northwestern Caribbean and then move north and northeast. An unusual system like this, a Cape Verde type that comes from the east, has almost no chance of reaching Florida. Although I wouldn't be surprised if the western side of it swipes eastern Florida.

OK...you are in New York...and you want to preach to me about tropical weather?

ROFLMAO!

[Battlebrick]

Recon going out now... how long will it take to get there?

[Evil Jeremy]

OK...you are in New York...and you want to preach to me about tropical weather?

Grow up vortmax. Ozonepete is very knowledgeable about what he is talking about. You could live in Alaska and be an expert on the tropics. Wake up and realize that if all the mets and models (save for one) are saying a recurve is likely to happen........ it means a recurve is likely to happen.

[Recurve]

Based on everything WXman is seeing, unless something radical changes, Tomas will be sucked right up out of the Caribbean with a 90degree turn and won't get to Cuba. That's my amateur forecast based on what I think is excellent analysis by the experts.

HOWEVER...all disclaimers apply. My posts are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of ME and are backed by cursory glances and slight understanding of complex meteorological data. I am NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. Where I'm pretty sure the turn will be showing up soon.

[FireRat]

Words of advice guys, we can't play with this one. It is an unprecedented storm that will teach us many lessons. We'll have to take Tomas day by day, witnessing its amazing trek across the Caribbean in early NOVEMBER.

Yes there are more likely solutions than others, I myself am going for the solution that Tomas turns north to hit either Cuba or Haiti, hopefully passing in between both island nations. Yet it is hard to say with such a big system and the unusual type of storm for this time of year......a Cape Verde.

Everyone from Central America to Cuba and Florida over to Haiti, the DR and even Puerto Rico should monitor the system closely during the upcoming days and not ignore it. One small change in the timing of the big players, the trough or Tomas itself could lead to huge differences. It's time to observe this potentially historic event.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Recurve]

BTW Votmax, that CIMS storm-centered view you posted is TOO cool. It's great to see the cyclone evolve without it moving. Like to get that link.

[TimeZone]

Ugh, I really, really hope this thing avoids Haiti as it looks like it could be a cat 3 or 4....That would just be plain brutal.

[hurricaneCW]

Given that over a million people in Haiti still live in tents and with the whole Cholera outbreak, a major hurricane hit on Haiti, would be catastrophic. Actually, even a tropical storm or a Cat 1 could end up disastrous due to the heavy rainfall and topographic effect it would cause.

[ozonepete]

OK...you are in New York...and you want to preach to me about tropical weather?

Grow up vortmax. Ozonepete is very knowledgeable about what he is talking about. You could live in Alaska and be an expert on the tropics. Wake up and realize that if all the mets and models (save for one) are saying a recurve is likely to happen........ it means a recurve is likely to happen.

Thanks, Jeremy. I was just pointing out the climatology. Yes, I live in New york, but I've been following tropical weather for 40 years, and I have a certification in meteorology/weather forecasting from Penn State. I didn't know your knowledge of weather depended on where you came from, vortmax.

[Ivanhater]

Let's move on. Staff has taken care of the situation.

[ozonepete]

Let's move on. Staff has taken care of the situation.

Thank you , Michael. I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of learning on this one. Very unusual from the get-go.