Texas Winter 2020-2021

[TXWeatherMan]

I’m in southeast TX so seeing everyone wishcast this to move north is getting on my nerves a little bit lol.

[Ralph's Weather]

Delkus and Finfrock haven't even thought about bringing it up yet here in DFW. I guess when they do this far out they get the finger wag by the twitter warriors.

Fox4 Evan Andrews is the only local to even mention a wintry mix that I've seen. It's been in his forecast for a couple days now including this morning. Whenever this sucker comes ashore I would think the local outlooks will change.

In E TX most forecasts have started including snow today.

[Ntxw]

Already seeing some subtle changes at 500mb vorticity on the Euro. It's more amped and tilted so I'm guessing we'll see this run nudge north. Also big trend on the guidance this morning is good flow from energy to our Southwest/Northern Mexico which means good moisture feed from the Pacific.

Also if you compare to several runs ago when the trends were going in the wrong direction, the kicker system in the Pacific was out of the picture but is now coming down with better integrity that might provide the kick.

[Cpv17]

I’m in southeast TX so seeing everyone wishcast this to move north is getting on my nerves a little bit lol.

Lol yep! I’m right there with ya, but as long as someone in Texas sees measurable snow and I get some decent rain from it then I’ll be okay with it. Kind of tired of hearing about the DFW folk talk about their snow drought and I’m sure they’re tired of talking about it too lol. I would be happy for them if they finally got their snow.

[Texas Snow]

Hello Euro My Old Friend! Come north towards me again...

[Ntxw]

Cash out the Euro. Man those 850mb temps are beautiful.

[Brent]

Where do I sign up let's end this stupid snowless streak already

[Ntxw]

Where do I sign up let's end this stupid snowless streak already

https://i.ibb.co/QXhdWvL/sn10-acc-us-sc-18.png

Feb 10-12, 2010.

[Haris]

Marry me euro

[Ntxw]

System goes full negative tilt over the Arklatex. Our friend Orangeblood told us not long ago this has the possibility a bigger hit and the euro is how it could be done. You want to stay on the north and west side of the path and hope your 850s remain cold.

The kicking vorticity incoming from the Pac NW is the key here imo for something huge.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS-P is a big Oklahoma snowstorm. It looks like the 18z Euro EPS has more members with a snowstorm centered over N. TX vs. 12z. This is going to be a wild ride with multiple s/w crashing in under the block. We probably won't truly start to pin things down until the 1st one is clearing out (Wed/Thur) and the middle kicker is resolved.

Thursday evening should start to pin things down as our system is just coming onshore?

From a couple of days ago but a reminder to buckle up. Probably still another 24hrs before things start locking in.

But Wow

I knew this would be a big hit on the 12z Euro when those beautiful 500mb maps started coming in!

[Ntxw]

18z GFS-P is a big Oklahoma snowstorm. It looks like the 18z Euro EPS has more members with a snowstorm centered over N. TX vs. 12z. This is going to be a wild ride with multiple s/w crashing in under the block. We probably won't truly start to pin things down until the 1st one is clearing out (Wed/Thur) and the middle kicker is resolved.

Thursday evening should start to pin things down as our system is just coming onshore?

https://i.ibb.co/k4q1Y76/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-namer-5.png

From a couple of days ago but a reminder to buckle up. Probably still another 24hrs before things start locking in.

But Wow

I knew this would be a big hit on the 12z Euro when those beautiful 500mb maps started coming in!

You were on it! We are actually on the same kind of point where we were with the New Year's eve storm. Except we have more cold air in place this time, back then we were trending away from good upper temps. We were watching if the atmosphere would cool with the ULL but that happened mostly to our west and northwest. This time track kind of close but much better set up ahead of time so there is room for error.

[amawea]

Saw WUnderground app has snow for Sunday night for me. Today's the day I am going to start really studying this system. By tomorrow I believe we will have a good idea of what this system is going to do. My initial guess is the bullseye will be north of I-20 though.

Fixed it for you Ralph

Ralph's Weather"]Saw WUnderground app has snow for Sunday night for me. Today's the day I am going to start really studying this system. By Saturday I believe we will have a good idea of what this system is going to do. My initial guess is the bullseye will be north of I-20 though

[Brent]

Marry me euro

Ikr that would make almost everyone happy I think

[Haris]

I’m nervous though. What if the system turns negative over Texas rather than Arkansas and brings snow back to west Texas again? It’s still a ways out.

[rwfromkansas]

Hey, both DFW and Austin would get some snow with the Euro. Lock it in. While I would like a bigger total, beggers can't be choosers. I would get about 3 inches, which is pretty good for seeing nothing. I feel like a kid again with all the storms to track. It has been a decade since I have been able to track this many winter storms when I lived up north a few states (and we had drought years up there too). Hurricanes are something I follow when they are the big ones, but otherwise, I am here for winter weather or severe weather.

[Ntxw]

I’m nervous though. What if the system turns negative over Texas rather than Arkansas and brings snow back to west Texas again? It’s still a ways out.

We are starting out much colder than last time. We have room to give. We just don't want it to cut too deep into Mexico or something and sit there.

[orangeblood]

18z GFS-P is a big Oklahoma snowstorm. It looks like the 18z Euro EPS has more members with a snowstorm centered over N. TX vs. 12z. This is going to be a wild ride with multiple s/w crashing in under the block. We probably won't truly start to pin things down until the 1st one is clearing out (Wed/Thur) and the middle kicker is resolved.

Thursday evening should start to pin things down as our system is just coming onshore?

https://i.ibb.co/k4q1Y76/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-namer-5.png

From a couple of days ago but a reminder to buckle up. Probably still another 24hrs before things start locking in.

But Wow

I knew this would be a big hit on the 12z Euro when those beautiful 500mb maps started coming in!

Wow is right!!! Euro ENS were hinting at this potential, That 2nd wave decided to kick out to the southeast allowing the 3rd wave to dig in under very little resistance. Nice to see Euro deterministic, at this range, lead the charge...tough to beat when it goes this direction inside 120 hrs. Lets see if its Ensemble members fall in line.....

[bubba hotep]

I’m nervous though. What if the system turns negative over Texas rather than Arkansas and brings snow back to west Texas again? It’s still a ways out.

We are starting out much colder than last time. We have room to give. We just don't want it to cut too deep into Mexico or something and sit there.

Also, more blocking over the top than our last threat and no monster SE ridge like last time, so I think we are narrowing our track options.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro Ensemble looks good. Trended snowier across the northern half of the state.