ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xtyphooncyclonex]

928 mb extrapolated. Guess Jova will be beat after all (at least officially) and Lee's not even done yet.

[IcyTundra]

With that data, I would set the intensity at 135 kt. I'd want to see the flight-level winds a bit higher to go with a category 5 intensity. We'll see what the NHC says. I'd expect an update or special advisory soon.

8PM EST intermediate advisory is coming up here soon we will see what they go with.

[psyclone]

Ho-LEE-crap that is insane. What a remarkable storm to watch. I'm really curious as to how strong this storm can get. What an extraordinary rate of intensification

[TorSkk]

135 kt /928 mb probably a good estimate for now. Maybe an update from NHC soon?

[kronotsky]

With that data, I would set the intensity at 135 kt. I'd want to see the flight-level winds a bit higher to go with a category 5 intensity. We'll see what the NHC says. I'd expect an update or special advisory soon.

Might get a higher FL wind in the next data set; at least 135 knots either way.

[Beef Stew]

Insanity- thats what today's explosive RI has been. Expecting 135kts/928mb if there's an intermediate update- but more likely the NHC will hold off until they are confident in category 5. But I don't think Lee is slowing down soon...

[hiflyer]

The GIV has changed direction and is moving into the area upstream from Lee at 43,000 feet….roughly around where models had been suggesting ‘the turn’ might happen.


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[kronotsky]

I think a 20+ knot increase since the last advisory is probably enough for an intermediate update, and then data from a second or possibly third pass can go in the 11 pm.

If we give Lee credit for 983 mb at the 5 am advisory, that's 3 mb/hour for 15 hours. Eyewall lightning and microwave suggests there's more strengthening coming...

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde: 936 mb, uncertain winds.

There is a ridge to the north and high background pressures so winds will be stronger than expected for that pressure (936 usually means about 125 kt).

[aspen]

Dropsonde: 936 mb, uncertain winds.

There is a ridge to the north and high background pressures so winds will be stronger than expected for that pressure (936 usually means about 125 kt).

Winds at 934mb are 34 kt so maybe the drop was something like 936/25 or 936/30, which would support 930-932 mbar, right?

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1699922199988068707

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde: 936 mb, uncertain winds.

There is a ridge to the north and high background pressures so winds will be stronger than expected for that pressure (936 usually means about 125 kt).

Winds at 934mb are 34 kt so maybe the drop was something like 936/25 or 936/30, which would support 930-932 mbar, right?

That would support about 933 mb at the surface.

[ThunderForce]

The GIV has changed direction and is moving into the area upstream from Lee at 43,000 feet….roughly around where models had been suggesting ‘the turn’ might happen.


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GIV? What does this mean?

[kronotsky]

The GIV has changed direction and is moving into the area upstream from Lee at 43,000 feet….roughly around where models had been suggesting ‘the turn’ might happen.


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GIV? What does this mean?

Short hand for https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulfstream_IV -- it's the plane that's collecting data in Lee's path.

[zzzh]

Why is recon data not updating?

[chaser1]

Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change
made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving
west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge
for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by
early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep
the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands.
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.

They don’t even want to get involved in the turn debate lol

Well, there you go. So we can please stop with the Out to sea debate?

Yeah, what is that about? Could they be thinking a prolonged period of slow movement westward due to the large size not being influenced by the trough? Or perhaps the models show an influence of Margot but how can a smaller storm influence a larger one? Hummm…

Yep, I found that last bit regarding motion beyond 5 days.... almost ominous but at minimum quite a bit nebulous.

[MarioProtVI]

Aaaand recon is having transmission issues. Worst timing

[Iceresistance]

Why is recon data not updating?

I don't know, I hope it updates soon

[TallyTracker]

Dropsonde: 936 mb, uncertain winds.

There is a ridge to the north and high background pressures so winds will be stronger than expected for that pressure (936 usually means about 125 kt).

Winds at 934mb are 34 kt so maybe the drop was something like 936/25 or 936/30, which would support 930-932 mbar, right?

That would support about 933 mb at the surface.

That would follow the trend of the NOAA planes being about 4-5 MB too low on the extrapolations. Still 20 MB lower than the 5 pm advisory…

[CrazyC83]

Why is recon data not updating?

Perhaps computer issues or checking in the plane to make sure that turbulence didn't damage anything.