Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#881 Postby opera ghost » Wed Sep 05, 2007 2:46 pm

emeraldislencguy wrote:live on emerald isle--what are the chances of us getting hurricane force winds out of this system--I know that may be difficult to answer but have a family member in his 90's and we need to begin thinking about his plans--any help or ideas from the pr mets about how strong it could get here would be appreciated.


Same standard reply as always.

Have all basic preparations out of the way at the season start, and keep your eyes on the system. When/if a system is forecast by NCH, etc in the 5 day cone- double check food stocks, evacuation routes, medications, etc and know your plan in advance. When/if your area enters the 3 day cone- consider the size of the expected storm and the local conditions and decide at what point (if any) you plan to evacuate. Pack a suitcase of clothes and critical papers and move your box of supplies within easy reach even if you do not plan on evacuating. then you wait and put plans into action when they become necessary.

It's almost never necessary to evacuate more than 4 days in advance unless you had plans taking you out of the area anyways.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#882 Postby SCHawkFan » Wed Sep 05, 2007 2:49 pm

MBismyPlayground wrote:Bud, you talking about Ed P.????
LOLOL Yea they always lessen the threat just to not scare tourists away.....

That is why I don't listen to them... read it here instead.


Ed P has actually proven very solid when discussing tropical weather. I have never heard him over hype or undersell a system. I cannot speak for other local mets, but there is no need to speak poorly of Ed in these forums.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#883 Postby cpdaman » Wed Sep 05, 2007 2:52 pm

it appears to me this sytsem is moving a bit faster east than earlier anticipated

it has covered about 1.4 degrees longitude in 7 hours from about 71.6 to about 70.2

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

what is that about 85 miles in 7 hours i.e 12 miles an hour

it's at least moving at 10 miles an hour to the ene

it could get to about 67 west by tomorrow, right?
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#884 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Sep 05, 2007 2:54 pm

cpdaman wrote:it appears to me this sytsem is moving a bit faster east than earlier anticipated

it has covered about 1.4 degrees longitude in 7 hours from about 71.7 to about 70.2

what is that about 85 miles in 7 hours i.e 12 miles an hour

it at least moving at 10 miles an hour to the ene

it could get to about 67 west by tomorrow, right?


Yea i think its up for question whether this thing comes back all the way to the coast.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#885 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Sep 05, 2007 2:57 pm

I don't think we will see a upgrade intill tomarrow at 11am est. For one there is no vortex message,,,In two that is when the system should start coming together.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#886 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:01 pm

As Mike Watkins has said in the past,good debates occur in the NHC office and right now that is what may be happening.Upgrade or no upgrade.
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#887 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:04 pm

:uarrow: We should tap on those debates!!! Probably Bush is hearing them with the Patriot Act!!! :uarrow:
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#888 Postby MWatkins » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:05 pm

It probably won't make it that much further east. Water vapor imagery shows the CONUS ridge starting to build westward ..and the trough to the northeast is moving out of the way.

Additionally...the upper low shearing the system now is going to drop to the SW...

This will initially stall the system...then start it back to the west in another 12 to 24 hours as it pinwheels around the low....and starts to feel building heights to the north.

Positioning of the ULL is going to be critical for the next couple of days. If it gets far enough away from 99L it could vent the upper flow to the SW. Throw in ridging to the north and you get two outflow channels.

If it stays close to 99L....it could significantly inhibit development.

MW
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#889 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:08 pm

Latest view at the models....

Image
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#890 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:12 pm

In my opinion the upgrade part is really irrelavant right now.
It is either going to develop or not. It may or may not happen until
later tonight or tomorrow. We are not talking about a system that is 150 miles off the coast here now so what is the rush to upgrade? As matter of fact the system is moving in the opposit direction of the East coast right now. Yes I know it's predicted to move back toward west eventually. We shall see.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#891 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:As Mike Watkins has said in the past,good debates occur in the NHC office and right now that is what may be happening.Upgrade or no upgrade.


They should be coming to a decision as I write this. But like it has been mentioned before, there's no hurry with this system.
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#892 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:16 pm

I just got home, so I haven't seen most of the HDOBs. Just from visible, it doesn't look fully tropical. Maybe STD 8/STS Gabby?
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#893 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:18 pm

It appears to have stalled on latest satellite loops.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#894 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:It appears to have stalled on latest satellite loops.


It's just looking around because something is making a buzz inside of it!!! (RECON!!)
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Re:

#895 Postby cpdaman » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:24 pm

MWatkins wrote:
Additionally...the upper low shearing the system now is going to drop to the SW...

This will initially stall the system...then start it back to the west in another 12 to 24 hours as it pinwheels around the low....and starts to feel building heights to the north.

Positioning of the ULL is going to be critical for the next couple of days. If it gets far enough away from 99L it could vent the upper flow to the SW. Throw in ridging to the north and you get two outflow channels.

If it stays close to 99L....it could significantly inhibit development.

MW


muchas gracias i was wondering/waiting for someone to comment on the ULL

these things are sneaky and often not picked up well. MW (sorry to put you on the spot) but, do you have enough info to venture a guess wether it will inhibit developement for awhile .
Last edited by cpdaman on Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#896 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:27 pm

What's the URL to the NRL Monterey Web Site? I seem to have bookmarked an inactive server

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

It still shows invests 94 and 95. What's the new URL, pls?
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#897 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:28 pm

wxman57 wrote:What's the URL to the NRL Monterey Web Site? I seem to have bookmarked an inactive server

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

It still shows invests 94 and 95. What's the new URL, pls?


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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#898 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:29 pm

>>Latest view at the models....

Looks quite a bit like things did with the Fitow coming up on Japan. If anything, it probably runs up a little further north before curving out to sea if the teleconnection is there.

Steve
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#899 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:What's the URL to the NRL Monterey Web Site? I seem to have bookmarked an inactive server

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

It still shows invests 94 and 95. What's the new URL, pls?


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


Thanks, I just found it in an old bookmarks list. Just wanted to see if it still said 99L Invest - it does. Maybe NHC isn't going to upgrade it yet?
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#900 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:30 pm

Steve wrote:>>Latest view at the models....

Looks quite a bit like things did with the Fitow coming up on Japan. If anything, it probably runs up a little further north before curving out to sea if the teleconnection is there.

Steve


That's what JB was saying this morning. Similar pattern.
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