ATL: IRMA - Models

[HurricaneBelle]

11 AM NHC forecast track seems to be slightly further east than 5 AM.

Yeah, I noticed the 34-kt (TS) wind probability for Tampa dropped from 52% to 46% which is consistent with a slightly more east solution.

[Ken711]

It's there. You might need to refresh or something.

Thanks tried that still not showing. Even closed browser and re-booted.

[stormreader]

FWIW, Eric Webb is mentioning about how GFS is showing the east outlier because of a slow down in the trough.

Does that mean it will continue to trend east in successive runs?

It means that it might go east than forecasted.
It's based off of the last runs.

We'll see if it changes at 12z.

This is what he has to say about the Euro

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/905653419247001603




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/905655953541873664




I think he's known to favor the GFS more, can anyone else chime in on this?

The Euro is our strongest model. I don't know of anyone who really questions that. NHC track almost invariably gives more weight to the Euro. Euro after one minor shift east, has been totally consistent in last three runs with landfall in S Fl. Coming into the 72 hr window now. Don't expect big shifts. GFS has been biased to the right for most of this storm. IMO any shifts remaining will be minimal and the odds might favor a slight shift west. Watch Euro upcoming run. We're very close now.

[Steve]

It's there. You might need to refresh or something.

Thanks tried that still not showing. Even closed browser and re-booted.

Try this link. If it still comes up with 06, something's not updating in transmission to you.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[BucMan2]

Gator-

How reliable is the Nam and how much credence does the NHC give it? It looks like it is actually over SW FL or the middle of the tip?
Your thoughts?

Craig

[gtalum]

11 AM NHC forecast track seems to be slightly further east than 5 AM.

Yeah, I noticed the 34-kt (TS) wind probability for Tampa dropped from 52% to 46% which is consistent with a slightly more east solution.

The center of the new track looks to landfall at Pompano Beach and exit at Port St. Lucy.

[txwatcher91]

Gator-

How reliable is the Nam and how much credence does the NHC give it? It looks like it is actually over SW FL or the middle of the tip?
Your thoughts?

Craig

NAM is not a good model for TC track, it is primarily used for synoptics which is where it does better. It is interesting to see it made a rather large change which may indicate the globals following shortly, we will see.

[miamijaaz]

11 AM NHC forecast track seems to be slightly further east than 5 AM.

It's about 7 miles further to the east at around 72 hours than the 5 am forecast. Inconsequential at 3 days out.

[Ken711]

It's there. You might need to refresh or something.

Thanks tried that still not showing. Even closed browser and re-booted.

Try this link. If it still comes up with 06, something's not updating in transmission to you.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

Thanks Steve! That worked.

[Kingslayer1254]

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... olor=black

Got this from the discussions page... Interesting map. Speed up the map for best viewing

[WeatherLovingDoc]

12 Z GFS UP:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017090712&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=151

[AutoPenalti]

GFS 12z initialized.

[chris_fit]

Here's a model summary before the 12Z start rolling. They are in no particular order.

[tolakram]

South of previous run.

[RL3AO]

South of previous run.

[https://i.imgur.com/RrBHtio.gif[/img]

Almost like it's had an ESE bias for days...

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Unfortunately the GFS is coming in even more south at hour 36 than 06Z

[tolakram]

I have a meeting at the most inopportune time so won't be posting for a while.

[Steve]

GFS 12Z is SSE of prior run and around 924mb.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=42

Deepens about 18 mbs and is SSE of 06Z at 909mb at 48 hours. Looks like Saturday early AM will be intensifying per GFS.

[tolakram]