ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Bgator]

Looking at surface obs it does look to be in between key west and the middle keys.

[GreenSky]

[quote=\\\"wxman57\\\"]The center appears to be to the SE side of that convective burst. You can identify it clearly on the image below. Key west has a 5kt NNW wind and 998.1mb pressure. It\\\'s just to the east of the island. The center of the convective burst is about 40 miles to the NNW of the center. Oh, and I see no evidence of an eye. The convective burst isn\\\'t the center.

[/quote]

Oh, so I guess Fay will not become a hurricane...just remain a strong tropical storm at the most, right WxMan57?

[DESTRUCTION5]

I say its stalled and got a blank stare..LOL Then i read the last 2 pages..and see its stalled...Nice!

[wxman57]

Oh, so I guess Fay will not become a hurricane...just remain a strong tropical storm at the most, right WxMan57?

I still have 75 mph at landfall in my forecast - just in case. But the pressure seems steady now, and the convective burst is not over the center. Doesn't have a lot of time left to strengthen.

[NEXRAD]

Some additional storm reports from NWSFO Key West...

3:31PM, Cudjoe Key - 54 mph gust, Public
4:09PM, Marathon - 67 mph gust, C-MAN
4:19PM, 2NW Long Key - 52 mph gust, C-MAN
4:49PM, 8mi SSE Key Largo - 54 mph gust, C-MAN
4:49PM, Long Key - 56 mph gust, Public

- Jay

[CronkPSU]

the visible loop makes it seems like it is still moving north-northwest

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

You can't see the center on visible imagery. Don't assume it's beneath that blob of convection. See my previous post. Use radar to find the center. Looking at Key West radar, the center appears to be moving to the ENE or NE the past 2 hours. Probably just wobbling around.

i have been but that is what is driving me crazy...

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=out&num=6&delay=15&scale=0.296&noclutter=0&ID=BYX&type=N0R&lat=24.60408020&lon=-81.62238312&label=Key%20West,%20FL&showstorms=0&map.x=403&map.y=246&centerx=379&centery=300&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

[chris_fit]

Per the Key West Radar.....

Looks like Key west is about to get into the "eye-wall" again....and not from the other end, south, but from the western eye-wall! What the heck???

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Just because the center isn't under the convection does not mean its not strengthening, the circulation is still under the convection but I do agree with wxman57 radar has made it perfectly clear the center is on the SE side very close to Key west. Also can't really miss that NE motion lately but may just be the system organising itself and wobbling who knows!

[RL3AO]

Really looking bad on radar now.

[cpdaman]

weird angle on the storms moving in just south of miami

seems like fay could just spin and be a little tornado maker on the se coast of florida (granted small weak one's) but enough to get your attention every hour with that red screen going across

windiest weather so far in boca by beach right now

[Sanibel]

That 'ribbed' outlfow over the CDO is a sign of strengthening.

[GreenSky]

[quote=\\\"wxman57\\\"][quote=\\\"GreenSky\\\"]
Oh, so I guess Fay will not become a hurricane...just remain a strong tropical storm at the most, right WxMan57?[/quote]

I still have 75 mph at landfall in my forecast - just in case. But the pressure seems steady now, and the convective burst is not over the center. Doesn\\\'t have a lot of time left to strengthen.[/quote]

What do you mean by \\\"just in case\\\"?

Either you believe Fay will become a hurricane or you believe that it will remain a tropical storm?

So take your pick. What say you?

[Evil Jeremy]

[quote=\\\"wxman57\\\"][quote=\\\"GreenSky\\\"]
Oh, so I guess Fay will not become a hurricane...just remain a strong tropical storm at the most, right WxMan57?

I still have 75 mph at landfall in my forecast - just in case. But the pressure seems steady now, and the convective burst is not over the center. Doesn\\\'t have a lot of time left to strengthen.[/quote]

What do you mean by \\\"just in case\\\"?

Either you believe Fay will become a hurricane or you believe that it will remain a tropical storm?

So take your pick. What say you?[/quote]

Dude, its not that easy. The tropics are never easy.

[KWT]

wxman57 do you think this is going to swing NNE/NE from now, it sure looks interesting that the center has been moving that way at least according to the radar, recon will be interesting to see in terms of where it places the center as well.

[CronkPSU]

Really looking bad on radar now.

i agree, losing not gaining convection on the eastern edge...dry air?

[MGC]

While in the eye of Fay, the pressure in Key West has been slowly dropping. The pressure fell .5mb from 16:53 to 17:53. Not sure if this indicates intensification or the lowest pressure point in Fay has moved over the sensors. Very interesting that Fay has stalled and now appears to be drifting to the E to ENE. Where Fay will end up is anyones guess.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Either a stalled loop happening right now or move towards Miami. To say it is definitely a move towards Miami would not be scientifically sound or accurate at this moment - but if it was moving towards Miami this is what it would look like.

[JPmia]

Channel 4 weather guy just said they found a 977mb pressure from Recon.