ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Really no one should talk absolutes, not even the pro mets, simply because no one truely know how a system is going to react to something, no doubt they have a better idea but thats no absolute, thats my little piece anyway

Another piece of bad news, Galveston only calling Vol.evacs. I'm shocked given the chance that Ike could wobble north of the NHC track and slam into that reigon as a huge major hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

Charley was a Cat 5, the most intense hurricane to ever make landfall in US, not the same storm as IKe

Category 4: 150 mph. The Labor Day Hurricane in 1935, pressure 892 mb, was the most intense.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Just to let every one know Fox13weather's comment was directed at me. I do not consider my self an amature when it comes to weather. I have been forecasting and studying since I was in 4th grade. I might not have gone to college to become a pro but I have dedicated my life to weather education, learning, and helping others in disasters. I am a redcross volunteer both locally and nationally and I have taking many courses on natural disasters. My friends and family all trust my forecasting skills and I hope that even though I am no pro I hope one day you all will as well. My comment I made that Fox13weather got mad at I did not put a disclaimer on but I would think considering it wasn't just me but also a pro-met saying the same thing that it would have had more to back it up then just me saying it and it wouldn't need a disclaimer but for now on I will make sure I put one on every post I make. If we had signatures on here still I would put it in my signature!

Now this will be the last post I make about this subject. I am sorry if I made any one mad.

[WmE]

Charley was a Cat 5, the most intense hurricane to ever make landfall in US, not the same storm as IKe

Category 4: 150 mph. The Labor Day Hurricane in 1935, pressure 892 mb, was the most intense.

And the most intense to make landfall anywhere.

[CronkPSU]

Charley was a Cat 5, the most intense hurricane to ever make landfall in US, not the same storm as IKe

ummmm no

[USTropics]

This is just a quick way to estimate storm surge based on pressure, not always accurate but uses the average of 52 storms that made landfall.

Using 1013mb as your starting point you then find the difference from the current pressure of the system. Ike is currently at 946 so:

1013-946=67

you then divide this by 4 to get your peak storm surge which is:

67/4=16.75 feet

This does not account for wave height (there is a formula for wave height as well: 1013mb-946mb=67 X .2 = 13.4 meters; and there is 3.28 feet in a meter so 13.4 X 3.28ft = 43.95ft). It also does not account for radius to maximum winds, forward speed, or angle of approach to coastline but does give a rough estimate.

[rtd2]

Charley was a Cat 5, the most intense hurricane to ever make landfall in US, not the same storm as IKe

thought it was a CAT 4 at L/F

[gtalum]

Charley was a Cat 5

Umm, no it wasn't.

[Agua]

Holy cow this storm is pushing water! Came in to work in Biloxi this morning and spots along 90 already beginning to be covered with the water already up to the edge of the highway. Thankful it isn't coming here.

[lester]

Charley was a Cat 5, the most intense hurricane to ever make landfall in US, not the same storm as IKe

thought it was a CAT 4 at L/F

it was...
-lester

[CajunMama]

Back to ike guys...

[fox13weather]

Just to let every one know Fox13weather's comment was directed at me. I do not consider my self an amature when it comes to weather. I have been forecasting and studying since I was in 4th grade. I might not have gone to college to become a pro but I have dedicated my life to weather education, learning, and helping others in disasters. I am a redcross volunteer both locally and nationally and I have taking many courses on natural disasters. My friends and family all trust my forecasting skills and I hope that even though I am no pro I hope one day you all will as well. My comment I made that Fox13weather got mad at I did not put a disclaimer on but I would think considering it wasn't just me but also a pro-met saying the same thing that it would have had more to back it up then just me saying it and it wouldn't need a disclaimer but for now on I will make sure I put one on every post I make. If we had signatures on here still I would put it in my signature!

Now this will be the last post I make about this subject. I am sorry if I made any one mad.

Relax, just don't post "absolutes and facts" when you are not qualified to. I believe I am a solid tropical met, but I understand the limits of the science and have to watch what I say. Case in point, JB who was on FNC last week all but guaranteeing a hugo like hurricane hit from hanna in the Carolinas. He does that knowing that the public is somewhat forgiving when it comes to blown forecasts and if he is right, it is huge promotion for accuweather and more $$$ for them. Totally irresesponsible and I will not be afraid to tell him that the next time I see him.

[mahicks]

Thanks for this post. Nice info!
Once again, I am learning.

This is just a quick way to estimate storm surge based on pressure, not always accurate but uses the average of 52 storms that made landfall.

Using 1013mb as your starting point you then find the difference from the current pressure of the system. Ike is currently at 946 so:

1013-946=67

you then divide this by 4 to get your peak storm surge which is:

67/4=16.75 feet

This does not account for wave height (there is a formula for wave height as well: 1013mb-946mb=67 X .2 = 13.4 meters; and there is 3.28 feet in a meter so 13.4 X 3.28ft = 43.95ft). It also does not account for radius to maximum winds, forward speed, or angle of approach to coastline but does give a rough estimate.

[dwg71]

read wikipedia too quickly, my mistake..

[Agua]

Water already over the road in spots along 90 in Biloxi. This storm is pushing a LOT of water. So thankful it isn't coming here.

[WmE]

Charley was the complete opposite of Ike. It was small, but intense. And it was never, ever a Cat 5.

[x-y-no]

Charley was a Cat 5, the most intense hurricane to ever make landfall in US, not the same storm as IKe

Sorry but no, Charley was neither a Cat 5 nor the strongest storm ever to make US landfall.

[KWT]

The thing to remember is this has a very deep pressure more akin to that of a top 3, if it can focus the energy into one eyewall rather then constantly having several eyewalls battling each other, then things can get going and the winds will really rise....this is a set-up where winds could rise just before landfall, thats got to be the worst case.

[vbhoutex]

Galveston Island just went mandatory evac.

Stop with the opining about the officials and stay on the subject.

[jdjaguar]

latest recon shows 945 mb

Ike..not Charlie (jk)