Texas Winter 2013-2014

[high_lander]

I don't know why, but I have this feeling we just might get a gut punch with this one. No science to support it, just a feeling.

[wxman57]

Yep, 12Z NAM is definitely colder and wetter in the cold air. Winter's last gasp, I hope. March has sprung!

[SouthernMet]

12z nam significantly wetter but this should surprise no one.
& im inclined to believe this scenario for a few reasons..

One, we are now 24 hours out and nam has done ALOT better than the gfs in the 24-48 hour range.

Two, as I said yesterday, when our storm makes landfall we will get much more reliable, accurate model data.. Now we have it.

Three, this was not your average storm. Look at all the problems California is dealing with right now..(tornados, mudslides, severe flooding)

[TheProfessor]

Yeah it almost looks like one of those mega storms you see on the syfy channel.

[SouthernMet]

Ntw & orangeblood what worries me is amount of POSTFRONTAL precip that seems so backbuild.. because if verified, this would be a classic winter storm scenario.(esp for dfw) the first precip (along the front) appears to be a very cold rain turning to freezing rain.. But after that we quickly drop into the 20s and back-building takes place behind it..(commonly seen with potent storms) models may be picking up on this just because it has shifted south a bit..

But if you are in the dfw area go look at hour number 33 of the 12z nam, it should look familiar.. This storms just bombs out precip on the backside and I'm particularly worried for 2 reasons.. : 1 if temps drop to the lower 20s (as progged) with ANY precip, obviously there will be higher ice accumulation ratios. 2 the nam is now showing .75" qpf for the metro which would be insane.

edit : sref also a lot wetter, showing a decent ice storm, esp for northeast texas.

[gboudx]

How deep is the warm layer? Wondering if there's a chance of more sleet than freezing rain if that scenario played out.

[aggiecutter]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
430 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

ARZ050-051-059-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-
012200-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0008.140303T0000Z-140303T1200Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-MILLER-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...
TEXARKANA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...
PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...
JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL
430 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM TYLER AND JEFFERSON TEXAS...TO
TEXARKANA AND NASHVILLE ARKANSAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY.

* EVENT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR STATE AREA
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...QUICKLY DROPPING AIR TEMPERATURES TO
AT AND EVENTUALLY BELOW FREEZING.

* TIMING...THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES
WITH BELOW FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET ON SUNDAY AND
THEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

* IMPACT...GROUND TEMPERATURES ON ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM
FOR MUCH MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME SLUSH TO DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL ACCUMULATE ICE
AND SLEET MUCH SOONER...MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS AND UNTIL AT LEAST DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[Ntxw]

How deep is the warm layer? Wondering if there's a chance of more sleet than freezing rain if that scenario played out.

It's very warm and sizeable. But the lower level cold is very cold and also a couple thousand feet thick. Could start as freezing rain then changeover to sleet it all depends on timing of the cold. You don't want freezing rain with this because the mid 20s is not something you want to mess with when it comes to rain.

GFS keeps all the heavy precip pre-frontal. If you want heavy rain then you will be rooting for the GFS and it keeps post frontal precip at a minimum. NAM is colder but keeps much of the precip post frontal and less than the GFS qpf wise. Perhaps somewhere in the middle?

[high_lander]

By the way I am form So Cal and this is really how we handle rain events:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_iI8gm7Kzc

Stormwatch2014!!!! Rainmageddon!

[TheProfessor]

Has the cold front already past OKC ? Because there is almost a 10 degree difference between OKC and Durant. If so, does that mean the cold front is ahead of schedule?

[Rgv20]

Todays forecast high is 87 and tomorrow is 91.....by Monday at 2PM we should be in the low 40s!



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A strong cold front will blast through the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas early Monday morning. Temperatures will quickly plummet with all areas in the 40s by noon. Temperatures will steadily fall through the afternoon hours with readings in the 30s and lower 40s by Tuesday morning. Strong north winds behind the front will create wind chills or "feels like" temperatures in the 20s and 30s. Areas of light rain and drizzle will quickly develop behind the front, with rain chances increasing Monday night into Tuesday as an area of low pressure approaches from the west and low pressure develops just off the Lower Coast. -Campbell-

[gboudx]

How deep is the warm layer? Wondering if there's a chance of more sleet than freezing rain if that scenario played out.

It's very warm and sizeable. But the lower level cold is very cold and also a couple thousand feet thick. Could start as freezing rain then changeover to sleet it all depends on timing of the cold. You don't want freezing rain with this because the mid 20s is not something you want to mess with when it comes to rain.

GFS keeps all the heavy precip pre-frontal. If you want heavy rain then you will be rooting for the GFS and it keeps post frontal precip at a minimum. NAM is colder but keeps much of the precip post frontal and less than the GFS qpf wise. Perhaps somewhere in the middle?

Thanks. Heres Steve McCauleys latest:

P.S. The new data continue to come in, and it is looking like an even more significant ice event. Stay tuned for afternoon update.

[iorange55]

Geez. It's going to 81 today and then 20 degrees Monday morning, with ice on the ground?



Come on now.

[Jarodm12]

Think this one is the real deal may mimic or exceed the november event

[TheProfessor]

Think this one is the real deal may mimic or exceed the november event

Well at my house there wasn't any accumulations during the November event, so it won't take much to exceed it.

[orangeblood]

Considering how warm ground temps will be and the time of day the main frozen precip will fall, this storm seems like a minor event, IMO. But if any convective precip bands develop behind the front, things could get interesting.

[orangeblood]

Also, this is a great test case for which model handles these type cold fronts the best. NAM is usually superior with timing, GFS for QPF but this system is very complex because timing of frontal passage and upper level system will make all the difference. Currently, the NAM and GFS have a 20 deg F temperature difference in DFW at noon tomorrow - NAM around 30 F and GFS 50 F - that is mind boggling for only 24 hours out.

Edit: 12Z Euro coming around towards the NAM...has front moving in much faster with heavy precip shortly after freezing line moves through the metroplex

[TheProfessor]

Well, there goes wxman57 favorite model that he has been using to tell us that nothing is going to happen, all he has us the GFS now.

[Ntxw]

Very cold air is starting to spill out of western and central Canada

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: Well, there goes wxman57 favorite model that he has been using to tell us that nothing is going to happen, all he has us the GFS now.

Yeah, its pretty obvious the GFS is going to bust big time on the frontal passage....short range RAP model right in line with the NAM's frontal passage - has front blasting through Metroplex before sunrise tomorrow, around 5-6 am