ATL: IRMA - Models

[tarheelprogrammer]

Short term trend west had a large shift in the landfall on the SE coast. It will be like that till it makes landfall somewhere. I am breathing a little easier here in Wilmington, NC. I will pray for you guys in Florida. I know the way the models are trending west is not looking good for ya'll.

[Sanibel]

I would call this slightly offshore and a locking of the track over almost 2 days now...

[MatthewsRevenge]

Wow, GFS has this hitting landfall in Savannah, GA.

[Raebie]

Savannah is in a world of trouble. No matter the model, it looks like landfall in that area is becoming more and more inevitable.

[Steve]

Yeah, GFS is still probably too far east. It's got Irma near to coming in along the GA Coast at 96 hours (which is valid Monday at 7am). It's probably a little too deep and a little too far east still though the 2nd landfall point makes sense in its run and will probably be at least close.

[NDG]

[Hurricane Andrew]

The GFS has the center of the eye 25-30 miles offshore, I ran the coordinates. The western eyewall rakes much of the coast. One more 25 mile shift brings the eye onshore. Interested to see the ECM, and the ENS.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS is slower with Irma to the point the 588dm ridge break occurs so further east turn, ECM is about 6 hours later.

[gatorcane]

CMC shifts a little west:

[gatorcane]

CMC shifts west:

[Jevo]

The only saving grace for GA at this point is most models have the storm at a borderline Cat 1/2.. Couldn't image a 4 pushing water up into that area. Irregardless depending on which model you look at, FL still has to deal with Irma as a Cat 4. The GFS is coming East this run by about 20 miles on approach and if it's ensembles are any measure we may see that encroach upon the FL East coast with later runs.

[Steve]

12Z Canadian is out to 60 hours, and it has Irma a little SW of the 00Z run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=186

Lanfdall Miami at about 70 hours (which would be Sunday morning at 5:00am).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=317

Definite swing West for the CMC which had been just east of the peninsula at 00Z.

[ronjon]

Yeah, GFS is still probably too far east. It's got Irma near to coming in along the GA Coast at 96 hours (which is valid Monday at 7am). It's probably a little too deep and a little too far east still though the 2nd landfall point makes sense in its run and will probably be at least close.

I agree - at this point based on the westward shifts of the NAM (synoptic use only), the 12z GFS and GEM, the relative consistency of the last two NAVGEM runs on the SW Fl coast, the EC ensembles, and the operational Euro verifying better with the actual storms movement (more southerly), I believe any future adjustments on track might be slightly westward. The GFS solution is still possible and these forecast turns with troughs can sometimes be difficult for models to grasp but I'm not seeing alot of evidence of that from other guidance so far.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The only saving grace for GA at this point is most models have the storm at a borderline Cat 1/2.. Couldn't image a 4 pushing water up into that area. Irregardless depending on which model you look at, FL still has to deal with Irma as a Cat 4. The GFS is coming East this run by about 20 miles on approach and if it's ensembles are any measure we may see that encroach upon the FL East coast with later runs.

Jevo, the GFS has it as a 4 into GA...and even the NHC has it as a 3 on approach.

[Pughetime12]

Yeah, GFS is still probably too far east. It's got Irma near to coming in along the GA Coast at 96 hours (which is valid Monday at 7am). It's probably a little too deep and a little too far east still though the 2nd landfall point makes sense in its run and will probably be at least close.

If it comes in more west, wouldn't it come in further down in Georgia? With it getting pushed NW once it's in Georgia, I'm wondering if that would lessen some of the wind speeds in the coastal areas of GA/SC.

[Zarniwoop]

Honest question from someone who is ignorant.

Does anyone take the GFS intensity forecast seriously? I mean anyone that matters.

Because, they always seem outrageously low compared to other models. And I'm probably imagining this, but they always seem to be east of most other models in my limited experience of watching.

Just a beginner question.

[gatorcane]

Anybody have text UKMET?

[Craters]

The NHC has their storm-surge maps up for Irma in the graphics section.

Direct link to the model's inundation map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents

[Steve]

Looks like being within 72 hours of S/SE FL Landfall, the tracks are really starting to come together. GFS is near shore. CMC is on shore. And they haven't been the best with Irma (CMC slightly better to 72 hours last I looked). Next to run are the lesser models NAVGEM and JMA and the mesoscale models HMON and HWRF. If they are all clustered at or near the S/SE Tip of FL in 68-72 hours, I think we can raise the hurricane flags in Miami.

Of course EC is still an hour and a half out and could throw a monkey wrench into this since it's the best model.

[norva]

Do you think the NHC cone at 5 will shift West because of these runs or stay the same?