ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SapphireSea]

What time frame should palm beach county get the most wind.?

Around 7 or 8 pm. Thus far it may be 30 to 40 mph winds with higher gusts on the squalls. Stay home and relax, and stay safe.

[KBBOCA]

Dr. Jeff Masters posted this as a comment just a little while ago on his latest blog entry at Wunderground - explains possible effects of ERC


552. Dr. Jeff Masters , Director of Meteorology (Admin)
8:33 PM GMT on October 06, 2016
The Hurricane Hunters just found concentric eyewalls with a diameter of 75 and 12 miles. Radar data also confirms that Matthew is likely going through an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), where the inner eyewall will collapse and be replaced by a giant outer eyewall with a diameter of 75 miles. If the inner eyewall collapses before Matthew hits Florida, the top winds at landfall might be only Category 2 strength. The down side of an ERC is that it will spread hurricane-force winds out over a larger area, increasing the storm surge. Another issue with a large radius outer eyewall is the potential for prolonged exposure to high winds on the western edge, as the storm moves northward along the coast.

I think Matthew has very little chance of increasing its winds beyond the current advisory intensity of 140 mph.

An experimental version of the SHIPS model run at 2 pm EDT predicts predicts max winds of 111, 105, 102, and 101 kts at 6, 12, 18, and 24 hrs if ERC-weakening begins now. Without the ERC, SHIPS (with inland decay if the storm hits land) predicts 121, 119, 117, and 114 kts.

Jeff Masters

[adam0983]

Better start moving west now for that to verify.

[Nimbus]

First major feeder band is bringing sustained TS storm winds at the Cape.
Could be power outages soon there.

http://radblast-aa.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=MLB&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.622&noclutter=0&t=1180778261&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=31&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=472&centery=243&transx=72&transy=3&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0

[tarheelprogrammer]

What in the world is this guy doing.


https://twitter.com/Deathbymartymar/status/784122375424004096/video/1

Hopefully he is scaring some sense into the ones who are trying to stay. Makes sense to me.

[Raebie]

What in the world is this guy doing.


https://twitter.com/Deathbymartymar/status/784122375424004096/video/1

Being his typical drama queen self.

[adam0983]

How do we still have a hurricane warning I palm beach county if the winds are only 40mph?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HRRR, NAM, WRF, et cetera are mesoscale models and weren't design to model TC dynamics. That's why we have the HWRF, for example. Best not to use them.

[ronyan]

Any bear sightings on the Florida coast? With some of the attitudes I've heard I wouldn't be surprised.

[AxaltaRacing24]

How do we still have a hurricane warning I palm beach county if the winds are only 40mph?

Because hurricane conditions especially in northern palm beach county will begin tonight.

[artist]

Exactly. Originally he was to be here around 2am, then it was stated, depending on speed anywhere from 11 until around 2.

Everybody is talking about how lucky we were and how we have been spared. Keep in mind that the storm has not even come in yet. The worst conditions were not even expected until 11pm in the first place.

[bob rulz]

What in the world is this guy doing.


https://twitter.com/Deathbymartymar/status/784122375424004096/video/1

Hopefully he is scaring some sense into the ones who are trying to stay. Makes sense to me.

Christ no. There's a difference between sensible warnings and absurd scaremongering. That is far into the latter.

[dukeblue219]

How do we still have a hurricane warning I palm beach county if the winds are only 40mph?

Because the hurricane is still moving and conditions are likely to get worse before they get better, even though the center may not make landfall there. The NHC is definitely not going to reduce a Hurricane Warning to a TS Warning with a Cat4 spinning right off the coast.

[davidiowx]

What in the world is this guy doing.


https://twitter.com/Deathbymartymar/status/784122375424004096/video/1

Hopefully he is scaring some sense into the ones who are trying to stay. Makes sense to me.

Christ no. There's a difference between sensible warnings and absurd scaremongering. That is far into the latter.

Exactly. That is media just being the media of today. That is absurd in my opinion. Fear-mongering at it's finest.

[ronjon]

western outer eyewall looks nasty - not far offshore WPB/Ft Laud - buckle up.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/miami/amx/?region=pie

[bqknight]

Does anyone have a link to a radar that has more than 10 frames?

[sbcc]

Can I quickly post a non storm note and say how impressed I am with the Storm 2K servers. You guys must be getting slammed with traffic, and yet the site is operating totally smoothly.

I just sent a donation today as I'm sure you're burning through bandwidth with all the extra traffic.... Hope others will do the same.

I did the same yesterday, first time donation. Same reasons. Been lurking for years here and I've learned so much. The site runs great now. Haven't turned gold yet but I'd guess maybe the staff has other things on their mind right now.

[hipshot]

How do we still have a hurricane warning I palm beach county if the winds are only 40mph?

The storm is still several hours away for crying out loud, give it a rest!!

[Hurrilurker]

NHC has consistently underestimated Matthew's forecast strength. They keep calling for weakening and Matthew keeps resisting it.

[ronyan]

Does anyone have a link to a radar that has more than 10 frames?

http://weather.graphics/mrms/florida/fl ... r_long.gif