Are Recent Trends Offering Winter Hints?

[donsutherland1]

Chris,

Bear in mind the risk of error associated with longer-range forecasting. With regard to the 26-degree readings, I believe the best possibility concerns sometime during the 11/19-21 timeframe.

1) It will immediately follow a reamplification of the pattern.
2) It will likely see a neutral to negative NAO.

There are some hints that another shot of cold could arrive around or just after 11/27, though the GFS 12Z isn't buying any of this. This is speculative at this point in time. The 11/19-21 period looks best.

Bear in mind, if I'm off by 2-3 degrees, from this far out, I won't be all that disappointed. At the same time, I won't be as happy as if I nailed the exact figures. The temperatures are more for a general idea of the continuing variability that is likely during the second half of November.

[Stormsfury]

this is a great topic and great imformation from everyone. Don, im interested to hear what morning u expect D.C. and NYC to reach 26º. It appears according to the guys over at WWBB that the midatlantic soutward atleast will be under the influence of the SE ridge with no real cold air in sight till atleast the end of the month. There is the amplification swinging through on thursday and Friday but I doubt your referring to this as when these cities go into the 20s, right? By the way, highly agree on all that you have said and stormsfury i agree with you too, only i disagree when you say "no real prolonged WARm and COLD situations" I feel that we will have those times this winter, although variation will rule over everything. Look for February to have a prolonged period of cold and snow if you ask me. But I do agree that the winter will be accompanied by short/sharp cold shots coming through for a lot of the winter. Timing of storms is gonna be huuuuuge this winter, lets hope it works out for the better.

NJ, one of things I am not sure of, especially regarding any real prolonged situations is the mean storm track ... I really see a lot of differing storm tracks this year ... hence, where everyone kinda gets into the action this winter (well, MOST everyone) ... sorry Floridians ...

Depending on the forecasted El Niño outputs you see, would vary greatly oh what kind of outlook would be normally associated with such ... many of the Niño forecasts I've seen are for an El Niño WEST scenario ... and with the ATL signals clearly more dominant (as evidenced by this year's hurricane season for the EPAC vs. ATL), this could become quite an interesting winter ... I do not really favor ANY analog year right now ... b/c of such variability already evidenced by November ... heck, even Alaska joined in with some record warmth ... (another thread on here, and strangely enough, broke a record set back in 1979).

Obviously, the AGCM Forecast looks like a winter weather lover's dream setting up with a -NAO and a fairly +PNA especially from Jan-April 2004.

SST anomalies


20mb Height Anomalies


Monthly Temp Anomalies


Monthly Rainfall Anomalies


Looking at the variability from month to month, especially towards February could lead me to believe at a more suppressed storm track (could get quite good for regions further south) ...

Gonna be an interesting winter ...

SF

[Guest]

By the looks of those temps it looks to be below normal for here and precip above normal (Dec,Jan-Feb).................Jan-Feb-Mar though shows normal precip with below normal temps????? By that alone keeps me happy enough which as well agrees with my winter outlook very well!!!!!!
IMHO looks to be a very good winter for alot of us snow hounds.............Gonna be one fun ride!

[WEATHER53]

I think weather since about 10/10 has been reflective or what is in store. Most of the low pressures will continue along and west of applchsn, moving along ny state/pa border such that points north of that stay cold and points south stay mild. I think Boston, Albany will end up at or below normal for Nov/Dec while DCA is +2 for each month. However, will no la nina, like 01-02, the intrusions of cold air will not be prohibited. We had a decent cold shot in October and last weekend also, I failed to pick up on this correctly and now have adjusted, but the vast majority of the next 45 days, on order of 70%, will be above normal in temps for DC area. Then what happens next we do not have a consensus on . I think Jan continues mild unitl 1/20 then sharply colder for Feb into March. KA thinks Jan is cold and then Feb is mild. We agree that once cold the systems will be supressive with a very real possiblilty that rRchmond and even Norfolk have as much snow as Boson or NYC. So for DC, too mild for Dec and possibly Jan and then when cold enough the systems are supressive thus 12-15" total snow for the season, below normal, but not a snow shut-out like 01-02.

[Tip]

I can't find the link, but there was a chart posted on another board that showed that the chances of the weather continuing to be the same were very low if you used October or November to extrapolate. However, once into December or January the chances of that type of weather continuing shot up markedly. I don't believe any pattern will reveal itself til mid December. Just an opinion.

Are there any analogs for years where a east coast trough/ western ridge pattern broke down in October after lasting almost a year with the approximate teleconnections in place?

[donsutherland1]

Tip,

The information pertained to October pattern having the lowest tendency of those for any given month to persist and discussed the possibility of a November reversal. The article was posted at Intellicast (http://intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1411/) but has since been pulled. I don't know the reason it was not archived.

[donsutherland1]

As of 3 pm, a wild storm continued to rake the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley states northward and much of Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick with high winds--those venturing outside would probably argue that severe blowing hair warnings should also be in effect.

In parts of Quebec, showers and rain have now changed to snow and moderate to heavy snow will likely move into the Montreal and Quebec City areas as the afternoon and evening progress. Some areas could pick up beaucoup de neige. Parts of northern New England should receive an appreciable snowfall.

As of 3 pm, some conditions included:

Boston: 51 Partly Sunny (29.16S)--Gusts to 35 mph
Burlington: 41 Light Sleet (28.97F)--Gusts to 31 mph
New York City: 47 Partly Sunny (29.45R)--Gusts to 49 mph
Richmond: 52 Partly Sunny (29.86R)--Gusts to 36 mph


This <b>amplification</b>, which was foreseen by a number of us--<b>King of Weather</b>, for example--signals what I believe is the start of a transitional period.

To be sure, after the brief cold shot in the wake of today's storm (Friday and Saturday will be the coldest days), milder weather will return. I expect another amplification perhaps 5-6 days down the road followed by another shot of cold air.

This next cold shot continues to draw reasonable support from the Canadian Ensembles.

In addition, the turn to negative for the NAO on which I was keying has just occurred. I anticipate that it will remain negative for at least the next week to ten days, though not necessarily strongly negative.

Hence, I continue to believe that the 11/19-21 cold shot will be decent, with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s from Washington, DC to Boston (colder outside the big cities, of course).

This cold shot will not mark the start of a new pattern, however. In fact--and I can hear the curses cascading at me--I believe a ridge along or off the East Coast will try to make a comeback following this cold shot. Hence, readings are likely to climb to above normal to much above normal levels for a spell afterward. At this time, I am confident that 60s are likely at the peak of the warmth in both New York City and Boston.

Finally, there remain hints that maybe--just maybe--a more important change to a colder regime could begin to unfold around 11/27-29, possibly following another important storm. However, there are arguments against this, most notably indications that the Pacific jet could again strengthen around that timeframe.

[Tip]

I have heard a few long range forecasters mention the PAC Jet being energized or as some say roaring. This conclusion leads them to a warmer than normal East Coast November and maybe December since a any attempt at a west coast ridge will be beaten down by the jet. Without an even weak EL NINO to fuel the PAC jet or as sometimes referred to as the Pineapple Express in El Nino years, there must be something else involved. The only thing that stands out in the SST anomoly map is some higher than normal temps around the Bering Sea and off the NE coast. So I not sure why the EPAC jet would have an overwhelming influence on any long term weather pattern. Maybe I'm missing something? Thanks for any comments.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/c ... anomv2.gif

Oh by the way this latest Quebec Bomb has created one of the worst windstorms in central Jersey in recent history. Still around 980 mil with another trough spinning around the main storm entering western NY at this time
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/weather/difax/3096.gif

[donsutherland1]

Tip,

With regard to the Pacific Jet, my reference refers to a possible new up pulse that would be temporary. I am not suggesting that the Pacific jet will dominate for much of the winter ala a modate El Nino (W) and apologize for any confusion I might have created. In fact, I believe that the Pacific signals will be fairly weak this winter even with a possible borderline El Nino (N/W-). Warm anomalies should also be greater in 3.4 than 1+2.

Overall, I'm believe the odds more strongly favor a return of cold to the East starting in the 11/27-29 period.

[Tip]

Don,

Sorry for the confusion. I wasn't specially referring to you forecasting a prolonged PAC Jet. When you mentioned it in you post the thought of other references to it just came to mind. With the indicies lining up (-NAO,+PNA and -AO in the next two weeks, we will see if the east turns colder and snowier. However, from my experience with the 2000-2001 nigntmare winter, it is not always a lock lol.

[donsutherland1]

With regard to two possible opportunities for colder weather, I had previously </b>noted</b> prospects for the 11/19-21 period.

The latest data indicates that any chill behind a possible mid-week storm will not be impressive. In fact, it could be minimal.

See the 850 mb temperature evolution for the past 4 days:

<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=127479">

Cold air is retreating from the eastern U.S. In addition, it is unlikely that the slowly advancing cold air in western Canada will come into the eastern U.S. this week.

Hence, based on this information, the strongest push of cold air now appears to be that which should occur starting during the 11/27-29 period. The Pacific Jet will need to be watched, as it could help blunt or delay this push of cold, as well.

[WEATHER53]

Also showing up in last few days are precipitation shield that were forecasted to make it into DC metro instead sliding south. As we discussed in our outlook issued in late Sept we expcect a lot of supressive low movement this year, thru Virginia and North Carolina split between lows moving over or west of applchns, like they have been doing for 6 weeks, and Very little up the coast moves. A cold storm around 11/20 with possible snow for mid atlantic is getting kicked around- I do not see that and think in fact it will be another west of applchns mover, but I am still on for something of real interest, and a rarity for this season I believe, which is coastal action in 11/29-12/2 time frame.

[LehighValleyForcaster]

I've been saying this from the beginning.

I still think we will have a late start with winter and a early spring.

I also know we will have cold snaps and maybe a storm or two before winter ends.

I also said that the Northeast may not even see any snow because of the mild temps.

I did say we may even see some snow showers here, now and then, but nothing that will stick around or brag about.

Jan and Feb will be our only hope with the possibility of another El Nino developing that can change things for the better or the worse.

All we can do is wait and watch and maybe we will be lucky.

As of now.......the cold snaps will come and go and some snow activity possibly that will not stick around long.


____________________________________________________________

Such variability could lead to unseasonable severe weather outbreaks and big snows all in the same week ... sometimes from the same system ...

IF November is bringing us any precursor, it's going to be quite a roller coaster ride this winter, with probably no real prolonged WARM or COLD situations.

SF

[donsutherland1]

Weather53,

Your seasonal forecast is doing very well, so far. I don't agree with the speculation of a cold storm for 11/20 and as the 850 mb chart showed, the cold air will almost certainly be lacking for that storm.

The latter storm you're describing, if it verifies, should be a real coup for you, as you have been mentioning it for some time now.

[Guest]

Weather53,

Your seasonal forecast is doing very well, so far. I don't agree with the speculation of a cold storm for 11/20 and as the 850 mb chart showed, the cold air will almost certainly be lacking for that storm.

The latter storm you're describing, if it verifies, should be a real coup for you, as you have been mentioning it for some time now.

Yea the storm towards the end of the month has alot of peoples intrest and has some backing anyways as far as the NAO,PNA etc suggest..........The storm for 11/20 looks to a big rain maker atleast for quite a few and as well a big severe producer for tomorrow into Tuesday......................Higher elevation snows at best for now from this storm..................

[donsutherland1]

Just a quick update...

In terms of the idea for temperature extremes for the November 16-30 period, the following ideas had been provided:

Estimated November 16-30, 2003 Extremes:
Boston: 63-23
New York City: 64-26
Washington, DC: 67-26

The following highs have so far been achieved:
Boston: 60
New York City: 64
Washington, DC: 70

At this time, the lowest temperatures are far off the initial ideas--so far, in fact, that the initial ideas appear out of sight.

But, there should be two opportunities to trim the prodigious gap between the actual lows and the forecast idea:

1) Tuesday night-Wednesday night
2) Near the very end of the month

The idea that "readings will probably average near normal to somewhat above normal in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions" still looks good. What looks less well is the idea that central and northern New England could see readings near normal to somewhat below normal.

The NAO is also behaving pretty much as anticipated at this point.

The snowfall estimates for the month are also looking all right, when one examines the most recent model guidance.

For now, there's no need to think of snowfall. The unseasonably mild weather will continue through Monday before more seasonable air returns for the aforementioned Tuesday-Wednesday period.

[Tip]

The current indice for the PNA is astonishingly negative, about as negative as I've ever seen it.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... index.html

This indicator seems to verify the power of the pattern now in place and may take quite awhile to dislodge.

[WEATHER53]

To me the storm in 11/29-12/2 time frame is looking more, and not less, possible and althou it will be rain, it will be very cool with temps in DC in low 40's.

[WEATHER53]

I am not a model follower but the guys at WWBB are starting to clamour about the storm system for the weekend shown on the models.

[Guest]

Well 53 first off the storm looks to be on Thursday-Friday timeframe IMO. Secondly i wouldnt encourage anyone going overthere unless they plan on taking a beating (Flamed) or such.

After thinking long and hard about it the last couple of days all i can say is it is a very unpleasent and especially a very UN-PROFESSIONAL atmosphere at WWBB. And to really sum it up i would have to say that you can get the same quality info here at Storm2K (If not better and more broader) verses WWBB.
IMHO if those guys (Few btw) are so good then why all the disagreements over there and as well if they were so good then they could try and prove it here in a more civilized atmosphere???? RNS,DON,SF,Tip, And a few others both Pro (Who shall remain namless unless they want the credit), and amature's (As good as anyone on wwbb) can do it! Why cant they??????? Lastly unlike wwbb we have great contributers (Pro's & Great Amatures) from Coast to Coast and over seas! That not even wwbb can even come close to!!!!

Have a good day!