ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Blown Away]

I estimate former Fred is about 1850 miles from SFL longitude, which is just about 120 hours out at 15 mph, IMO former Fred is moving faster than 15 mph. If that ridge holds up it could drive former Fred very close or over SFL before the ridge begins to erode

[MWatkins]

I am actually a bit concerned about what is left over from Fred (which, according to some here, would never ever never make it past 40 west).

It has been pulsing up and down over the last couple of days, but the shear has let up some and with ridging building in, it could find itself in a favorable environment by the end of the week. That circulation has held together remarkably well considering the conditions, and these systems always bother me (these that hang around like this) especially at this time of year.

I may just be getting old, but IF this does come back, and the 0Z SHIP guidance sure suggests it could, it once again illustrates the folly of message board deterministic forecasting.

Anyone who knows for sure what a system is going to do is selling you snake oil. I have much greater respect for the forecasters who give ranges of probability, and who can discuss different scenarios.

MW

[cycloneye]

I am actually a bit concerned about what is left over from Fred (which, according to some here, would never ever never make it past 40 west).

It has been pulsing up and down over the last couple of days, but the shear has let up some and with ridging building in, it could find itself in a favorable environment by the end of the week. That circulation has held together remarkably well considering the conditions, and these systems always bother me (these that hang around like this) especially at this time of year.

I may just be getting old, but IF this does come back, and the 0Z SHIP guidance sure suggests it could, it once again illustrates the folly of message board deterministic forecasting.

Anyone who knows for sure what a system is going to do is selling you snake oil. I have much greater respect for the forecasters who give ranges of probability, and who can discuss different scenarios.

MW

Good points Mike.

[brunota2003]

Gained about two degrees longitude in 6 hours. I'd say it's moving at a pretty good clip.

Well for one, we cant be certain where the true center is...and for two, it is possible the center jumped to the deeper convection. Nonetheless, those who say it is dead, done, gone forever may wanna rethink that just slightly...

[Ivanhater]

I just do not get it when people make comments like there is NO WAY it is coming to the U.S. This is not the first time, if you make certainty posts, you will get burned sooner or later.

[cycloneye]

Like the dead pronouncements.Those bite back.

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Going poof again?

[brunota2003]

The SHPS/DSHPS on the last post on the models thread bring it to 72 knots at 120 hours (strengthening the entire model run)

[gatorcane]

I for one must admit, I thought it was not even going to have the slightest chance to make a run at the Caribbean or CONUS, at least when I looked at the synoptics last week at this time.

But once I saw the ridge projections by the models from last weekend and the fact it was going to bend back to the west, you saw my posts indicating that we should not write it off yet.

I do admit it seems to be moving W to WNW at a fairly good clip now which shows it is caught under a solid ridge at least at the lower-levels. Question is if it develops do the falling heights projections by some of the global models in the long-range still hold? In that case a curve east of the CONUS would still be likely (albeit with a possible Bermuda threat?)

Watch that area E of the Bahamas, should it develop into anything and move off to the NE, that would be the weakness needed to block Fred from impacting the CONUS. But should it not develop, we would need to see a trough to enter the picture around day 7 maybe?

[Emmett_Brown]

I think the odds of Fred coming back are getting better and better, and when you think of it, this should not come as a surprise. History is full of examples where major 'canes made landfall (obviously different than Fred, but just to illustrate), weakened to remnant lows over land, only to spring back to life once they hit the water (where conditions were favorable). So systems often come back, and it is not all that rare, especially when the system was once a strong vortex like Fred.

[Emmett_Brown]

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Going poof again?

Yup, it will likely pulse up and down I think. But the trend is for bigger pulses, so it will probably bounce back again.

[Aric Dunn]

So many many many times.. i think I started preaching once ( or twice lol ) on here about the stark realities of the tropics and people including mets blowing things off systems to quickly just to have them come back. notice the NHC they have had code yellow the entire time! while others like watkins has mentioned called the all clear even with the nhc saying there has been possibility. Also i recall nearly everyone on here saying its a fish storm and will never effect land, and now it is possible that it may affect land in some way to early to tell for sure but the models this entire time have been maintaining the system through the period..

Anyway Fred being in a marginal environment now but still very close to the ull which may limit the convection on the southern portion of the circ will with a little from the ull dropping slightly wsw which would put fred on the northern more conducive side of the ull. if that happens strengthening may even be a higher possibility.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS does not develop Fred, but if you look at the H5 charts, it shows a considerable Western Atlantic ridge at day 7 with an approaching trough to the west.

[Emmett_Brown]

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Going poof again?

Yup, it will likely pulse up and down I think. But the trend is for bigger pulses, so it will probably bounce back again.

Also, I fully expect certain members of the board to declare Fred dead for good when this recent burst wanes... we have to keep our eye on the overall trend. Here is the trend we are seeing now:

1. Shear still there, but lessening.
2. Moisture envelop slowly returning.
3. Upper level low is moderately negative for development, so should keep Fred from rapidly strengthening.
4. Ships model slowly strengthening over the next 5 days, indicating it also sees slowly improving conditions.

[brunota2003]

The southern side needs the convection the worst, it was only holding on by 5 knots.

[gatorcane]

Question: if it develops as the SHIPs indicates, would that mean more west or more poleward (north)?

[Blown Away]

If Fred ever makes it to Florida it will be before 7 days, so if Fred regenerates, which I think he will, he may be moving generally towards SFL.

[Emmett_Brown]

Question: if it develops as the SHIPs indicates, would that mean more west or more poleward (north)?

The BAMMD shows a more westerly track, so I think it sees that the H500 ridge is forecast to be strong; so it looks like stronger means more west in this case.

[Blown Away]

Gator, IMO this is the last W bound system SFL needs to dodge this year. After Fred is gone time to start watching the NW Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9091512!!/

That is the ECMWF H5 map for 120 hours from 12Z today