ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[dixiebreeze]

Tropical Weather Statements
209
NOUS42 KNHC 251330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT WED 25 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-086

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
ON HURRICANE DANIELLE NEAR 25.5N 59.7W
AT 27/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[KWT]

Danielle comes fairly close to the Azores again as it recurves out of the way, close enough to probably warrent TS watches if it came off I'd imagine...

[TheDreamTraveler]

Danielle comes fairly close to the Azores again as it recurves out of the way, close enough to probably warrent TS watches if it came off I'd imagine...

I'm surprised you think the Azores deserve at least TS watches while you say nothing about the East Coast. A lot of times storms don't last that far, and that track is farther off than the ones currently. We don't even know what Danielle is going to do for sure even 5 days from now.

[KWT]

I don't yet, just commenting on what would happen if the 18z came off thats all, as it happens the upper trough lifts this one out before the Azores anyway on the 18z but 37-40N is still supportive of a hurricane, esp one that is getting support from the upper trough.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I don't yet, just commenting on what would happen if the 18z came off thats all, as it happens the upper trough lifts this one out before the Azores anyway on the 18z but 37-40N is still supportive of a hurricane, esp one that is getting support from the upper trough.

Oh, if it does come out that way then I can see why. But remember, the models are never 100% indicators. After we figure out what Danielle does within the week, then the final track should be much clearer.

But if that's the case, then since some models show it getting close to the East Coast, that you think some states might be deserving of TS/Hurricane watches? I mean, since you think the Azore's might if that one model is right.

[TheDreamTraveler]

[ronjon]

What is going on with the Navy model? - consecutive runs now heading toward NC. That model diagram above looks like a tree. Where is the model consensus on Danielle?

http://www.bvipirate.com/NOGAPS.phtml

[BigB0882]

Interesting, looks very evenly split with about 7 making it a fish and 7 curving it back to the West at some point.

[Stephanie]

Okay, so now I'm starting to get a bit concerned here...

[KWT]

GFDL brings hurricane winds to Bermuda then bends back to the WNW right at the end of the run though it still has a very long way to go to be a threat...

HWRF carries this one just a smidge west of due north...also gives Bermuda a blast of wind.

[ConvergenceZone]

Interesting, looks very evenly split with about 7 making it a fish and 7 curving it back to the West at some point.

Also remember, if it hits Bermuda, then it's no longer a fish, as Derek Ortt would be quick to point out to us...

[KWT]

Yeah exactly CZ, if you notice I've been using the word recurve and not using fish in the threads for that exact reason!

Tracks in pretty good agreement that the NHC will no doubt take it seriously and whilst Bermuda is well prepared a hurricane is still a hurricane no matter where it hits and will cause some damage.

[hurricaneCW]

Yeah exactly CZ, if you notice I've been using the word recurve and not using fish in the threads for that exact reason!

Tracks in pretty good agreement that the NHC will no doubt take it seriously and whilst Bermuda is well prepared a hurricane is still a hurricane no matter where it hits and will cause some damage.

Don't most storms recurve anyway if you think about it. It's just where they recurve that makes the difference. A total fish to me is one that recurves east of 60W because there is basically a zero chance of it effecting anyone, no Bermuda threat, no Canadian threat, certainly no U.S. threat, Azores maybe, highly unlikely. It'll probably eventually effect Greenland/Iceland or Northern Europe as a strong extratropical system.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 260052
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0052 UTC THU AUG 26 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100826 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100826  0000   100826  1200   100827  0000   100827  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.0N  53.5W   23.3N  55.7W   24.3N  57.1W   25.4N  58.8W
BAMD    22.0N  53.5W   23.9N  55.5W   25.3N  57.3W   26.3N  59.4W
BAMM    22.0N  53.5W   23.5N  55.5W   24.8N  57.1W   25.9N  59.1W
LBAR    22.0N  53.5W   23.8N  55.1W   25.1N  56.8W   26.3N  58.5W
SHIP        80KTS          86KTS          92KTS          97KTS
DSHP        80KTS          86KTS          92KTS          97KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100828  0000   100829  0000   100830  0000   100831  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.7N  60.3W   29.4N  62.6W   31.6N  63.1W   34.9N  61.1W
BAMD    27.5N  61.3W   29.9N  63.0W   33.5N  62.4W   37.4N  60.6W
BAMM    27.0N  60.9W   29.4N  62.4W   32.7N  61.6W   37.1N  59.8W
LBAR    27.6N  59.9W   30.9N  61.3W   33.7N  58.1W   34.4N  50.9W
SHIP        98KTS          95KTS          87KTS          73KTS
DSHP        98KTS          95KTS          87KTS          73KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  22.0N LONCUR =  53.5W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  19.3N LONM12 =  51.5W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  17.9N LONM24 =  48.9W
WNDCUR =   80KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   70KT
CENPRS =  978MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  150NM RD34SE =  105NM RD34SW =   90NM RD34NW = 120NM
 


[KWT]

Hmmmm starting to get some agreement on at least a bend back to the NW though most models still bend back and recurve away in the end.

Still maybe the start of a trend who knows!

[terrapintransit]

I'm sorry...but that is freaky looking..

[hurricaneCW]

Why are there two models bringing so far west? That's impossible for this system to do, it's clearly going east of Bermuda. Even its current movement indicates that it's going east of Bermuda, probably by over a couple hundred miles.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I'm sorry...but that is freaky looking..

I was JUST going to post this lol. But you're right, it is. If only the models wouldn't stop flip flopping, or actually get into agreement with eachother. Otherwise I still don't have a clue where it'll go.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Why are there two models bringing so far west? That's impossible for this system to do, it's clearly going east of Bermuda. Even its current movement indicates that it's going east of Bermuda, probably by over a couple hundred miles.

Just because it's going more East now doesn't mean it's going to continue that way 100%. Have you not been paying attention to the discussion or what all the meteorologists have been saying? Danielle has two ways to go once it gets up by Bermuda. East or West. And so far nobody knows exactly which way it'll go. It's gonna be around for a while.

[Dean4Storms]

Two different scenario's there really. The camp of the ridge is strong enough to turn Danielle back westward and the other camp of there is enough weakness between the ridges for Danielle to run through. I think I would trust the global models more so with this storm getting north of 30N latitude. Don't know how well the tropical models handle the higher latitude weather. Maybe a Prof. Met. could chime in on that one?