ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Ivanhater]

Not bad

[Riptide]

Such structures often become beautiful hurricanes, can't wait for this one to develop. You can see the inflow interacting with the convection over South America.

[vbhoutex]

hmmm...set up next week will be very interesting for the Gulf if the future Ernesto can make it thorugh the next 48 hrs and continue to consolidate. A strong ridge seems to hold up until mid next week, and then it retreats a bit to the East as a trouch falls in across the middle of the country. It looks like there will be a slight weakness in the ridge as a result of that encroaching trough, and depending on how deep it comes down and its angle/positioning, that could greatly impact the final direction of probable Ernesto for the end of next week/the weekend.
If Ernesto stays weak, the path will remain on the southern side of the current model guidance, and will likely not be impacted at all by those developments to the north, and simply ride into the Yucatan and be Mexico bound, and possibly emerge into the southern BOC before continuing into Mexico or extreme southern Texas.
But if Ernesto slowly ramps up and is a stronger storm and takes a more northerly route to end up just south of Cuba or the Caymans, then a recurve to the North is more likely at that point, as it could be in a position to take advantage of a weakness and be swung to the NW or N. Forward speed then becomes critical for final destination, as a slow mover will eventually be pushed in a more westernly direction sooner as the ridge builds back in. A faster mover will continue more northerly over more water until the returning ridge could turn it towards the west. Impact could be anywhere along the northern gulf, with high SST's and additional strengthening likely.
However, an early Ernesto getting too strong too soon could send him on the suicide path over the mountainous island of Hispanola while the ridge is still strong, and make him much weaker, and unable to fully take advantage of any temporary weakness that may develop. In that weakened state, his path would return to a more westerly route. That could either then allow slow restrengthening as he continues on a more w to wnw path towards the gulf through the straits of Florida if he can avoid Cuba entirely. -but like starting over again as a weak storm/depression from that point forward, but with a returning building ridge that would likely push the storm even further west after getting into the southern gulf (possibly north texas bound). However, if he gets put into traveling Cuba lengthwise, then little would remain but an open wave by the time he made it through the island.
So the true test is how strong is it going to get in the short term, to see where it will be in about 5 days...either slowly strengthening south of Cuba, being weak much further south traversing the southern caribbean, or being pretty strong but taking aim at Hispanola.
My best guess now is that the storm will steadily ramp up and be a hurricane 2 near the Caymans, heading wnw/nw. It will be heading through the yucatan channel as it will feel the slight weakness developing to the north as it slowly rounds the southwestern edge of the retreating ridge and start a more northern route. It will scare the northern gulf coast from panhandle to texas, but the returning building ridge will ultimately move it into northern texas by next Sunday.
TOTALLY my guess this early in the game!!! But that's how I'm thinking about it.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nice analysisl I DO NOT LIKE your final destination however!!! What you call North Texas we call SE TX. Poofing would be the favored end!!

Yes, I should have said "south east TX coast". I suspect that the storm, if it doesn't just head to the Yuc, would be "pushed" into TX from the ese/e, making the ugliest weather affect sw LA and norhtern SE TX coast. I'll even make a preliminary landing call...and boy is this far out: Freeport/Surfside Beach.

(TOTALLY FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES... I AM NOT A METEO PRO!!!!)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

OMG!! You are getting on my bad side quickly!!! J/K If that landfall verifies and what would be Ernesto is a hurricane, that will put where I live either on the NE side(probably the eyewall) or the eye could go right over us. NO VERIFICATION OF THIS PREDICTION IS ALLOWED!!

[bella_may]

12Z NOGAPS..I stand corrected...even the NOGAPS has this GOM bound and looks like LA...weak system though...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Looks like a Nola landfall

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021715
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 12 20120802
170700 1440N 05821W 4097 07414 0400 -120 -210 056017 018 018 000 03
170730 1439N 05818W 4098 07412 0400 -122 -209 060017 017 018 000 03
170800 1438N 05816W 4097 07415 0402 -120 -209 059017 017 019 000 00
170830 1437N 05814W 4098 07415 0402 -123 -208 066016 017 018 000 03
170900 1436N 05811W 4098 07415 0404 -124 -209 069015 016 017 000 00
170930 1434N 05809W 4172 07285 0401 -114 -209 074013 014 019 000 03
171000 1433N 05806W 4264 07119 0392 -111 -210 088012 013 019 000 03
171030 1432N 05803W 4431 06838 0379 -098 -213 090011 012 /// /// 03
171100 1431N 05801W 4652 06442 0339 -087 -215 072012 014 /// /// 03
171130 1429N 05758W 4907 06028 0317 -062 -212 080015 016 /// /// 03
171200 1428N 05756W 5179 05608 0295 -034 -209 081015 018 /// /// 03
171230 1427N 05754W 5474 05170 0270 -013 -206 075017 021 /// /// 03
171300 1426N 05751W 5736 04797 0121 +001 -201 086023 025 /// /// 03
171330 1425N 05749W 6027 04404 0131 +020 -193 086025 025 /// /// 03
171400 1423N 05747W 6325 03996 0125 +042 -176 085028 029 /// /// 03
171430 1422N 05745W 6650 03588 0129 +065 -155 073025 026 /// /// 03
171500 1421N 05742W 6964 03207 0120 +094 -135 069025 026 /// /// 03
171530 1420N 05740W 7295 02818 0121 +117 -115 067025 026 /// /// 03
171600 1419N 05738W 7628 02442 0121 +139 -096 071027 027 /// /// 03
171630 1418N 05736W 7970 02078 0129 +158 -074 076026 027 /// /// 03
$$
;

Descending to operational altitude...

[hurricanes1234]

The structure of 05L has improved during the last 3 hours, and this may be because it is suctioning moisture from South America. I think that this storm would reach the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm, then, if the conditions in the Caribbean remain favorable, it could become a major hurricane by the time it hits the 29-31°C waters of the extreme W Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico at the same intensity. Then, it may make landfall somewhere along the coast possibly as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane and dissipate over the southern United States.

__________________________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

[img]

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[ROCK]

hint the CMC comes out first on this site before any others....also it has a 18Z CMC run that is new to me....12Z CMC further south now and up towards SE GOM.

NHC really hasnt moved that much...

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: hint the CMC comes out first on this site before any others....also it has a 18Z CMC run that is new to me....12Z CMC further south now and up towards SE GOM.

NHC really hasnt moved that much...

How strong is on CMC?

[ROCK]

12Z NOGAPS..I stand corrected...even the NOGAPS has this GOM bound and looks like LA...weak system though...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Looks like a Nola landfall

ridge building in though so I dont know if it makes it.....to far out...I also think its a little fast in track...

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon getting close. Curious to see what they find. All our friends on the islands stay safe, and heads up all along the gulf coast. We all know how the models flip flop back and forth this far out. Possibly a couple of intense months ahead for all of us.

[ROCK]

:uarrow: hint the CMC comes out first on this site before any others....also it has a 18Z CMC run that is new to me....12Z CMC further south now and up towards SE GOM.

NHC really hasnt moved that much...

How strong is on CMC?

Luis I can give you track but I have to wait on other sites to update to give you intensity.....sorry...going across Cuba though will knock it down or tear it up if its not that strong....

[bella_may]

12Z NOGAPS..I stand corrected...even the NOGAPS has this GOM bound and looks like LA...weak system though...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Looks like a Nola landfall

ridge building in though so I dont know if it makes it.....to far out...I also think its a little fast in track...

So are you saying you don't think this storm will feel the weakness?

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 021723
XXAA 52175 99145 70580 04248 99013 28046 04022 00111 27039 04518
92796 21846 05028 85527 17837 07021 70171 09858 06524 50589 04574
06517 88999 77999
31313 09608 81710
61616 AF302 0105A CYCLONE OB 08
62626 SPL 1451N05808W 1716 MBL WND 04020 AEV 20802 DLM WND 06523
012447 WL150 04020 083 REL 1453N05805W 171035 SPG 1451N05809W 171
611 =
XXBB 52178 99145 70580 04248 00013 28046 11951 23008 22933 22247
33866 18015 44850 17837 55744 13660 66633 04060 77605 02263 88596
02071 99542 01383 11466 063// 22447 095//
21212 00013 04022 11998 04517 22982 03521 33974 04523 44962 03517
55953 05519 66946 05017 77936 05027 88929 05030 99919 05524 11900
06521 22882 07528 33860 07028 44850 07021 55806 08522 66777 06026
77767 07529 88654 06534 99600 07026 11572 08525 22531 07019 33514
09016 44490 06013 55481 07514 66470 04014 77447 08011
31313 09608 81710
61616 AF302 0105A CYCLONE OB 08
62626 SPL 1451N05808W 1716 MBL WND 04020 AEV 20802 DLM WND 06523
012447 WL150 04020 083 REL 1453N05805W 171035 SPG 1451N05809W 171
611 =
;

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian is the NE Tip of the Yucatan...not too strong.

However, it is in a strengthening phase entering the Gulf with a clear weakness over the central and western Gulf...maybe I could get some rain in San Angelo ...it's hot and dry!

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021726
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 13 20120802
171700 1417N 05734W 8249 01785 0136 +167 -048 073024 026 /// /// 03
171730 1416N 05732W 8541 01488 0143 +175 -022 069023 024 /// /// 03
171800 1415N 05731W 8809 01226 0144 +190 -001 060024 024 /// /// 03
171830 1415N 05729W 9096 00950 0145 +206 -002 053024 025 /// /// 03
171900 1414N 05727W 9401 00663 0144 +222 +018 043023 024 /// /// 03
171930 1413N 05726W 9701 00390 0137 +245 +033 042022 023 021 000 03
172000 1412N 05724W 9785 00301 0125 +258 +047 042023 023 021 000 03
172030 1411N 05723W 9762 00317 0121 +256 +059 042024 025 022 000 00
172100 1411N 05721W 9772 00308 0121 +255 +071 040024 025 021 000 00
172130 1410N 05720W 9772 00308 //// +255 //// 039024 025 020 000 01
172200 1409N 05719W 9770 00311 //// +255 //// 038024 024 021 000 01
172230 1409N 05717W 9772 00307 //// +255 //// 037024 025 021 000 01
172300 1408N 05716W 9772 00307 //// +255 //// 038024 025 021 000 01
172330 1407N 05714W 9771 00307 //// +255 //// 036024 024 022 000 01
172400 1407N 05713W 9770 00309 //// +255 //// 037024 024 021 000 01
172430 1406N 05712W 9769 00309 //// +255 //// 039024 025 021 001 01
172500 1405N 05710W 9771 00308 //// +255 //// 037024 026 021 000 01
172530 1405N 05709W 9772 00307 0119 +255 +122 036024 024 022 000 00
172600 1404N 05708W 9768 00308 0117 +255 +124 033024 024 022 000 00
172630 1403N 05706W 9770 00306 0117 +255 +127 031024 025 021 000 00
$$
;

Operational altitude

[ROCK]

TreasureGirl that was a serious write up....nice way of putting things in perspective...a lot of variables...but I cannot disagree or agree because we have no model consensus. FL to MX right now and at what stength we dont know....

[southerngale]

Yes but unfortunately this model doesn't show a weak system hitting the Texas/Louisiana border, but a very strong system that would rival Rita and Gustav, that is a scary thought. So if it does go to the Tx/La border it is a weak system that does bring in a lot of rain to the drought starved areas in Texas and Oklahoma.

Of course it could go anywhere and the 12z has moved from this area, but fyi... that part of Texas is far from being in a drought. Southeast Texas is very saturated, a complete flip from last summer when we were in a horrible drought.

[ConvergenceZone]

A bit off topic... I wonder where KWT is? Missing seeing his posts and insight...I would think he would be all over this one....

[Dave]